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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (October 7 – 14 ,2024)

IDF forces continued their maneuver in south Lebanon. The forces eliminated hundreds of terrorist operatives, located and destroyed terrorist facilities hidden in civilian sites and located large quantities of weapons. The IDF continued airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and throughout Lebanon, and carried out targeted attacks of senior Hezbollah terrorists and terrorists operatives on the ground. An IDF soldier was killed. A UAV hit an IDF base, killing four IDF soldiers and injuring dozens. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the attack and for 152 attacks on targets in Israel and IDF forces in south Lebanon. Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah deputy secretary general, gave a speech describing the organization's difficulties after the death of Hassan Nasrallah, adding that they were in the process of choosing a new secretary general. He claimed the IDF had no successes in Lebanon, said he supported Hamas and contacts for a ceasefire in Lebanon, not conditioning it in a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. According to increasing reports, Wafiq Safa, chairman of Hezbollah's Executive Council was injured in an Israeli attack. Hezbollah continues the batting for hearts and minds by publishing propaganda videos of attacking IDF soldiers and collecting information within Israel. Lebanon authorities said that more than 2,250 people had been killed in Lebanon since the beginning of the fighting on October 8, 2023, and more than 1.2 million people were displaced. Lebanon's political leadership called for a ceasefire. UNIFIL reported that several of its soldiers were wounded and positions damaged in south Lebanon by IDF activities. The UN and various countries condemned the attacks. The IDF reported that Hezbollah fired rockets and launched missiles from areas close to UNIFIL forces. Syria has reported attacks attributed to Israel in the Damascus and al-Quneitra region.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (October 1 – 9 , 2024)

On October 1, 2024, the IRGC fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Hassan Nasrallah and a senior IRGC officer in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. Most of the missiles were intercepted by the Israeli Air Force and air defense forces, in collaboration with  other countries. After the attack, senior Iranian officials stressed that the attack was carried out as part of their legitimate rights and that Iran did not want further escalation. However, they threatened a powerful response to an Israeli attack against them. Iranian Supreme Leader  and other senior figures continued to express support for the Palestinian “resistance”. President Pezeshkian met with a senior Hamas delegation in Qatar and called for unity in the face of “Israel’s crimes.”  The IRGC denied that Qods Force commander Qaani had been hit in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for 26 attacks against targets in Israel using drones and cruise missiles. Two IDF soldiers were killed by a drone in the Golan Heights.  The pro-Iranian Iraqi militias continued to express willingness to fight alongside Hezbollah in Lebanon and threatened retaliation against American interests if the United States helped Israel attack Iran. The Houthis announced airstrikes using ballistic missiles and drones against Israel. The Israeli Air Force intercepted a ballistic missile and a drone. There were no casualties. In addition, the Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks against two vessels in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (September 25 – October 1, 2024)

Senior Iranian officials continued to express support for Hezbollah and Lebanon following the Israeli attack on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut, in which Hezbollah’s secretary-general and the commander of the Qods Force’s Lebanon Corps were killed. The officials threatened that Iran would retaliate against Israel; The Iranian president accused the United States and Europe of lying when they claimed that a ceasefire would be reached in the Gaza Strip if Iran did not respond to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman claimed that Iran had no agents in the region and that the “resistance” organizations represented themselves; Two ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis at central Israel were intercepted. In response, the Israeli Air Force attacked power plants and a seaport used by the Houthis in Ras Issa and al-Hudaydah. Senior Houthi officials claimed that five civilians had been killed and threatened to continue operating against Israel in support of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 23 attacks against targets in Israel, most of them after the announcement that Nasrallah had been killed. The pro-Iranian militias threatened to escalate their attacks if Israeli military forces entered southern Lebanon.
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Operation Northern Arrows: Reactions in Lebanon and Insights

