Iran

Escalation and Thwarting of Terrorism in Northern Samaria

On the night of August 27-28, 2024, Israeli security forces launched counterterrorism operations in Jenin and its environs, in the Nur Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm, and the al-Far’a refugee camp in the Tubas area. The operation in Jenin continues (as of September 2, 2024), while the other two operations have been completed. An IDF soldier was killed and at least ten other members of the Israeli security forces were wounded; During the operation, the forces killed more than 25 terrorist operatives in airstrikes and exchanges of fire, including commanders of terrorist networks in Jenin and Tulkarm, detained wanted persons, located explosives laboratories and large quantities of weapons, and destroyed IEDs planted on traffic routes; Concurrently with the IDF operations, two terrorist attacks were carried out. Two car bombs driven by terrorists exploded in the Gush Etzion area, wounding three security personnel. Three policemen were shot dead in a shooting attack in the South Hebron Hills. A car bomb was found near the community of Ateret; During 2024, some processes and trends can be identified that contributed to the increase in terrorist activity in Judea and Samaria, especially in northern Samaria, which in the ITIC’s assessment are expected to continue even after the activity of the Israeli security forces: efforts by Hamas and Iran to encourage terrorist activity through incitement, directing terrorist attacks, and smuggling weapons and money; cooperation between armed terrorist networks belonging to various Palestinian organizations; increasing use of powerful IEDs for terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria and inside Israel; increase attempts to carry out shooting attacks targeting Israeli communities in the Seam Zone.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (August 21-28, 2024)

The new Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, spoke with a senior Hamas figure and stressed that Iran would support any agreement to end the war in the Gaza Strip that would be acceptable to the Palestinians and the “resistance”; Senior Iranian officials once again threatened to retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Tehran. However, they stressed that Iran would respond in a time and manner that would not disrupt the talks to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip; Iran praised Hezbollah's retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr in Beirut. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman described Hezbollah's action as a clear indication of a shift in the strategic balance, now working against Israel; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two drone attacks against “vital targets” in Haifa. The claims have not been verified. The pro-Iranian militias are preparing to escalate their attacks against Israel as well as against American bases in the region; The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacking two vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. A Greek oil tanker caught fire following the attack and began leaking oil. All crew members were evacuated safely; Houthi sources reported that the preparation of the target bank for the expected attack against Israel due to the attack against the port of al-Hudaydah had been completed and that the Houthis were also expected to participate in the responses of the “axis of resistance” to the killing of Haniyeh and Shukr.
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Reactions to Hezbollah’s Attack in Retaliation for the Killing of Fuad Shukr

On August 25, 2024, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a combined rocket-UAV attack on military targets in Israel in retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr, the organization's military commander, in an Israeli targeted attack in Beirut on July 30, 2024. Hezbollah claimed the attack had achieved its goals. Earlier, a hundred Israeli Air Force fighter jets carried out a pre-emptive strike against thousands of Hezbollah rocket and missile launchers in south Lebanon which were aimed at northern and central Israel; Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah secretary general, claimed 340 rockets had been fired at IDF bases in northern Israel, after which a large number of UAVs were launched deep into Israeli territory, hitting an aerial defense base and an intelligence base. He added that if the results were not "satisfactory" Hezbollah "reserved the right" to carry out further attacks; Contrary to Nasrallah's claim, the aerial defense and intelligence bases were not attacked. Israel's aerial defense forces, the Israeli Air Force and the Israeli Navy intercepted most of the rocket and UAV launches. One IDF soldier was killed and two were injured by an interceptor explosion near a Navy ship. A woman was injured by shrapnel in Acre and extensive property damage was caused; Iran and the "resistance axis" organizations, including Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, praised Hezbollah for the attack on Israel; Social media users in Lebanon and the Arab world mocked Hezbollah's attack; Hezbollah made an effort to establish the false narrative that the IDF's preemptive attack was unsuccessful, did not cause significant damage to the organization, and claimed success in hitting important targets in Israel. That was because Hezbollah wanted to justify its activities to the citizens of Lebanon, hide the extent of the damage caused to the organization by the preemptive attack, and possibly because the extent of the damage had not yet been fully calculated; In ITIC assessment , after Hezbollah finishes retaliating for the death of Fuad Shukr, its attacks on the northern border will continue according to the organization's initial use of force and "equations," which includes proactive fire near the border and reactive fire further away with varying extent, depending on the strength and nature of the IDF's proactive activity.
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Spotlight on Iran (August 14-21, 2024)

