Iran

The Rebel Attack in Syria: What does it mean for Israel?

On November 27, 2024, armed organizations opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamic-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression Operation (Rad' al-Udwan) against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwestern Syria. On November 30, 2024, Turkish-sponsored rebel organizations Operation Dawn of Liberation initiated Operation “Dawn of Liberation” (Fajr al-Hurriya) in the Aleppo region, attacking Syrian regime forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-Arab militia supported by the United States. The rebels took control of Aleppo and Hama, as well as military bases, airfields and security facilities operating under the sponsorship of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah; Iran and "resistance axis" organizations expressed support for the Syrian regime, making diplomatic efforts to calm the situation and deploying forces to Syria. Iran also accused the offensive of being an "Israeli-American conspiracy" whose objective was to weaken the "resistance axis." According to the rebels, they wanted to prevent Syrian regime forces from attacking the opposition enclave in northwestern Syria. They also noted that the "resistance axis" focus on fighting Israel and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from Syria to Lebanon were key factors in their considerations for initiating the offensive at this time; In ITIC assessment, although the rebels currently focus on fighting Assad's regime and its allies, and Islamic-jihadist takeover of advanced weaponry, including fighter jets, could pose a long-term threat to Israel. In addition, the increasing instability in Syria could trigger a new wave of displaced persons who might also move toward Israel's border. However, the rebels' offensive also poses a threat to Iran and the "resistance axis," which have used Syria as a route for transferring weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and a location from which to attack Israel. The focus of Iran and the militias on fighting the rebels, who have also taken control of strategically important "resistance axis" sites, may hinder their ability to assist Hezbollah in the reconstruction process after the fighting against Israel.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 27 – December 4, 2024)

Iran and the militias of the “axis of resistance” presented the ceasefire in Lebanon as a “great victory” for Hezbollah and the “resistance front” and as a defeat for Israel. According to them, Israel was forced to agree to the ceasefire after it failed to defeat Hezbollah and realize its goals in the war. The militias made it clear that they would continue to operate even though the ceasefire violated the principle of “unity of the arenas"; Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, who was wounded in the Hezbollah pager attack in September 2024, has returned to Beirut. The Iranian foreign minister and the IRGC commander stressed their country’s continued support for Hezbollah; The IRGC deputy commander warned that the residents of Israel should know that the events of the past year would be like a “walk in the park” for them compared to what awaits them in the future; An extensive Iranian cyber operation was uncovered that targeted hundreds of Israeli public figures and senior officials in preparation for an assassination operation; The Houthis claimed responsibility for three joint attacks with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq using drones against three targets in Israel, for the first time since July 2024. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed that three drones that did not penetrate Israeli territory had been intercepted; The militias in Iraq continued to refrain from issuing claims of responsibility for attacks against Israel. A senior member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied that understandings had been reached with the Iraqi government on the cessation of attacks against Israel; The rebel offensive in Syria: A senior Iranian officer was killed in the rebel attack in Syria. Senior Iranian officials claimed that this is an “American-Zionist plot.” Tehran focused on political-diplomatic activity, emphasizing its support for the Syrian regime and its readiness to provide any necessary assistance. It has been reported that the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have begun moving forces into Syria. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 20 – 27, 2024)

Iran and the Shiite militias welcomed the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, even though it violates the idea of “unity of the arenas,” and claimed that it was achieved thanks to Hezbollah’s steadfastness; They also praised the decision of the International Criminal Court in The Hague to issue arrest warrants against Israel’s prime minister and former defense minister. However, the Iranian Supreme Leader said an arrest warrant was not enough and that the senior Israeli officials should be executed; Senior Iranian officials reiterated the achievements of the “resistance front” in the campaign against Israel, claiming that Israel is not achieving its goals and is surviving only thanks to American support; Russia reportedly prevented an Iranian plane carrying weapons to Hezbollah from landing at the Hmeymim airbase in Syria, which is under its control; Amid Israeli threats to act against the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued only four statements claiming responsibility for drone attacks against targets in southern Israel. The IDF Spokesperson reported the interception of a drone in the Red Sea and the downing of three additional drones in Israeli territory, with no casualties. It was reported that militia leaders had moved to Iran for fear of an Israeli attack; More than 100 pro-Iranian militia operatives were killed in an attack attributed to Israel in the city of Palmyra in the Syrian Desert; An American think tank issued a report estimating that the pro-Iranian militia that claimed to have attacked Israel from Saudi territory is a fictitious organization of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq; The US Department of Defense reported that the pro-Iranian militias had carried out more than 200 attacks against American targets in the Middle East since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip; The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack against Israel using a ballistic missile. The IDF Spokesperson said the missile had been intercepted before it penetrated Israeli territory; An Israeli citizen who served as a Chabad emissary to the United Arab Emirates was kidnapped and murdered, and three Uzbek citizens were arrested. The Israeli Mossad noted that it was a terrorist attack. The Iranian embassy in the UAE denied Iranian involvement in the murder. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 13—20, 2024)

