The Rebel Attack in Syria: What does it mean for Israel?
On November 27, 2024, armed organizations opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamic-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression Operation (Rad' al-Udwan) against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwestern Syria. On November 30, 2024, Turkish-sponsored rebel organizations Operation Dawn of Liberation initiated Operation “Dawn of Liberation” (Fajr al-Hurriya) in the Aleppo region, attacking Syrian regime forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-Arab militia supported by the United States. The rebels took control of Aleppo and Hama, as well as military bases, airfields and security facilities operating under the sponsorship of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah; Iran and "resistance axis" organizations expressed support for the Syrian regime, making diplomatic efforts to calm the situation and deploying forces to Syria. Iran also accused the offensive of being an "Israeli-American conspiracy" whose objective was to weaken the "resistance axis."
According to the rebels, they wanted to prevent Syrian regime forces from attacking the opposition enclave in northwestern Syria. They also noted that the "resistance axis" focus on fighting Israel and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from Syria to Lebanon were key factors in their considerations for initiating the offensive at this time; In ITIC assessment, although the rebels currently focus on fighting Assad's regime and its allies, and Islamic-jihadist takeover of advanced weaponry, including fighter jets, could pose a long-term threat to Israel. In addition, the increasing instability in Syria could trigger a new wave of displaced persons who might also move toward Israel's border. However, the rebels' offensive also poses a threat to Iran and the "resistance axis," which have used Syria as a route for transferring weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and a location from which to attack Israel. The focus of Iran and the militias on fighting the rebels, who have also taken control of strategically important "resistance axis" sites, may hinder their ability to assist Hezbollah in the reconstruction process after the fighting against Israel.
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