Senior Iranian officials continued to warn of Iran’s intention to retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, stressing that there was no direct connection between the negotiations for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the right of Iran to retaliate against Israel. However, it is evident that the Iranian threats of direct military attack against Israel have decreased and that Iran is also examining other response options.; A senior officer in the IRGC’s aerospace arm, who served as an Iranian military advisor in Syria, died of his wounds after apparently being wounded in an airstrike by US-led coalition forces in Syria at the end of July 2024; The Iranian embassy in Lebanon referred to a video released by Hezbollah documenting an underground facility for storing precision missiles and heavy rockets and threatened that Iran also had the ability to attack its enemies from any point in its territory.; Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued seizure orders for 18 oil tankers linked to Iran, used to finance the Qods Force and Hezbollah; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced two drone attacks against targets in the Golan Heights and Eilat for the first time since July 24, 2024. The claims have not been verified; Gunmen attacked an oil tanker in the Red Sea. There were reportedly no casualties, but fire broke out and the crew lost control of the tanker; The Houthi leader threatened that the “axis of resistance” would inevitably retaliate against Israel, despite the delays.
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Internal Lebanese criticism of Hezbollah in the wake of its escalation and the threat of war

Since Hezbollah began attacking Israel on October 8, 2023, there has been internal criticism in Lebanon of the organization's decision to fight against Israel, claiming it was "supporting" the Gaza Strip. The murder of 12 children and teenagers by a rocket fired by Hezbollah at Majdal Shams on July 27, 2024, and its threats to respond "strongly" to Israel's elimination of Fuad Shukr, its military commander, in Beirut on July 31, 2024, increased the Lebanese public's fear that the situation would deteriorate from border fighting in south Lebanon into an all-out war; Public criticism comes mainly from a handful of politicians and media figures, most of them Christians known to oppose Hezbollah. They accuse Hezbollah of acting contrary to the national interest and endangering the lives of the Lebanese by fighting an unnecessary war for the sake of Iran; More sharp criticism against Hezbollah appears on social networks, where posts call the organization "terrorist" and express public support for the death of Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah. Some public criticism has also appeared in the form of signs opposing the war, but no one accepted responsibility for them; Criticism of Hezbollah is also reflected in the reception received by the Shi'ites who fled the Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut in fear of Israeli attacks; Hassan Nasrallah warned it played into Israel's hands and called on those who did not support the organization "not to stab the 'resistance' in the back." Despite the response, apparently so far the criticism has not had a significant impact on the decisions Hezbollah makes.
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Spotlight on Iran (August 7 – 14 , 2024)

Senior Iranian officials continued to threaten a harsh response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. They stressed Iran’s right to attack Israel despite political messages to Tehran to refrain from a direct attack on Israel. At the same time, it seems that the Iranian leadership continues to hesitate about the desired response, especially due to concerns of deterioration into a direct, unwanted military confrontation with Israel, and possibly even with the United States; Senior Iranian officials sent congratulatory letters to Yahya Sinwar following his appointment as head of Hamas’ political bureau, calling on him to continue the path of “resistance” against Israel; Pro-Iranian militias attacked two American bases in Syria last week. The US Department of Defense confirmed that eight US soldiers had been wounded.; The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks against a cargo ship and two American destroyers in the Gulf of Aden. The claims have not been verified. The Houthi leader continued to threaten retaliation for the Israeli attack on the port of al-Hudaydah, noting that the response of the “axis of resistance” against Israel was delayed for tactical reasons; The US military has destroyed a “significant amount” of Houthi capabilities since the start of operations against the Houthis in November 2023.
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