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ISIS

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (December 18 – 25, 2024)

Senior Iranian figures continued to express recognition of the damage to the “axis of resistance” due to the revolution in Syria and the overthrow of the Assad regime, while demonstrating confidence in the ability of the axis to continue operating amid the new circumstances, especially due to the ability of Hezbollah and the other organizations to produce weapons on their own. Iran is reportedly considering smuggling weapons to Hezbollah via flights to Lebanon; The Iranian government spokeswoman said that consultations are underway on reopening the embassy in Damascus. The new Syrian regime denied having ties with Iran and announced its intention to sue Tehran for its damage to Syria; The Iranian president and foreign minister met with their counterparts from Egypt and Turkey and called for exerting pressure on Israel to stop the war in the Gaza Strip and the attacks in Lebanon and Syria; A commander of the armed factions in Jenin admitted that they were receiving assistance from Iran. A terrorist operative in Tulkarm who operated with Iranian funding was eliminated; The Houthis claimed responsibility for nine attacks against Israel using drones and ballistic missiles, including a joint attack with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. Two missiles caused damage in central Israel, injuring 16 people. The Israeli Air Force attacked Houthi targets in Yemen, for the first time in the Sana’a area. 
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) December 16 – 23 , 2024

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began to consolidate its rule in Syria with the appointment of defense and foreign ministers as well as the appointment of commanders of organizations that helped topple the Assad regime to the positions of provincial governors; HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) held meetings with senior foreign officials who arrived in Damascus, including the Turkish foreign minister. The American assistant secretary of state praised al-Shara and announced the removal of the bounty placed on his head; A meeting of senior Druze leaders with al-Shara drew criticism in the community and warnings against cooperation with the new government; It was claimed that the Syrian regime closed the airspace to Iranian planes that made their way to Lebanon; A Hezbollah member of parliament warned that if Israel engaged in military action against Syria, Hezbollah would help Damascus. The prime minister of Lebanon’s interim government instructed the official institutions to collaborate with HTS on security matters; There were reports of continued Israeli airstrikes throughout Syria and the advance of IDF forces in southern Syria. Al-Shara stressed that the removal of Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian militias from Syria had eliminated the justification for Israeli activity against Syria and called for the involvement of the international community; Turkey is reportedly concentrating forces on the border with Syria in preparation for a large-scale operation against the Kurdish militia; The United States carried out airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria and eliminated a senior commander in the Deir ez-Zor area.
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The Power Groups in Syria after the Fall of the Assad Regime

On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamist-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwest Syria. Other groups, sponsored by Turkey, initiated the Operation Dawn of Liberation in the Aleppo area, while another coalition of rebel organizations took control of southern Syria. On December 8, 2024, the rebels occupied Damascus and overthrew the Assad regime; The campaign was managed by three umbrella groups: the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army and the Southern Operations Room. Each was made up of organizations, units and political entities with ideological, religious and ethnic differences and varying interests; Also to be taken into account are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militia led by Kurdish forces and supported by the United States, whose objective is to strengthen Kurdish control in northern Syria and which is currently in conflict with the new power structures in Syria; The factions which have taken control in Syria have yet to issue official statements regarding Israel, even in light of IDF strikes on strategic facilities across Syria and the seizure of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights; Despite the cooperation of revolutionary forces in overthrowing Assad's regime and statements from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) about his desire to establish a government representing all Syrians, the large number of groups and conflicting interests are likely to lead to internal conflicts and exacerbate the chaos within Syria. However, if the parties learn from mistakes made in other parts of the Middle East after the overthrow of authoritarian regimes, such as Iraq and Libya, and manage to find an inclusive formula which meets the interests of the various groups and communities, in ITIC assessment, in the long term opportunities exist for stabilization in Syria.
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ISIS’s attitudes towards Hamas according to editorials in recent issues of ISIS’ al-Nabā’ weekly