This week, senior Iranian officials resumed their threats to retaliate for the Israeli attack on Iran on October 26, 2024. They stressed that Iran is committed to taking revenge on Israel and would do so at the time and in the manner it saw fit; High-level reciprocal visits between Iran and Syria: Ali Larijani, advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, visited Syria and Lebanon and met with senior government officials in Damascus and Beirut. The Iranian defense minister also visited Syria and met with senior government officials, headed by President Assad. The Syrian foreign minister also visited Tehran and met with his Iranian counterpart; It was reported that Iran had informed Hezbollah of its commitment to rebuild southern Lebanon, the Dahiyeh in Beirut, and the destruction caused in the Beqaa Valley after the war. The IRGC deputy commander and the Iranian foreign minister emphasized Iran's continued commitment to supporting Hezbollah and the “resistance front” in the region; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 17 statements claiming responsibility for drone attacks against targets in Israel. The Saraya Awliya al-Dam militia claimed responsibility for four more attacks; The IDF Spokesperson announced the interception of at least five drones, some of them in Syrian territory. Israel reportedly conveyed a message to the Iraqi government that if militia attacks did not stop, it would attack Iraq. “Elements” in the militias threatened to respond by expanding attacks against Israel if it acted against them, and the Iraqi government claimed that it was working to prevent the use of Iraqi territory to carry out attacks; The pro-Iranian militias continued their attacks against American bases in Syria. US forces in Syria were reportedly reinforced in preparation for the entry of the Trump administration; The Houthis claimed responsibility for two drone attacks against Israel. The IDF Spokesperson said drones were intercepted, and there were no casualties; The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a ship in the Red Sea and continued their threats to act against American aircraft carriers and warships in the Red Sea. A senior Pentagon official acknowledged that Houthi military capabilities “are getting scary.”
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Captured Documents Show Iranian Support for Hamas in the Gaza Strip

Iran has been Hamas' primary strategic supporter since 2014, providing military equipment and training as well as financial aid amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars for the movement's leadership and its military wing. Senior Hamas figures have also publicly thanked Tehran for providing weapons enabling attacks deep inside Israeli territory; Hamas documents captured by IDF forces during the Gaza Strip War offer a glimpse into the extent of Iranian penetration of Hamas as part of constructing the "resistance axis" against Israel. In addition to supporting Hamas' military activities, Iran supports other Gazan terrorist organizations and funds civilian, educational and cultural initiatives; The documents also provide new information on Iran's involvement in Hamas' preparations for the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre, including coordination with Hezbollah and Hamas deployment in the Lebanese arena; The documents reveal a strategic Iranian process to gain a foothold and exert influence over Hamas in particular and the Gaza Strip in general. Iran carried out the process by means of extensive funding, partially directed towards civilian programs, strengthening Shi'a within the Sunni society in Gaza (and influencing Hamas' decision-making by controlling financial sources and the significant procuring of weapons.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 6—13, 2024)

Senior Iranian officials stressed Israel’s alleged ongoing failure in the ongoing campaign against Hezbollah and Hamas. The Supreme Leader of Iran declared that jihad in Lebanon, Gaza, and “Palestine” would lead to victory and that Israel is being defeated in the regional campaign; The Iranian vice president participated in the Arab-Islamic summit in Saudi Arabia. He stressed the need to establish an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and criticized the failure of international institutions to stop Israel’s actions in the two battle zones; Senior Iranian officials participated in a conference commemorating Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran; Iraq’s national security advisor met in Tehran with senior Iranian government officials, including the IRGC commander and the Qods Force commander. The visit took place amid reports concerning Tehran’s intention to respond to the Israeli attack on Iran by launching a military attack on Israel from Iraqi territory; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 25 claims of responsibility for attacks against targets in Israel. The Saraya Awliya al-Dam militia claimed responsibility for three more attacks. The IDF Spokesperson announced the interception of more than ten drones. Another drone fell in the Mitzpe Ramon area, with no casualties. Kata’ib Hezbollah claimed they had not been asked to assist in the Iranian response against Israel; The pro-Iranian militias continued their attacks against American bases in Syria. US forces responded with airstrikes against militia targets in eastern Syria; The Houthis claimed responsibility for two ballistic missile attacks against Israel. The IDF Spokesperson said the missiles were intercepted before penetrating Israeli territory; The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks against an aircraft carrier and two American destroyers. The US Department of Defense confirmed the attempted attack. There were no casualties, and no damage was caused. The Americans attacked Houthi military targets in the Sana’a area.
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