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Iran

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (March 16-23, 2026)

IDF forces in Lebanon continued from the air and eliminated terrorist commanders and operatives, including the commander of the Radwan special forces, and operatives linked to Iran and to Palestinian terrorist organizations operating in Lebanon. IDF ground forces in south Lebanon continued locating and destroying weapons and terrorist infrastructure and assets attacking Hezbollah targets; Hezbollah issued more than 280 claims of responsibility for attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon using rockets, missiles and UAVs. The IDF reported that Hezbollah launched a ballistic missile which fell in the northern Gaza Strip, but no claim of responsibility was made. Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem said he was confident the organization would stop the "aggression," force Israel to withdraw and release the Lebanese prisoners, and return the displaced persons to their homes. Hezbollah official admitted they had exercised restraint in the face of Israeli strikes for 15 months in order to rebuild Hezbollah's military capabilities; Hezbollah sharpened its rhetoric toward the Lebanese government following the ban on the organization's military activity, with implicit threats to take action against it after the war; Hezbollah terrorist cells were exposed in the UAE and Kuwait; the organization denied involvement; Lebanese president Joseph Aoun continued efforts to advance his initiative for direct talks with Israel, however, Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, opposed appointing a Shi'ite representative to the delegation before a ceasefire and demanded the talks be conducted under the supervision mechanism for implementing the ceasefire agreement; Lebanese prime minister Nawaf Salam accused Hezbollah of dragging the country back into war to assist Iran and avenge the killing of Khamenei. He said he did not want a confrontation with Hezbollah, but was not prepared to submit to extortion; The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that more than 1,000 people had been killed since the beginning of the fighting.
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Hamas Exploits the War in Iran to Tighten Its Civilian and Security Control of the Gaza Strip

The war in Iran and disputes regarding the activity of the new committee for managing the Gaza Strip are delaying the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, according to which Hamas is supposed to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip and disarm; Hamas is exploiting the situation to tighten its security control using violence and force against those who are critical, labeled "collaborators" or members of militias receiving Israeli support. Hamas' growing confidence is reflected in the public presence of armed operatives from the military wing and the security forces; Hamas is also continuing its efforts to rebuild its military capabilities by smuggling arms from Egypt and independently developing weapons which pose a threat to IDF forces in the Gaza Strip and to the State of Israel; Hamas is also strengthening civilian governance in the areas under its control through a wide deployment of police forces, some of whom are openly armed, and the ongoing activity of government ministries. That is manifested by tight supervision over merchants in the markets and the distribution of financial aid to Gazan civilians; In ITIC assessment, as long as Israel and the United States focus their attention on the wars in Iran and Lebanon against Hezbollah, Hamas will continue to entrench its dominance in the Gaza Strip regardless of Israeli attacks, pressure to relinquish control and disarm, and criticism from Gazans over the high cost of living and the collapse of services. Hamas will continue to tightensecurity and military governance, including accelerating its rearming and the recruitm ent and training of operatives. It will continue to strengthen civilian governance, combining violence and intimidation with the battle for hearts and minds to ensure it remains a power in Gaza even if the second phase of the ceasefire agreement is implemented and Hamas (ostensibly) transfers control to the Palestinian technocratic committee.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (March 11-18, 2026)

As part of the military campaign in Lebanon, the IDF eliminated senior operatives acting on behalf of the IRGC. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry protested to Iran over the joint attacks with Hezbollah against Israel and denied that the four Qods Force operatives killed in an Israeli strike were diplomats; The Houthis have continued to emphasize that they are monitoring developments in the campaign involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, but have not yet intervened in the fighting; Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq continued attacks using missiles and drones against American bases and facilities in Iraq, Jordan, and the Gulf states. The military spokesman for Kata’ib Hezbollah was eliminated; In his first message, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, emphasized Iran’s support for the “Resistance Front” and declared it an integral part of the values of the Islamic Revolution; “World Jerusalem Day” rallies were held across Iran despite the military campaign. Senior Iranian officials used the events to stress Iran’s commitment to the Palestinian cause and the destruction of the State of Israel.
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The Iran-Israel War: Possible Iranian-Orchestrated Attacks on Israeli and Jewish Targets

