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The Resistance Axis Reacts to the Israel-US War against Iran and the Elimination of Ali Khamenei

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a combined preemptive strike against Iran, attacking dozens of military, security and government targets across the country. Iran’s leader, Ali Khamenei, commanders of the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Khamenei's senior advisors and dozens of other officials were killed in the strikes; Iran confirmed the deaths of Khamenei and the others and announced the establishment of a temporary leadership council. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched Operation True Promise 4, launching missiles and UAVs at Israel and American bases and vessels across the Middle East; The resistance axis organizations in Lebanon, the Palestinian arena, Yemen, Iraq and Syria condemned the attack and claimed its objective was to support the vision of a "Greater Israel." They issued mourning notices for Khamenei’s death, stating his decades-long support for the "resistance" and said they would continue their activity against the "Zionist enemy"; On the night of March 1, 2026, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel and claimed it was in response to the elimination of Khamenei, after the organization had previously threatened it would retaliate if Iran’s leader were attacked. Hezbollah intervened despite the fact that the Lebanese leadership had exerted pressure on it in an attempt to prevent the country from being dragged into external conflicts; Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) said they would not open a support front for Iran because of the damage done in the Gaza Strip War and the Houthis have not yet announced a renewal of attacks against Israel and against vessels in the Red Sea. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for launching UAVs at American bases in the Kurdish region in the north of the country and Baghdad following strikes on militia bases which killed at least six operatives; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah’s response was the result of Iranian pressure, despite the calls in Lebanon that it not respond. However, its commitment to Iran outweighed its loyalty to Lebanon and led to an extensive, forceful Israeli response. So far the Houthis have not responded but may join the fighting, although their considerations differ from those of Hezbollah.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 18-25, 2026)

The chairman of Iran’s “Intifada and International Quds Day Headquarters” claimed that the view of the founder of the Islamic Revolution, who characterized Israel as a “cancerous tumor,” has now spread throughout the world and that the Palestinian issue has become the main issue on the international agenda; Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, concluded his term in Beirut and returned to Iran. Mohammad-Reza Raouf Sheibani was appointed to serve a second term as ambassador to Lebanon; IRGC officers are reportedly leading Hezbollah’s preparations for the possibility of an Israeli attack and a US strike against Iran; It was claimed that the senior Shiite cleric in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, conveyed a message to the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad stating that in the event of a US strike resulting in harm to Iran’s Supreme Leader, he would issue a fatwa calling for jihad against US forces in Iraq; The Houthi leadership condemned remarks by the US ambassador to Israel regarding “Greater Israel” and called on Muslim states to act jointly against the “existential threat"; The Houthis have reportedly raised their level of alert in preparation for a possible US strike on Iran and are preparing to employ advanced weapons. A pro-Iranian Shiite militia in Iraq unveiled an underground facility containing drones. 
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Iran Efforts to Circumvent the Sanctions by Smuggling Oil

Iran’s security forces, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, use the sale of oil to finance their activities and those of their proxy terrorist organizations in the Middle East; In September 2025, the UN Security Council activated the snapback mechanism, which reinstated the sanctions which had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear agreement because of Tehran’s failure to meet its international obligations following the Iran-Israel War and the strike on its nuclear facilities; In an attempt to circumvent American and international sanctions, Iran operates a complex network of intermediaries, front companies and a ghost fleet of oil tankers. At the center stands Sepehr Energy Jahan, which serves as a front company for Iran’s armed forces and has been under American sanctions since November 2023; A cyberattack on the company’s servers and a massive leak of internal documents provided evidence of how Sepehr Energy Jahan conducts its illegal activity, exposing a long list of participating front companies, oil tankers and business partners. The documents also show that China remains Iran’s primary oil consumer despite international sanctions; In ITIC assessment, until the mechanisms activating the snapback restrictions go into effect, Iran will advance covert sanction-evasion activity, within which Sepehr Energy Jahan and its CEO Majid Azami play a central role, while continuing its prohibited business relationship with governmental elements in China.
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Hamas Media as Reflected in Documents Brought Back from the Gaza Strip

