Iran

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (July 14–21, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities and eliminated operatives as part of continued activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire understandings and against the organization’s efforts to renew its arsenal and military capabilities. Radwan Force facilities in the Beqa'a Valley were attacked and Lebanon claimed that 12 people had been killed; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah secretary general, accused the United States of trying to promote a new agreement which ignored the "thousands of violations" Israel had committed since the beginning of the ceasefire. Hezbollah demanded that Lebanese state institutions put an end to the "useless silence" following the "killing" in the Israeli attacks in the Beqa'a Valley; Thomas Barrack, the American special envoy to Lebanon, met with President Joseph Aoun and was given a new Lebanese response regarding Hezbollah’s disarmament. Barrack said that no progress on the issue would be disappointing, but the United States had no intention of taking punitive measures and only sought to assist and guide. Qassem claimed that relinquishing the weapons would place Lebanon and the "resistance" in existential danger and "allow ISIS to take over the country."; Iran reportedly successfully transfers weapons to Hezbollah through Iraq and Syria using small vehicles instead of large trucks, and the organization also manufactures its own unmanned aerial vehicles and medium-range missiles; A new directive from the Bank of Lebanon, Lebanon's central bank, bans any ties with the al-Qard al-Hassan Association, Hezbollah’s economic wing, due to American sanctions and the Association's financing of terrorism. Hezbollah condemned the decision, and al-Qard al-Hassan said it was continuing its operations and opening additional branches; The Palestinian national security forces reported that they had begun handing over the weapons at some of their headquarters in Lebanon in accordance with the directive of Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas. However, a senior operative in one of the armed "factions" in the refugee camps said that it was unrealistic to ask the Palestinians to disarm without guarantees for their security in light of the "complex" regional situation. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (July 9—16, 2025)

The representative of the Iranian Supreme Leader in the IRGC declared that the Iranian people would not rest until the complete destruction of the “Zionist regime.” The Iranian chief of staff reiterated his warning that in the event of another Israeli attack, Iran would respond even more harshly and decisively than in the past; Iran’s ambassador to Beirut met with a delegation of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party and emphasized Iran’s support for the campaign against Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned Israel’s attacks in the Bekaa Valley and the silence of the UN Security Council; The Iranian media reported extensively on the contacts between Israel and Syria, and the violent clashes between Druze, Bedouins, and Syrian security forces in the south of the country. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned the IDF’s activity in the region. The Iranian reactions to the developments in Syria can be seen as another expression of Iran’s efforts since the collapse of the Assad regime to highlight the instability in the country and the failures of the new regime to deal with the challenges it faces, both in the domestic arena and vis-à-vis Israel; The Houthis’ military spokesman claimed responsibility for three attacks against Israel using a ballistic missile and drones. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed the interception of a ballistic missile and a drone launched from Yemen; The Houthis claimed responsibility for sinking a cargo ship in the Red Sea, claiming that it violated the “sailing ban” to Israel, and confirmed that some of the crew members were being held by them. The Houthis threatened to continue their attacks against vessels trying to reach Israel until the “blockade” over the Gaza Strip is lifted. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (July 7 – 14, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities from the air and on the ground and eliminated operatives as part of ongoing operations to counter Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, a violation of the ceasefire understandings, and against the organization's attempts to rebuild its arsenal and power. The IDF attacked a military headquarters, destroyed underground facilities, and eliminated Hezbollah operatives, an operative of the Iranian Qods Force and a senior Hamas figure in Lebanon; A senior Hezbollah figure claimed that Israel was targeting the "simple" operatives because it was no longer able to attack the organization's leaders. Meanwhile, Hezbollah was reportedly being on high alert and had evacuated some of its leaders and centers, fearing of a large-scale Israeli attack; The Lebanese security forces were instructed to arrest those involved in attacks on UNIFIL forces, which had been increasing due to friction between south Lebanese residents and UN soldiers; The Lebanese leadership said they were committed to ensuring the state's monopoly on weapons, even after submitting their response to the American special envoy Thomas Barack, while Hezbollah continued to defy the demands to disarm. Barack warned that Lebanon would face an existential threat if it did not resolve the issue of Hezbollah's weapons; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem gave an extensive interview in which he claimed that Hassan Nasrallah, the former secretary general, had received information about the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre only half an hour before it began, and that Hezbollah did not enter into a full-scale war against Israel, fearing destruction and American intervention; Hezbollah reportedly began reorganizing in order to merge several of its combat and operational units and redundant institutions. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (July 2—July 7, 2025)