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a combined preemptive strike in Iran which included attacks on dozens of military, security and regime targets across the country, during which Iranian's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of other senior officials were eliminated. Iran responded with missile and UAV attacks on Israel, American facilities in the Middle East and neighboring countries; Along with a military response, concern increased that the regime in Tehran would also carry out revenge attacks on Israeli, Jewish and American targets, using the terrorist infrastructure it has constructed in many countries around the world, which it uses as a tool for attacks and attempted attacks to advance the interests of the Islamic Republic. Shi'ite religious scholars also issued fatwas and calls for jihad; Since the beginning of the war, Iranian terrorist plots against Israeli and Jewish targets in the United Kingdom and Azerbaijan have been exposed and prevented from coming to fruition. In addition, an unknown organization suspected of being inspired by Iran claimed responsibility for four attacks on Jewish institutions in Europe; Israeli sources called on Israeli citizens around the world to take increased precautionary measures, particularly near Jewish and Israeli sites, and Israeli missions reduced they activity and presence; In ITIC assessment, given the damage to the heads of the regime in Iran in general and the elimination of Iran’s leader in particular, and given the risk to the regime’s stability, Iran will seek to exact a high price from Israel and the United States, in addition to the arena of direct hostilities, and to increase pressure to halt the attacks as soon as possible. It is entirely possible that the combination of a desire for revenge and a strategic need for leverage could promote various terrorist networks directed and assisted by Iran to attack Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide, as long as the war continues and after it ends.
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (March 10-17, 2026)

Hamas condemned the "American-Zionist aggression" against Iran and noted Iran's "right" to respond, but not against its neighbors. Hamas also reportedly sent a secret letter to Iran's leader for all fronts to be activated against Israel; IDF forces continued operations within the Yellow Line area in the Gaza Strip and eliminated Hamas terrorists who posed a threat, including those involved in the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack and massacre; Hamas is tightening its "security" governance in the areas under its control in Gaza with public appearances of armed police and operatives from the military wing; The Turkish IHH continues to increase its activity in the Gaza Strip; A Hamas delegation visited Cairo and held talks with Egyptian officials and with representatives of the Board of Peace regarding implementation of the ceasefire agreement; The United States imposed sanctions on four associations that helped fund Hamas' military wing under the guise of humanitarian activity. A suspect involved in a Hamas plot to attack Israeli and/or Jewish targets in Europe was arrested in Cyprus; Shots were fired at IDF forces in Samaria; there were no casualties. An Israeli civilian was stabbed and seriously wounded in Ramat Gan, suspected as a terrorist attack, and an Arab-Israeli was detained; The chairman of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, spoke to the Pope. Abbas said that once the war in Iran ended, an international peace conference should be convened to end the "Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories and Arab territories in Lebanon and Syria."
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (March 9-16, 2026)

IDF forces continued attacking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon from the air and eliminated terrorist commanders and operatives, including the commander of the Nasr Unit, as well as operatives linked to Iran and Palestinian terrorist organizations operating in Lebanon. The forces continued ground activity in south Lebanon to locate and destroy weapons and terrorist infrastructure and assets. Evacuation notices were issued in south Lebanon and in neighborhoods in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut; Hezbollah claimed responsibility for more than 180 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon using rockets, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, some of the attacks simultaneous with missile and UAV launches from Iran; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem claimed the conflict was "defensive" in response to Israeli "aggression" and part of the campaign by Israel and the United States against Iran. Qassem and other Hezbollah figures said they were prepared for a long conflict and would fight until they had achieved their objectives; The president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, is promoting an initiative to open direct negotiations with Israel to end the fighting and regulate the security situation on the border; The Lebanese government continued to place responsibility for the new crisis on Hezbollah and noted the obligation of the state's monopoly over weapons. The minister of information prohibited the National News Agency from referring to Hezbollah as "jihad fighters" or "resistance."; Lebanese authorities stated that at least 850 people had been killed since the beginning of the Israeli attacks and that nearly one million people had been displaced.
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