Hamas' media system is an extensive network which integrates overt and covert, formal and informal communication channels and targets diverse audiences. It serves as a propaganda and incitement tool in Hamas' battle for hearts and minds; Hamas documents brought back by the IDF during the Gaza Strip War showed that Hamas exercises full control, administratively, financially and strategically over its affiliated media outlets in terms of content and messaging, although such bodies are represented as independent, allowing Hamas to maneuver communicationally, diplomatically and militarily; The documents revealed that Hamas' media activity was based on an orderly, multi-year master program divided into 25 projects, each with quantifiable objectives, content production quotas, timetables and resource allocations; An important element of the program was a propaganda campaign to sabotage Israel's resilience by disseminating fake news, funding targeted advertisements for audiences in Israel, operating satirical pages to mock Israeli leaders and symbols, sowing doubts to demoralize the Israeli public; Hamas invests considerable resources in shaping an English-language narrative tailored to the West to mobilize legitimacy for the "resistance"  and to defame and demonize the State of Israel; Internal audits reveal that Hamas' media outlets suffer from deficits, bad debts and poor asset management. The findings indicate absolute dependence on the transfer of funds from Hamas' coffers, including via Turkey; In ITIC assessment, the documents show that the affiliated media are at the core of Hamas' battle for hearts and minds, and make the information department particularly important in formulating media policy and managing all the media institutions operating in the service of Hamas, including those the organization does not define as officially affiliated with it.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (February 16-23, 2026)

The IDF continued attacking Hezbollah terrorist targets in south Lebanon as part of enforcing the ceasefire agreement of November 2024 and to prevent the organization's renewed military build-up, possibly in preparation for attacks on the State of Israel. At least eight Hezbollah operatives from the organization's rocket array were eliminated in attacks on Hezbollah headquarters in the Beqa'a Valley; Given the growing tension between the United States and Iran, Hezbollah continued to express full support for Tehran and said a military confrontation would be met with "significant deterrence." According to reports, Iranian military officers were managing Hezbollah's preparations for a possible confrontation with Israel; Hezbollah's secretary general said the organization did not want to initiate a war, however they would not disarm since such a move served Israeli interests. He also said he was confident the organization would overcome the difficulties and claimed the right to "resist"; Hezbollah reportedly agreed in principle to a new Lebanese security agreement with Israel, according to which the organization would not attack Israel and would accept supervision of its weapons north of the Litani River, in exchange for the cessation of Israeli attacks, withdrawal of IDF forces and release of Lebanese prisoners; The Lebanese government approved the army's plan to implement the second phase of disarming Hezbollah north of the Litani River within four to eight months, without a specific timetable; Hezbollah ministers did not object; The IDF attacked a Hamas headquarters in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp in Sidon; Hamas confirmed the death of two operatives.
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Hamas Deploys to Recover and Retain Its Military Strength and Influence over the Gaza Strip

According to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, Hamas will transfer authority in the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian technocrat committee, and the movement and all other armed terrorist organizations will disarm. In practice, the start of the new administration committee's practical activity has been delayed. It has not yet entered the Strip and Hamas is exploiting its absence to consolidate its civilian and security governance, accompanied by a public refusal to disarm the "resistance"; The Israeli security establishment has said that since the ceasefire went into effect in October 2025, Hamas has accelerated its economic and military buildup. It is relying on locally produced weapons and smuggling weapons from Egypt using UAVs, and filling its coffers by taxing the entry of humanitarian aid trucks and smuggling cigarettes and other goods, which generate millions of shekels in revenue. In addition, thousands of new operatives have been recruited and trained and infrastructures serving security needs have been rehabilitated; In ITIC assessment, although Hamas ostensibly claims it is prepared to relinquish control in favor of the new technocrat administration dictated by the United States and the mediators, it is building a network which will enable it to remain significant and an influential power factor on "the day after" and do everything in its power complicate its disarmament. To that end, it is strengthening its military arrays by producing and smuggling weapons, recruiting and training new operatives and renewing its facilities, some of which operate in civilian buildings. It is also integrating its operatives into the civilian mechanisms and security forces of the technocrat committee. In addition, a future opening of the Rafah Crossing for the transfer of goods will in all probability again make it possible for Hamas to smuggle in materials to assist its military reconstruction. As long as nothing is done to halt Hamas' military buildup and disarm the movement along with the establishment of an effective alternative administration in the Gaza Strip which has active international support and no Hamas personnel, the movement will remain an active threat to IDF forces and to the State of Israel.
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