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How Hamas perceived Israel’s rounds of deterrence, according to a document found in the Gaza Strip

A document prepared by the center for military and strategic studies of Hamas' military wing, dated September 9, 2023, which was brought back from the Gaza Strip by the IDF during the war, analyzed Israeli policy regarding the rounds of fighting in the Gaza Strip since Hamas seized control in 2006; According to the document, for many years Israel relied on a strategy of preemptive strike, but the strengthening of the "resistance" movements led by Hamas and Hezbollah, which could obstruct Israeli capabilities, led Israel to shift to short rounds of fighting of limited intensity; In the assessment of the document's authors, since Israel failed to achieve its objectives in Operation Cast Lead, foremost of which was overthrowing Hamas rule, it moved to presenting vague objectives alongside a focus on managing the conflict and preserving deterrence, with the objective of weakening Hamas without defeating it; Operation Guardian of the Walls in May 2021 is defined as a formative event in which Hamas deviated from the pattern of the previous rounds by linking the Gaza Strip to events in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria and by rousing Israeli Arabs to "resistance."; In the authors' assessment, Israel did not abandon the idea of a preemptive strike, particularly given the failure of Operation Guardian of the Walls, but was not in a position to build a new equation of deterrence. Therefore, it focused on conflict management, risk management and neutralizing threats. Accordingly, the recommendation to the Hamas leadership was to prepare for a new opening strike which would trigger another round of fighting, but also to initiate an unexpected confrontation that would break the recurring pattern and make Israel's leadership uncertain; In ITIC assessment, the study is part of the effort by Hamas' intelligence apparatuses to provide the movement's top decision-makers with a full strategic understanding of Israel's perception and conduct, at a time when they were in the final stages of planning the decisive attack against Israel. The picture emerging from the study, according to which Israel is not interested in overthrowing Hamas rule and is focused on limited rounds with known outcomes, together with the recommendation by the document's authors to act in an unexpected manner, confirmed al-Sinwar and Deif's confidence that the attack and massacre would be successful, and which were carried out on October 7, 2023, less than a month after the document was written.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (December 17-24, 2025)

The Iranian foreign minister stressed Iran’s opposition to a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem; Senior Iranian officials continued to express opposition to Hezbollah’s disarmament; Iran’s ambassador to the UN said at a Security Council meeting on the situation in Syria that the Syrian residents’ “resistance” to Israel’s “aggression” exposes the inevitable consequences of an “ongoing occupation.”; Iran and Iraq have reached an agreement on the opening of a new border crossing between the two countries.; Several pro-Iranian militias in Iraq expressed willingness to relinquish their weapons, but the major militias clarified that the issue is not open for negotiation. It is assessed that the change in the militias’ position stems from a desire to integrate into a new government and in light of warnings of possible Israeli attacks; The Islamic Resistance Front in Syria announced the death of its leader, without specifying the circumstances. 
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (December 15-22, 2025)

Overview[1] The IDF continued attacking Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon to enforce the ceasefire agreement, which prohibited the organization’s presence south of the Litani. The IDF reported that in the year since the ceasefire, more than 370 terrorist operatives, most of them from Hezbollah, had been eliminated and there had been approximately 1,200 targeted ground
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (December 10-17, 2025)

