Iran

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (October 30 – November 6, 2024)

This week, threats from senior Iranian officials intensified in response to Israel’s strike on Iran on October 26, 2024. The Iranian Supreme Leader declared that the United States and Israel would face a crushing response for their actions against Iran and the “resistance front.” Senior IRGC officials stressed that Iran’s response is certain and will be decisive. The Iranian president said his country would respond to the attack, but if Israel agrees to a ceasefire, it may influence the nature and severity of the response; Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi spoke by phone with his counterparts in Qatar and Egypt and discussed the continued efforts to establish a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon; The Qods Force commander sent a letter to Hezbollah’s incoming secretary-general, Naim Qassem, stressing Iran’s support for the organization; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 33 claims of responsibility for attacks against targets in Israel. The Saraya Awliya al-Dam militia claimed responsibility for four more attacks. The IDF Spokesperson announced the interception of more than ten drones, with no casualties. Senior militia officials announced that they would escalate the attacks against Israel and expressed support for an Iranian response from Iraqi territory as well; An Iraqi militia released a video threatening that its operatives in the Golan Heights would invade Israeli communities; The Houthis threatened to continue their attacks against vessels in the Red Sea despite attempts by shipping companies to conceal their alleged ties to Israel. It is claimed that the Houthis are earning $180 million per month from bribes paid by companies trying to prevent damage to their vessels.
Read more...

The pro-Iranian Militias in Iraq: Characteristics of their Activity since the Beginning of Iron Swords War

On November 2, 2023, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq began attacking Israel under the name “Islamic Resistance in Iraq.” The attacks have been intended to support Hamas in the Gaza Strip, based on the concept of “unity of arenas” promoted by Iran through its proxies in the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. To that end, a joint operations room of the “axis of resistance” was established, under Iranian supervision; So far, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has issued 242 claims of responsibility for attacks against more than 285 targets in Israel, mostly using drones and several cruise missiles. In addition, 12 attacks were carried out in cooperation with the Houthis in Yemen. More than half of the attacks targeted sites in Eilat, the Golan Heights, and Haifa. Drones launched from Iraq have caused the deaths of two IDF soldiers, injuries to several soldiers and civilians, and property damage. However, the vast majority of the launches did not penetrate Israeli territory; In the ITIC’s assessment, as long as the fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon continues, the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are expected to persist in their attacks against Israel as part of the “support front” of the “axis of resistance,” in an attempt to achieve a psychological victory with a significant strike on Israeli territory and to solidify their standing among the pro-Iranian proxies in the Middle East. In the ITIC’s assessment, if there is further escalation in the direct conflict between Iran and Israel, Tehran may instruct the militias to intensify their attacks against Israel and against American targets in the Middle East and may even provide them with more advanced weapons. In addition, if Iran directly attacks Israel again, the Iraqi militias may take part in the attack under Iran’s guidance and coordination.
Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (October 28 – November 4 ,2024)

The IDF continued its maneuvers in south Lebanon. The forces intercepted Hezbollah terrorist operatives, located and destroyed facilities concealed in civilian sites, and found large quantities of weapons. Israeli Air Force airstrikes targeted Hezbollah positions in Beirut and throughout Lebanon, and targeted strikes eliminated terrorist senior figures and field operatives. An IDF soldier wounded in south Lebanon died his injuries; Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 186 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon. Rockets, missiles and UAVs were launched at the north of Israel and further south, reaching as far as Tel Aviv and causing significant property damage; Hezbollah announced that Sheikh Na'im Qassem has been appointed the organization's new secretary general, replacing Hassan Nasrallah; The IDF eliminated several senior Hezbollah terrorist operatives who commanded sectors in south Lebanon and were responsible for firing rockets into Israeli territory. A Hezbollah naval operative was taken by the IDF in north Lebanon and removed to Israel for questioning; A senior Hezbollah-affiliated commentator claimed Israel would increase its attacks on Lebanon in the near future to completely destroy Lebanese villages near the Israeli border; Lebanese authorities reported that more than 2,968 people had been killed in Lebanon since the outbreak of hostilities on October 8, 2023; Senior Lebanese figures continued to call for a ceasefire and the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701; The IDF conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah arms warehouses in the al-Qusayr area near the Syria-Lebanon border. The IDF also detained an operative in Syrian territory who was working for Iran to gather intelligence on IDF forces near the border area.
Read more...

