ISIS

Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (December 24 – 31, 2024)

IDF forces continued extensive operations in the northern, central and southern Gaza Strip, eliminating dozens of terrorists and detaining hundreds more during operations at the hospital in Beit Lahia. Palestinian terrorists fired rockets from the Gaza Strip at Jerusalem. Two IDF officers and two soldiers were killed in the fighting; Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) figures continued to accuse Israel of making demands which complicate the completion of the negotiations on a ceasefire and exchange of "prisoners"; A senior journalist affiliated with Hamas' military wing accused the movement of being complicit in a nakba in northern Gaza; The PIJ deputy secretary general accused the Mahmoud Abbas, PA chairman, of rejecting proposals for managing the Gaza Strip after the war;  Israel, Judea and Samaria: An Israeli civilian was stabbed to death by a Palestinian in Herzliya. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria; PA security forces continued their operations against armed terrorists in the Jenin refugee camp. Three members of the security forces were killed, and several civilians, including a journalist, reportedly died. The spokesperson for the security forces accused Hamas of incitement and compared the movement to ISIS.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (December 18 – 25, 2024)

Senior Iranian figures continued to express recognition of the damage to the “axis of resistance” due to the revolution in Syria and the overthrow of the Assad regime, while demonstrating confidence in the ability of the axis to continue operating amid the new circumstances, especially due to the ability of Hezbollah and the other organizations to produce weapons on their own. Iran is reportedly considering smuggling weapons to Hezbollah via flights to Lebanon; The Iranian government spokeswoman said that consultations are underway on reopening the embassy in Damascus. The new Syrian regime denied having ties with Iran and announced its intention to sue Tehran for its damage to Syria; The Iranian president and foreign minister met with their counterparts from Egypt and Turkey and called for exerting pressure on Israel to stop the war in the Gaza Strip and the attacks in Lebanon and Syria; A commander of the armed factions in Jenin admitted that they were receiving assistance from Iran. A terrorist operative in Tulkarm who operated with Iranian funding was eliminated; The Houthis claimed responsibility for nine attacks against Israel using drones and ballistic missiles, including a joint attack with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. Two missiles caused damage in central Israel, injuring 16 people. The Israeli Air Force attacked Houthi targets in Yemen, for the first time in the Sana’a area. 
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) December 16 – 23 , 2024

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began to consolidate its rule in Syria with the appointment of defense and foreign ministers as well as the appointment of commanders of organizations that helped topple the Assad regime to the positions of provincial governors; HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) held meetings with senior foreign officials who arrived in Damascus, including the Turkish foreign minister. The American assistant secretary of state praised al-Shara and announced the removal of the bounty placed on his head; A meeting of senior Druze leaders with al-Shara drew criticism in the community and warnings against cooperation with the new government; It was claimed that the Syrian regime closed the airspace to Iranian planes that made their way to Lebanon; A Hezbollah member of parliament warned that if Israel engaged in military action against Syria, Hezbollah would help Damascus. The prime minister of Lebanon’s interim government instructed the official institutions to collaborate with HTS on security matters; There were reports of continued Israeli airstrikes throughout Syria and the advance of IDF forces in southern Syria. Al-Shara stressed that the removal of Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian militias from Syria had eliminated the justification for Israeli activity against Syria and called for the involvement of the international community; Turkey is reportedly concentrating forces on the border with Syria in preparation for a large-scale operation against the Kurdish militia; The United States carried out airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria and eliminated a senior commander in the Deir ez-Zor area.
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The Power Groups in Syria after the Fall of the Assad Regime

On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamist-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwest Syria. Other groups, sponsored by Turkey, initiated the Operation Dawn of Liberation in the Aleppo area, while another coalition of rebel organizations took control of southern Syria. On December 8, 2024, the rebels occupied Damascus and overthrew the Assad regime; The campaign was managed by three umbrella groups: the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army and the Southern Operations Room. Each was made up of organizations, units and political entities with ideological, religious and ethnic differences and varying interests; Also to be taken into account are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militia led by Kurdish forces and supported by the United States, whose objective is to strengthen Kurdish control in northern Syria and which is currently in conflict with the new power structures in Syria; The factions which have taken control in Syria have yet to issue official statements regarding Israel, even in light of IDF strikes on strategic facilities across Syria and the seizure of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights; Despite the cooperation of revolutionary forces in overthrowing Assad's regime and statements from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) about his desire to establish a government representing all Syrians, the large number of groups and conflicting interests are likely to lead to internal conflicts and exacerbate the chaos within Syria. However, if the parties learn from mistakes made in other parts of the Middle East after the overthrow of authoritarian regimes, such as Iraq and Libya, and manage to find an inclusive formula which meets the interests of the various groups and communities, in ITIC assessment, in the long term opportunities exist for stabilization in Syria.
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ISIS’s attitudes towards Hamas according to editorials in recent issues of ISIS’ al-Nabā’ weekly

During August 2024, the ISIS weekly al-Nabā’ published two editorials referring to Hamas in connection with the war in the Gaza Strip. ISIS rejected Hamas' methods, accusing the Sunni movement of cooperating with the Iranian-led Shi'ite axis and stating that the only way to deal with Israel and the Jews was a jihad (according to ISIS's perception); In ITIC assessment, the editorials are an ISIS attempt to exploit the war in the Gaza Strip, and especially criticism of Hamas, to recruit supporters and operatives. They also indicate ISIS's fear of Iranian expansion in the region and of its Shi'ite allies.
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ISIS calls for jihad in Europe to avenge Muslim deaths in the Gaza Strip

On August 29, 2024, an editorial in the ISIS al-Nabā’ weekly called on Muslims in Europe to carry out "lone wolf" attacks on Jews and Christians in retaliation for the war in the Gaza Strip and European governmental support for Israel; The editorial was published in the wake of two terrorist attacks, one in Germany and the other un Russia, for which ISIS claimed responsibility, stating they were carried out "to avenge the Muslims in Palestine."
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