Iran

Hezbollah Communications Devices Explode

On September 17, 2024, thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah operatives for internal communications exploded, killing 12 people and injuring thousands in Lebanon and Syria. The next day, Hezbollah walkie-talkies exploded throughout Lebanon and according to reports, at least 25 people were killed and hundreds were injured; Hezbollah announced that at least 38 operatives were killed within 48 hours, most of them by the explosions. The organization claimed Israel was responsible and threatened a harsh response, even though senior figures continued to refrain from calling for a total war. A commentator affiliated with Hezbollah warned that Israel had launched a "war of extermination" and a "battle without borders" by attacking "civilians"; The Iranian ambassador to Beirut was injured in a pager explosion and was taken to Tehran for medical treatment. Senior officials in Iran accused Israel of a "terrorist attack" and said that they reserved the right to respond to the attack on the ambassador. Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other "resistance axis" organizations condemned Israel and expressed support for Hezbollah and Lebanon. In ITIC assessment, the extensive damage to Hezbollah's communication systems will force the organization to rethink Israel's internal security and intelligence capabilities. In an attempt to understand how Israel successfully penetrated its intelligence and to what extent, the organization will investigate, and will decide how to respond. In the short term, Hezbollah's ability to deploy its forces at the tactical and operational level could be damaged. However, Hezbollah still states that it does not intend to start a total war against Israel. In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah can be expected to react strongly, both to preserve the "balance of deterrence" it has achieved so far with Israel, and given the harm to civilians, to preserve its image as "Lebanon's defender."
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis

The Iranian Supreme Leader emphasized that support for “Palestine” was the duty of all Muslims. The Iranian foreign minister affirmed that Iran would continue to support the “resistance front"; Iran strongly condemned the detonation of Hezbollah operatives’ pagers in Lebanon and offered assistance to the wounded. The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon has also been wounded in the series of explosions.; Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian paid an official three-day visit to Iraq, during which he discussed expanding cooperation between the two countries, especially in the economic sphere; Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani met in Baghdad with commanders of the pro-Iranian Shiite militias; A ballistic missile launched by the Houthis exploded in the air in central Israel, causing no casualties. The Houthis claimed that it was a new hypersonic missile but stressed that it was part of the “fifth escalation phase” of activity against Israel and not a response to the Israeli attack on the port of al-Hudaydah; The Houthis announced the downing of another American UAV. A US official denied a senior Houthi official’s claim that the US would recognize the Houthi regime if the attacks against Israel stopped; The Israeli Air Force intercepted a UAV launched from Iraq. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two additional attacks against targets in Israel. The claims have not been verified. A pro-Iranian militia leader said they were preparing to expand their activity against Israel in coordination with the “axis of resistance.”
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (September 9 – 16 , 2024)

This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 65 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel, including towns and villages which were attacked for the first time since the beginning of hostilities on October 8, 2023. Three IDF soldiers were injured, one of them in the reserves, and property damage was reported. The military wings Hamas and al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya also claimed responsibility for attacks on Israeli territories; Israeli Air Force aircrafts attacked Hezbollah terrorist targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley. Hezbollah announced that six of its operatives were killed during the past week; According to the UN, more than 113,000 people have been displaced from their homes in South Lebanon and 589 have been killed since the beginning of the fighting. The Lebanese media published figures for aid worth tens of millions of dollars given by Hezbollah to the families who remained in their homes in south Lebanon and to the displaced families; Hezbollah continued to promote the false claims that its retaliation for the elimination of Fuad Shakr killed more than 20 people at an IDF base, and linked "the killing" to the resignation of the commander of Unit 8200; Syria: A terrorist operative in the Hezbollah organization in the Golan Heights was killed in an Israeli attack. Syria and Iran denied reports that Israeli special forces raided a military facility for the production of weapons in Masyaf in western Syria.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (September 4—11, 2024)

Amid the ongoing delay in Iran’s response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, senior Iranian military officials have stepped up their statements concerning Iran’s commitment to retaliate against Israel at the appropriate time, albeit with different characteristics than the Iranian attack on Israel in April 2024; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman referred to the IDF’s activity in Judea and Samaria and accused Israel of a “scorched-earth policy.”; The IRGC commander claimed that Iran had attacked 12 Israeli vessels in recent years in response to 14 Israeli attacks on Iranian vessels in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean; The Iranian president went on a visit to Iraq. This is his first visit outside Iran since he was elected; Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen praised the shooting attack at the Allenby crossing; The Houthis announced they had intercepted two American drones in the past week. The Houthi leader reiterated that a response against Israel was imminent and emphasized that support for the Palestinians would continue afterward.
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ISIS’s attitudes towards Hamas according to editorials in recent issues of ISIS’ al-Nabā’ weekly

During August 2024, the ISIS weekly al-Nabā’ published two editorials referring to Hamas in connection with the war in the Gaza Strip. ISIS rejected Hamas' methods, accusing the Sunni movement of cooperating with the Iranian-led Shi'ite axis and stating that the only way to deal with Israel and the Jews was a jihad (according to ISIS's perception); In ITIC assessment, the editorials are an ISIS attempt to exploit the war in the Gaza Strip, and especially criticism of Hamas, to recruit supporters and operatives. They also indicate ISIS's fear of Iranian expansion in the region and of its Shi'ite allies.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (August 28 – September 4 , 2024)

Senior Iranian officials condemned the IDF’s activity in Judea and Samaria and accused Israel of striving to expand the scope of the “killings and crimes” against the Palestinians; Senior Iranian officials continued to threaten to respond to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran but stressed that the response would be calculated and would not play into Israel’s hands; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met in Tehran with Hezbollah’s representative in Iran. The meeting took place as part of the new foreign minister’s ongoing efforts to reaffirm Iran’s continued support for its proxies amidst the backdrop of the change of government in Tehran; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two drone attacks against targets in the Haifa area. The IDF Spokesperson reported the downing of UAVs approaching Israel from the direction of Syria and the east; The Houthis claimed responsibility for two attacks against vessels in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. Hits were reported, but there were no casualties. There are delays at the start of the rescue operation of the tanker MV Sounion, which is on fire in the Red Sea after being hit in a Houthi attack. According to the Houthi leader, preparations are ongoing for a retaliation against Israel, and the Houthis also intend to increase their activities in support of the Palestinians.
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