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The American-Iran Memorandum of Understanding: Ceasefire in Lebanon and the Reactions of the Resistance Axis

According to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Iran and the United States, both countries and their allies will cease military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty will be guaranteed. With the start of direct negotiations between the United States and Iran on the final agreement, a "de-escalation" cell in Lebanon was agreed on, without Israeli participation; Hezbollah praised the MOU, representing it as an expression of Iran's commitment to defending the country and ensuring the continuation of Hezbollah's activities in Lebanon; Lebanese President and Prime Minister felt obligated to welcome Iran's insistence on including the issue of a ceasefire in Lebanon in the MOU, but said their commitment to the direct talks with Israel as the primary way to ensure the country's stability; In Amit Institute assessment, the MOU provided a following wind for Hezbollah's senior leadership, given their perception that Iran could enforce its positions on the United States by leveraging the Strait of Hormuz. The demand for a full Israeli withdrawal, together with the absence of any mention of Hezbollah or a demand for its disarmament provided the organization's leadership with a tool for continuing its campaign against the government in Beirut, which seeks to reduce Hezbollah's influence. Meanwhile the determination of President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam to advance negotiations with Israel, along with American backing for the position, is expected to continue fueling tensions in Lebanon's internal political arena, and to motivate Iran to use the leverage it now possesses over the United States to advance Hezbollah's interests in Lebanon.
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The Deception Plan Practiced by Hamas before the October 7, 2023 Attack (Including documents from the Gaza Strip)

In addition to the military planning for the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack, Hamas used a plan to deceive and mislead Israeli intelligence and decision-makers into thinking the movement did not want a confrontation; An analysis of information in the Amit Institute's possession and based on Hamas documents captured in the Gaza Strip during the Gaza Strip War, found the following elements: Avoidance of direct confrontation with Israel while containing tactical incidents; Creation of the false impression that the Hamas leadership was focused on its internal affairs and the economic situation in the Gaza Strip; Conducting a series of "routine" joint exercises with the other organizations in the Gaza Strip; The renewal of violent incidents along the border; Deception was central to Hamas' strategic preparations for the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre. In Amit Institute assessment, the combined elements of the plan were intended to create the false impression that Hamas had been deterred, especially since Operation Guardian of the Walls in May 2021, and that it neither wanted nor was capable of launching an offensive attack on Israeli territory. Ultimately, the plan successfully misled Israel’s security establishment and decision-makers, who believed Hamas had indeed been deterred and was focused on governance in the Gaza Strip and improving the Gazans' living conditions, and its public military exercises were nothing more than a demonstration of strength.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (June 10—17, 2026)

Senior Iranian officials stressed that the ceasefire in Lebanon and an Israeli withdrawal constitute a central and inseparable part of the memorandum of understanding reached between Iran and the United States to end the war, and that failure to fulfill these demands would be considered a violation; Following the signing of the memorandum of understanding with the United States, the Iranian foreign minister held talks with the Lebanese president and the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, briefing them on its details. The speaker of the Iranian Majles also spoke with his Lebanese counterpart; Prior to the completion of the memorandum of understanding, senior Iranian officials threatened another missile attack against Israel in response to the IDF strike in Beirut; It was reported that senior Iranian military officials continue to operate in Lebanon and are involved in commanding Hezbollah and transferring Iranian aid to the organization; The commander of the Qods Force spoke at length about the conduct of the “Axis of Resistance” during the war, clarifying that the additional fronts came to Iran’s aid on their own initiative without being asked, as they knew it was their duty; The Houthis condemned the president of Somaliland’s visit to Israel; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq mourned senior Hezbollah official Mussa Ali Daqduq, who was eliminated in southern Lebanon, and emphasized his contribution to the “resistance against the American occupier” in Iraq; The “Islamic Resistance Front in Syria” criticized the statement made by the Israeli defense minister that the IDF would not withdraw from the “security zone” in southern Syria.
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (June 9-16, 2026)

IDF forces continued operating within the Yellow Line and other areas of the Gaza Strip, destroying Hamas weapons depots and eliminating terrorists who posed a threat; Palestinians claimed the IDF issued broad evacuation orders in order to demolish buildings and move the boundaries of the Yellow Line; Hamas submitted armed Palestinian organizations' response to the roadmap for the continued implementation of the ceasefire, stating there would be no progress on disarmament before Israel met its obligations under the first phase, including dismantling the militias opposed to Hamas, and withdrew its forces from the Strip; Hamas’ "resistance security" announced the execution of collaborators with Israel who allegedly assisted in the elimination of Palestinians and "resistance" operatives. An independent UN commission of inquiry accused Hamas of committing war crimes and serious human rights violations; Hamas welcomed the memorandum of understanding reached between Iran and the United States. A senior Hamas delegation visited Russia; German authorities revealed a video indicating a Hamas terrorist cell intended to carry out an attack on the anniversary of the October 7, 2023, attack and massacre; Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria. An IDF officer was seriously wounded by an explosive device.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 8-15, 2026)

The United States and Iran formulated a memorandum of understanding on ending military activity, which apparently also includes a ceasefire in Lebanon. Lebanese began returning to the villages of south Lebanon despite warnings from the Lebanese army and Hezbollah; The IDF continued to expand its activity north of the forward defense zone in south Lebanon, along with airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon, in the Beqa'a Valley and on a Hezbollah headquarters in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia. The forces eliminated Hezbollah terrorists and field commanders, including the holder of the Golan Portfolio; Hezbollah issued 130 claims of responsibility for attacks using explosive drones, UAVs, rockets and other weapons. According to the organization, all the attacks targeted IDF forces in south Lebanon but several UAVs fell inside Israeli territory; Lebanese President and Prime Minister reiterated that direct negotiations with Israel were the only way to end the conflict and strengthen state sovereignty; Hezbollah continued to oppose direct negotiations with Israel, while Parliament Speaker and Amal leader Berri mediates between Hezbollah, state authorities and international actors; Hezbollah is combating the erosion of its Shi’ite support base by strengthening the "resistance" narrative.
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Criticism of Hezbollah Increases among the Shi’ites in Lebanon

The heavy human and economic costs of the renewed hostilities started by Hezbollah on March 2, 2026, which come while the Shi'ite community is still recovering from the consequences of Hezbollah's previous hostilities in "support of the Gaza Strip", have intensified signs of dissatisfaction in Hezbollah's centers of power and support, with a shift from a discourse of "resistance, return and reconstruction" to one of economic and social survival; That has been reflected by criticism of the continued fighting and a loss of confidence in Hezbollah's ability to provide an adequate response to the cumulative cost of the war. Support also appears to be growing for political solutions and for strengthening the role and status of the state; The growing frustration has led to the emergence of a Shi'ite search for an ideological alternative to Hezbollah, based on loyalty to the Lebanese state, strengthening its institutions and prioritizing reconstruction and development over the continued involvement of the community in military confrontations; At this stage there are no particular signs of a collapse in Hezbollah's Shi'ite support base or the emergence of an organized political alternative with a real ability to challenge its status. However, the accumulation of destruction, displacement, economic hardship and growing criticism of Iran is creating a broader critical space than has been seen in recent years. In Amit Institute assessment, if the fighting in Lebanon continues and the reconstruction of the state is delayed, such processes may evolve from limited deterioration of the organization's standing to a more significant political and social challenge for Hezbollah and the Shi'ite community.
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