Senior Iranian officials continued to threaten Israel with a harsh response and the use of additional capabilities in the event of another attack on Iran. According to them, Israel has not achieved its objectives in the war; The Iranian media has begun to show the first signs of criticism, along with disappointment over the reluctance of Iran’s regional proxies to open additional fronts against Israel during Iran’s war with Israel; The IDF eliminated a Qods Force operative in Lebanon. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned Israel’s attacks in Lebanon, accusing them of directly targeting the security of Lebanese citizens and economic life in Lebanon; The IDF attacked three seaports and a Houthi power plant in Yemen. The Houthis claimed responsibility for launching four ballistic missiles and eight drones at Israel, most of them after the Israeli attack, and made it clear that they would not stop “supporting” the Gaza Strip. No hits were identified in Israeli territory. Iran and Hezbollah condemned the Israeli attacks; The Houthis attacked two merchant ships in the Red Sea for the first time since November 2024. Both ships sank, and at least three crew members were killed; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq rejected calls to disarm; For the second time in a week, IDF forces operating in southern Syria detained members of a terrorist squad operating in the service of the Qods Force to carry out terrorist attacks. The Islamic Resistance Front in Syria announced the death of its deputy commander and the reorganization of the military command to streamline “resistance” efforts. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 30 – July 7, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities and eliminated organizational terrorist operatives as part of continued activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire understandings, and against renewed efforts by the organization to reconstruct its military capabilities. Facilities were attacked in south Lebanon and in the Beqa'a Valley, and an operative smuggling weapons for Iran's Qods Force was eliminated; Hezbollah took advantage of the Shi'ite Ashura ceremonies to protest the government's handling of the "Israeli violations" and to justify the continuation of the "resistance.". The United States special envoy, Thomas Barack, admitted that the ceasefire was "a complete failure."; Lebanese President Aoun conveyed to American Envoy Barack his country's response to the American proposals regarding disarmament. Barack expressed satisfaction but noted that the United States would not impose its will and the Lebanese should resolve the issue themselves. Senior Hezbollah figures said they were not willing to discuss the possibility of disarming, and secretary general Na'im Qassem claimed that the missiles were "the foundation of our defense capabilities [sic]," but Hezbollah was reportedly discussing the dismantling of heavy weapons, which had become a "burden."; According to reports, ten thousand of the organization's fighters have been taken out of action since the fighting with Israel began, and Hezbollah has lost all its heavy and medium weapons south of the Litani River. The United States imposed sanctions on senior figures in Hezbollah's economic wing, and Lebanese security forces seized $8.2 million which had been smuggled in suitcases to the airport in Beirut; The Lebanese government claimed the collection of weapons from the Palestinian refugee camps was a fait accompli, and the delay was due to disputes within the Fatah movement and the inability of the Palestinian leadership to unify all factions to implement the decision. Read more...

Possible Iranian Terrorist Attacks Abroad Following the Israel-Iran War

Iran uses global terrorism to promote its national interests, including attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in response to actions attributed to Israel, such as the attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and the elimination of senior Iranian and "resistance axis" figures; Iranian terrorist activity is supervised and directed by the Qods Force of the Revolutionary Guards and the Ministry of Intelligence. To obscure direct Iranian involvement, for the most part the attacks are carried out by proxy organizations, especially Hezbollah, local operatives, and criminal organizations; Following the Israel-Iran War, June 13 to 24, 2025, during which Israel eliminated dozens of Iranian commanders and attacked nuclear facilities and other strategic Iranian capabilities, Iran may, as part of its response, attempt to attack Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide. The arrest of one suspect who planned an attack on Israelis in Cyprus and of another who photographed Jewish targets in Germany, both of whom operated under Qods Force direction, were early signs the threat was manifesting itself; In ITIC assessment, the unprecedented extent of the damage suffered by Iran, and its need to restore its image and create a balance of deterrence to keep Israel from taking further action, will increase Iran's motivation to attack Israeli and Jewish targets and assets around the world. As in the past, Iranian efforts to exact a price from Israel in the form of a showcase attack abroad can be expected to continue over time, using the wide range of capabilities, networks and facilities available to Iranian intelligence and security services in various countries, while Israel and friendly intelligence services continue to work against them. Read more...

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