Sheikh Na’im Qassem, Hezbollah’s Newly – Appointed Secretary General

On October 29, 2024, Hezbollah announced that the Shura Council had appointed Sheikh Na'im Qassem as the organization's new secretary general, replacing Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut on September 27, 2024. In his first speech Qassem pledged to continue in Nasrallah's path and said Hezbollah would end the current war against Israel only on its own terms; Qassem is one of Hezbollah's founders and has served as the deputy secretary general since 1991. However, he has no military training and is considered the organization's chief ideologue, focusing on Hezbollah's political and social aspects; One of Hezbollah's most important spokesmen, in his books and public statements he has justified the "resistance" against Israel and denied its right to exist. He has also admitted that Hezbollah operates according to directives from Iran; Qassem was not considered the leading candidate to replace Hassan Nasrallah, but he was appointed by default after the elimination of Hashem Safi al-Din, the head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, who had been marked as Nasrallah's designated successor. In ITIC assessment, the objective of appointing Na'im Qassem was to represent continuity within the organization's leadership during ongoing combat with Israel, with Hezbollah likely to choose a permanent secretary general after a lasting ceasefire has been achieved. Despite Qassem’s long role in Hezbollah, his lack of military experience means Iran can be expected to oversee Hezbollah’s fighting by means of representatives from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and its Qods Force, and to influence Hezbollah's combat against Israel and decisions regarding a potential ceasefire.
Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (October 15-30, 2024)

Senior Iranian officials expressed condolences for the deaths of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and senior Hezbollah figure Hashem Safi al-Din, stressing that their deaths would not harm the “resistance,” Hamas, and Hezbollah and that Iran would continue its support for them. Senior regime officials congratulated Naim Qassem on his appointment as Hezbollah secretary-general; The level of threats from Iran following Israel’s attack on Iran has increased over the past week. Senior Iranian officials, led by Supreme Leader Khamenei, threatened retaliation against Israel, although they did not commit to the timing or characteristics of the response; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has paid extensive regional visits, during which he met with senior Arab officials and discussed the Israeli attack on Iran and efforts to establish a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon; IRGC experts are reportedly supervising Hezbollah’s battles against IDF forces in southern Lebanon; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 36 attacks against targets in Israel. The Saraya Awliya al-Dam militia claimed responsibility for 14 additional attacks. The IDF Spokesperson said several drones had been intercepted. There were no casualties. The militias threatened to start a new phase of fighting against Israel, using new weapons; The Houthis claimed responsibility for two attacks against Israel with ballistic missiles and drones, with no casualties. At least five Houthi fighters were reportedly killed in the fighting in southern Lebanon alongside Hezbollah forces. The Houthis claimed responsibility for additional attacks against vessels in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. No casualties or damage have been reported. US aircraft attacked Houthi underground weapons depots.
Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (October 9-15, 2024)

Iranian officials continued to threaten that they would retaliate for any possible Israeli attack on Iran following the Iranian missile attack on Israel on October 1, 2024; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Qatar, Iraq, and Oman this week as part of his diplomatic trip to the region amid the recent developments in Lebanon and the fear of an Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack; Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Majles, visited Lebanon and toured Beirut’s Dahiyeh. The visit reflects Iran’s increasing efforts to maintain its influence in Lebanon amid the severe blow to Hezbollah’s leadership and Israel’s ongoing military moves in Lebanon; The IRGC announced that the body of IRGC’s Qods Force Lebanon Corps commander Abbas Nilforoushan had been recovered. Nilforoushan was killed in an Israeli Air Force airstrike against the Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut, in which Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah was also killed; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for 15 drone attacks against targets in Israel. The militias are preparing for a possible Israeli attack in Iraq and have threatened to retaliate against Israel and American interests in the event of an attack on Iran. In addition, the militias threatened to carry out suicide bombing attacks against IDF forces in southern Lebanon if approval for such actions was obtained. Attacks attributed to the United States hit targets of pro-Iranian militias in Syria; The Houthis claimed responsibility for two attacks against vessels in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. There were no casualties.
Read more...