Tensions between Iran and Lebanon continue:  The Iranian foreign minister expressed surprise at his Lebanese counterpart’s decision not to accept an invitation to visit Tehran and announced his intention to visit Beirut. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed hope that a new ambassador would be stationed in Lebanon soon, despite the report that the Lebanese foreign minister was preventing his appointment; The Iranian ambassador to Beirut met with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to discuss developments in Lebanon and the region. At the same time, the Supreme Leader’s senior advisor for international affairs met with Hezbollah’s representative in Tehran; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that the events in Syria, including the killing of two American soldiers and an American interpreter, should not come as a surprise, given the growing instability caused by Israeli strikes and the “occupation” of territories by foreign actors; Iran’s ambassador to Iraq met with senior officials from the Kurdish region in northern Iraq. The visit reflects a growing Iranian effort following the parliamentary elections in Iraq to influence the process of forming a new government in the country; The Houthis condemned Israel’s “violations” in the Gaza Strip, particularly the targeted killing of senior Hamas military wing commander Raed Saad; According to an internal Houthi report, forty percent of their naval and rocket capabilities damaged by American and British strikes have been restored; The Iraqi foreign minister protested the US opposition to the inclusion of Shiite militias in the next government amid reports of increasing pressure from the US administration and threats of sanctions.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (December 8-15, 2025)

The IDF continued attacking Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon to enforce the ceasefire agreement, which prohibited the organization's presence south of the Litani. The IDF reported that in the year since the ceasefire, more than 370 terrorist operatives, most of them from Hezbollah, had been eliminated and there had been approximately 1,200 targeted ground operations to destroy terrorist infrastructure and damage the organization's military capabilities; The IDF continued activity to enforce the ceasefire agreement and prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its military-terrorist capabilities, attacking a Radwan Force training compound and military facilities. The IDF renewed the targeted killings of Hezbollah terrorist operatives, including a senior operative who handled agents within Lebanon's security services; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem reiterated the organization's refusal to disarm and called on the Lebanese state authorities to "recalculate their course" and not make concessions to Israel; The Lebanese leadership expressed hope that the appointment of former ambassador Simon Karam as head of the Lebanese delegation to ceasefire oversite talks with Israel would prevent escalation. Parliament Speaker Berri said there could be no progress in negotiations unless Israel was willing to withdraw from positions in south Lebanon; The IDF canceled an attack on a building used by Hezbollah in a village in south Lebanon after Lebanese Army forces conducted searches despite residents' opposition; The Lebanese Army has reportedly completed 90% of the demilitarization of the area south of the Litani River and is expected to complete the mission by the end of the year. However, according to reports, the Lebanese leadership was warned that if it did not disarm Hezbollah north of the Litani as well, Israel would be given a free hand to attack Hezbollah, including in Beirut; Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji said Hezbollah's weapons had not protected Lebanon or assisted the Gaza Strip and accused Iran of causing the greatest amount of regional destabilization. The Iranian foreign minister is expected to visit Lebanon and meet with senior Hezbollah figures in preparation for reshaping the organization's leadership; Given the growing pressure to shut down Hezbollah's al-Qard al-Hassan Association, the organization was reportedly considering changing its financial structure and its name.
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Iranian Activity in East Africa: A Growing Threat to Israeli and Western Interests

For years Iran has been working to advance diplomatic, economic and military objectives in East Africa as part of a strategy to position itself as a regional power, use the region to expand its geo-strategic influence and turn East Africa into a logistical backyard serving its efforts to build its network of terrorist proxy organizations; In recent years Iran renewed its relations with Djibouti and Sudan and tightened its ties with Ethiopia. That enabled Iran to expand its regional presence with the export of advanced weapons to conflict zones in East Africa, especially the civil war in Sudan; The ongoing relations between Iran and al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-affiliated Somalian terrorist organization, have made them middlemen in Iran's chain of proxies: The Houthis transfer Iranian weapons to al-Shabaab in the Horn of Africa, and al-Shabaab allows Tehran to use the ports under its control to smuggle weapons to the Houthis; In ITIC assessment, Iran's expanding presence in East Africa is a growing threat to Israeli interests because of Iran's ability to use the smuggling routes for weapons from Sudan to the Gaza Strip. Iran may also use the weapons it sends to conflict zones in East Africa and its official missions there to promote terrorist plots against Israeli targets in Africa. In addition, the threat to vital American and Western interests is increased by giving Iran the ability to attack shipping lanes in the Red Sea and through its dangerous proximity to the main American base in Djibouti.
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