Iran

Cooperation between the Shi’ite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen

The cooperation between the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen has intensified in recent weeks, as reflected in announcements of joint UAV and cruise missile attacks on Israel "in support of the Palestinians" and in response to Israel's [alleged] "massacres" in the Strip Gaza; Between June 6, 2024 and August 4, 2024, the Iraqi militias and the Houthis announced 12 joint attacks on Israel, most of them involving UAVs and some involving cruise missiles. Apart from one incident in which the IDF confirmed the interception of a UAV, there has been no practical verification of the other claims of responsibility; The increasing cooperation between the Shi'ite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen is part of the concept of the "unity of the arenas" against Israel promoted by the Iranian regime, especially since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip; In ITIC assessment, following the Israeli attack on the Houthi-controlled port city of al-Hudaydah in Yemen, carried out in response to the Houthis' ongoing attacks against Israel and the launching of the UAV that exploded in Tel Aviv, the cooperation between the Houthis and the Iraqi militias is expected to increase and escalate. It is also expected to be reflected in the "resistance axis" response to the killing of Isma'il Haniyeh, head of Hamas' political bureau in Tehran, attributed to Israel, and in response to Israel's elimination of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's most senior military commander, in Beirut. Read more...

Reactions to the Deaths of Fuad Shukr and Isma’il Haniyeh

In the southern suburb of Beirut on July 30, 2024, the IDF eliminated Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's most senior military commander. The attack was carried out in response to a rocket fired by Hezbollah which hit the Druze village of Majdal Shams and killed 12 children and teenagers. Hezbollah confirmed the death of Shukr, stating that he was one of Hezbollah's founders and had led its military operations against Israel. Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah stated that a new phase in the war had begun, claiming that revenge would; On July 31, 2024, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas announced that Isma'il Haniyeh, head of Hamas' political bureau, had been killed in an attack on the building where he was staying in Tehran, having come to participate in the swearing-in of Masoud Pezeshkian, the new Iranian president. They claimed Israel was behind the attack. Israel did not claim responsibility. Hamas' military wing has threatened to retaliate. The Palestinian Authority (PA) and other Palestinian organizations issued; Iran's leaders made it clear that they would respond to Haniyeh's killing in Tehran; The "resistance axis" condemned Israel's elimination of Shukr in Beirut and the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran, and threatened to retaliate against Israel and the United States; there were condemnations in the Arab-Muslim world, concern of escalation was expressed in the international arena; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah's response can be expected to exceed the parameters and the self-determined "equations" according to which it has operated from the beginning of the fighting. Hezbollah will most likely employ concentrated firepower, including the use of missiles and UAVs to attack military and civilian sites in northern Israel which so far have not been its targets, increasing the range of attacks on Israeli territory, possibly as far as the center of the country. Iran can also be expected to attack Israel with missiles and UAVs. Hamas will try to increase terrorist activity in Judea and Samaria and attack inside Israeli territory as well. In the short term, the elimination of Haniyeh may also affect efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip and to release the hostages. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran (July 24 – 31, 2024)

Iranian leaders condemned the attack in which the head of Hamas’ political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that “the criminal and terrorist Zionist regime prepared the ground through this operation for a heavy punishment for it"; The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the killing of senior Hezbollah operative Fouad Shukr in Lebanon. Senior Iranian officials warned an Israeli offensive initiative will lead to unexpected and severe consequences and expand the war in the region; Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian held a series of meetings with senior members of the “axis of resistance” who came to Tehran to participate in his swearing-in ceremony; The Shiite pro-Iranian militias in Iraq continue their preparations for the possibility of a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon; The US attacked a base of pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, killing at least four. Previously, American bases in Iraq and Syria had been attacked. There were no casualties; Senior Houthi officials continued to threaten retaliation against Israel following the attack on the port of al-Hudaydah. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran (July 17 – 24, 2024)

Iran’s Supreme Leader declared at a meeting with the president-elect and members of the Iranian Majles that Gaza remained the first priority issue of the Muslim world. The Supreme Leader’s senior military said that if millions of Shiite pilgrims turned to Jerusalem to liberate “Palestine,” Israel would not be able to resist them. Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian praised the Palestinians’ “resistance” against Israel and stressed Iran’s continued support for the Palestinian people; Iran’s acting foreign minister warned at a UN Security Council meeting that any attack on Lebanon would be met with a “decisive and regret-inducing” response; Iran strongly condemned the Israeli attack in Yemen; As the conflict between the Houthis and Israel escalated, the Houthis threatened to retaliate strongly against military targets in Israel. “Sources” said attacks would be carried out in cooperation with the “axis of resistance” and would be directed at Israeli ports and energy sites. At the same time, the Houthis continued to report attacks against vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for four attacks against targets in Israel. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed that two UAVs had been intercepted on their way to Israel from the east. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran (July 10 – 17, 2024)

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking with Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, stressed that his government would place the Palestinian issue at the top of his list of priorities and would work to stop the war in the Gaza Strip; Qods Force commander visited several countries in the region and met with commanders and senior members of the “resistance front” to emphasize Iran’s continued support for the pro-Iranian axis; Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri warned that if Israel tried to expand the war to other arenas, it would cause itself further damage and benefit the “resistance"; The Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed joint responsibility for launching drones at a ship in the Mediterranean. In addition, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for three attacks of its own against targets in Israel. There has been no confirmation of the claims from other sources; The Houthis reported attacks against civilian vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The US Central Command confirmed two of the attacks, one of them against an Israeli-owned ship. There were no casualties, but damage was caused. In addition, the Houthis claimed responsibility for launching drones at Eilat. There has been no verification of the claim from other sources. Read more...

Considerable effort by Iran to emphasize the continued support for the “resistance front” following the election of President Pezeshkian

Following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as president of Iran on July 5, 2024, there has been a marked effort by Iran to emphasize its commitment to continuing support for the “resistance front” it leads. This is apparently due to concerns among elements of the pro-Iranian axis in the region about the consequences of the election of the reformist-leaning president, especially in view of the ongoing Iranian-led regional campaign and the fear of a possible deterioration into an all-out confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. There have been several expressions of the effort to demonstrate continuity in the policy of support for the pro-Iranian axis in the region: messages of support from the president-elect to senior members of the “resistance front; Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani’s visit to the region in recent days and his meetings with senior members of the “resistance front”; Iranian officials’ comments about continuity of regional policy based on the perception that strengthening the “resistance” is one of the permanent pillars of the Islamic Republic; commentaries in the conservative Iranian media presenting Pezeshkian’s messages of support for the leaders of the pro-Iranian axis as an expression of his commitment to them. Read more...

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