During August 2024, the ISIS weekly al-Nabā’ published two editorials referring to Hamas in connection with the war in the Gaza Strip. ISIS rejected Hamas' methods, accusing the Sunni movement of cooperating with the Iranian-led Shi'ite axis and stating that the only way to deal with Israel and the Jews was a jihad (according to ISIS's perception); In ITIC assessment, the editorials are an ISIS attempt to exploit the war in the Gaza Strip, and especially criticism of Hamas, to recruit supporters and operatives. They also indicate ISIS's fear of Iranian expansion in the region and of its Shi'ite allies.
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ISIS calls for jihad in Europe to avenge Muslim deaths in the Gaza Strip

On August 29, 2024, an editorial in the ISIS al-Nabā’ weekly called on Muslims in Europe to carry out "lone wolf" attacks on Jews and Christians in retaliation for the war in the Gaza Strip and European governmental support for Israel; The editorial was published in the wake of two terrorist attacks, one in Germany and the other un Russia, for which ISIS claimed responsibility, stating they were carried out "to avenge the Muslims in Palestine."
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Summary of ISIS Activity around the Globe in 2023

In 2023, there was a sharp decline (about 50%) in the scope of ISIS’s terrorist activity around the world compared with 2022. The downward trend in the volume of activity had continued since 2020, however, 2023 saw the sharpest decline; ISIS’s activity continued to be focused on Africa, while in Syria and Iraq, ISIS’s core countries, the scope of activity was low; In Afghanistan’s Khorasan Province, there was a 75% decrease in activity and a 50% decrease in casualties compared with the previous year, but the lethality of the attacks increased; The characteristics of ISIS’s terrorist activity in 2023 were similar to those in 2022: The vast majority of terrorist attacks were carried out by relatively small squads, usually equipped with light and medium weapons, and by detonating IEDs. The terrorist attacks carried out by the organization’s operatives in Africa, especially in the Sahel region, were on a larger scale and caused many casualties, albeit less than in 2022; Although ISIS seems to have suffered defeats in most of its provinces of activity (except Africa), it seems that the idea itself persists and that the radical Sunni ideology is still trying and will try in the future to spread its message and gain supporters in countries around the world, including Western countries, by exploiting various events to attract the Muslim population to the idea of the Islamic State.
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ISIS

ISIS is a relatively new Salafist-jihadi Islamic terrorist organization. ISIS is part of a radical Islamist movement that was established around a decade ago as a branch of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. During the course of the fighting against the United States, ISIS established itself in the Sunni areas of western Iraq. During the civil war in Syria, ISIS expanded to Syrian territory as well. In June 2014, ISIS recorded impressive achievements, culminating in the takeover of the city of Mosul, Iraq, the takeover of Al-Raqqah in Syria, and the announcement of the establishment of the Caliphate State (the Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria).

ISIS has branches (provinces) in the Sinai Peninsula, Libya, Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, West Africa and elsewhere. These branches are inspired by ISIS. ISIS carries out terrorist attacks against the forces fighting against it, as well as terrorist attacks outside Syria and Iraq. In addition to fighting against its many enemies in Iraq and Syria, ISIS carries out terrorist attacks abroad, either directly by its operatives, or by instigating its supporters to carry out terrorist attacks in the countries where they live (“ISIS-inspired attacks”). ISIS has carried out several noteworthy attacks in cities in Western Europe, Turkey, the Sinai Peninsula, and Russia. In September 2014, the United States announced the establishment of a coalition for the war against ISIS. The US-led Coalition forces assist the Iraqi army and local forces in Syria through air support, sending experts, and providing weapons and training. In the wake of the war against ISIS, the organization has begun to lose its bases in Syria and Iraq, including the large cities of Mosul and Al-Raqqah.

ISIS places considerable emphasis on propaganda and has established extensive and professional media outlets that use Western tools and images to disseminate its messages. ISIS’s messages are disseminated around the world, trying to offer new meaning to isolated, alienated young Muslims.