On September 23, 2024, the IDF launched the Operation Northern Arrows and attacked thousands of Hezbollah terrorist targets in Lebanon from the air throughout the country, for the most part sites where weapons were hidden in civilian buildings and facilities. Senior Hezbollah commanders were attacked in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia, the southern suburb of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold; Hezbollah has carried out dozens of attacks on civilian and military targets in Israel, extending the range of its rocket and missile fire and using new weapons. For the first time, Hezbollah justified its attacks as "defending Lebanon" while continuing to "support" the Gaza Strip, its claim since the beginning of the fighting. Hezbollah attacked the Tel Aviv area with a ballistic missile for the first time; the missile was intercepted. Hezbollah reported that seven of its operatives were killed since the operation began, including Ibrahim Qubaisi, the head of Hezbollah's missile and rocket system. The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq also attacked Israel; Lebanese authorities reported that hundreds of Lebanese had died and hundreds of thousands had left their homes in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley after the IDF's threats to attack buildings where Hezbollah's weapons were stored. Hezbollah was criticized on the social media and accused of destroying Lebanon; In ITIC assessment, as long as no ceasefire has been reached, Hezbollah will continue its efforts to exert pressure on Israel to stop the attacks in Lebanon by attacking Israeli military and civilian targets, even at distances far from the border. Hezbollah is also determined to exhaust Israel as long as a ceasefire has not been reached in the Gaza Strip. It may also target Gush Dan again in response to the continuing targeted attacks on its senior terrorist operatives. However, in ITIC assessment, at this stage neither Hezbollah nor Iran wants to wage a total war against Israel, and Iran is working through diplomatic channels to bring an end to the fighting in Lebanon. If the IDF initiates a land maneuver Hezbollah may reconsider its options and escalate its attacks, along with the other organizations belonging to the "resistance axis."
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (September 18 – 25 , 2024)

Iran strongly condemned Israel’s operations in Lebanon, including the detonation of the communications devices, the killing of Ibrahim Aqil, and the extensive airstrikes. However, at this stage, Iran refrains from committing to direct military involvement in the campaign alongside Hezbollah, focusing instead on diplomatic efforts. These efforts are being led by the president and foreign minister, who are actively participating in the UN General Assembly deliberations.; Additional Iranian threats to avenge Ismail Haniyeh’s death; Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that if the Islamic nation used its internal power, it could remove Israel from the heart of the Muslim community. Iranian President Pezeshkian used his speech at the UN General Assembly to accuse Israel of “genocide” and “crimes against humanity"; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 13 drone and cruise missile attacks against targets in Israel this past week, five of them in one day. The Israeli Air Force fighter jets and air defense units intercepted most of the launches. Three drones exploded in the Golan Heights and the Arava. There were no casualties; The pro-Iranian Shiite militias also announced that they would assist Hezbollah with a shipment of fighters and weapons in the event of an Israeli land invasion of southern Lebanon; A senior security advisor to Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq was killed in an attack attributed to Israel in Syria; Senior Houthi officials threatened that they would continue launching rockets into Israeli territory, saying they are prepared for a long confrontation.
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Reactions to the Elimination of Ibrahim Aqil and the Top Command of the Radwan Force

On September 20, 2024, the IDF eliminated Ibrahim Aqil, the head of Hezbollah's military operations and commander of the elite Radwan Force, in an airstrike in the southern suburb of Beirut. The attack killed at least 14 other Radwan Force commanders, including Ahmed Mahmoud Wahhabi, the head of military training and part of the Force's top command. According to published information, they were holding a meeting to plan a ground attack on Israeli territory. According to the Lebanese ministry of health at least 50 people were killed in the attack; Hezbollah confirmed the death of Aqil, aka "the great jihad commander," the second senior Hezbollah official granted the title since the current conflict with Israel began in October 2023; Senior Hezbollah figures threatened "an appropriate retaliation" and added that Hezbollah would not stop its "support" for the Gaza Strip. Since Aqil's death Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for more than 20 attacks on targets in Israel, including expanding range of its attacks to the Jezreel Valley and the Haifa area. According to Hezbollah, the attacks were not retaliation for the death of Aqil; Iran and the "resistance axis" organizations condemned the Israeli attack on Beirut; In ITIC assessment, the attack on Aqil and the Radwan Force's top command, in addition to the exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, surprised Hezbollah and are regarded as Israel's deviation from the [Hezbollah-dictated] "rules of conflict" in place since October 8, 2023, and a crossing of red lines. In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah can be expected to react strongly, both by further extending the range of its attacks on Israeli territory and by the use of new weapons, and possibly even an attack on a sensitive military target. However, Hezbollah still does not want a total war, especially in view of the significant damage to its most senior military figures, and will try to make Israel return to the "equations" it has been trying to dictate since the beginning of the conflict, while continuing its "support" for the Gaza Strip. Nasrallah will probably also consider Iran's position regarding the nature and strength of the response, partly because at this time Iran also does not want a regional war which could also include a direct confrontation with Israel and the United States. In ITIC assessment, the other "resistance axis" organizations can be expected to increase their attempts to attack Israel in support of Hezbollah.
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