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Iran

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (March 18-25, 2026)

The Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared Iran’s ambassador in Beirut persona non grata and demanded that he leave Lebanon, while clarifying that this does not constitute a severance of relations between the two countries. Hezbollah condemned the decision, calling it a “sin” contrary to Lebanon’s interests; It was reported that approximately one hundred IRGC officers arrived in Lebanon following the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, with the aim of restoring Hezbollah’s capabilities. They reportedly assumed direct command of the organization’s military wing in order to prepare it for the current campaign against Israel; Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani, who had not been seen since the beginning of the campaign in Iran, stressed in his first statement the importance of the “Resistance Front” in the campaign against the United States and Israel and warned of additional surprises from Iran’s regional proxies; Senior Houthi officials continued to express support for Iran and emphasized their readiness to join the campaign, though without committing to timing; Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq continued attacks using missiles, rockets, and drones against US bases and facilities in Iraq, Jordan, and Gulf states, concurrently with continued attacks attributed to the United States against bases of the Popular Mobilization Forces and the targeting of militia leaders.
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (March 17-24, 2026)

The spokesperson for the Hamas military wing praised the Iranian missile attacks on Israel, while the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) tried to downplay the significance of reports about an Israeli attempt to target its senior figures in Tehran; Despite the deadlock in implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, the mediators continue to try to persuade Hamas to disarm. The movement still refuses complete disarmament and is waiting for the end of the war in Iran; IDF forces continued operating within the Yellow Line in the Gaza Strip to locate terrorists and destroy weapons and terrorist infrastructure and assets, and eliminated Hamas and PIJ terrorist commanders; The Rafah Crossing was reopened for the passage of Gazans. Despite the entry of humanitarian aid, Hamas continued to promote its "hunger" propaganda; Hamas continued to exploit the delay in implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement to tighten civilian and "security" governance in areas under its control; According to reports, because of "regional developments" Hamas will postpone the election for head of its political bureau to the end of the year; The vehicular ramming incident in which an 18-year-old Israeli was killed near Homesh is being investigated as a terrorist attack. Four residents of Umm al-Fahm were detained on suspicion of planning to carry out shooting attacks; This past week attacks by Jewish settlers on Palestinians in Judea and Samaria escalated.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (March 16-23, 2026)

IDF forces in Lebanon continued from the air and eliminated terrorist commanders and operatives, including the commander of the Radwan special forces, and operatives linked to Iran and to Palestinian terrorist organizations operating in Lebanon. IDF ground forces in south Lebanon continued locating and destroying weapons and terrorist infrastructure and assets attacking Hezbollah targets; Hezbollah issued more than 280 claims of responsibility for attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon using rockets, missiles and UAVs. The IDF reported that Hezbollah launched a ballistic missile which fell in the northern Gaza Strip, but no claim of responsibility was made. Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem said he was confident the organization would stop the "aggression," force Israel to withdraw and release the Lebanese prisoners, and return the displaced persons to their homes. Hezbollah official admitted they had exercised restraint in the face of Israeli strikes for 15 months in order to rebuild Hezbollah's military capabilities; Hezbollah sharpened its rhetoric toward the Lebanese government following the ban on the organization's military activity, with implicit threats to take action against it after the war; Hezbollah terrorist cells were exposed in the UAE and Kuwait; the organization denied involvement; Lebanese president Joseph Aoun continued efforts to advance his initiative for direct talks with Israel, however, Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, opposed appointing a Shi'ite representative to the delegation before a ceasefire and demanded the talks be conducted under the supervision mechanism for implementing the ceasefire agreement; Lebanese prime minister Nawaf Salam accused Hezbollah of dragging the country back into war to assist Iran and avenge the killing of Khamenei. He said he did not want a confrontation with Hezbollah, but was not prepared to submit to extortion; The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that more than 1,000 people had been killed since the beginning of the fighting.
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Hamas Exploits the War in Iran to Tighten Its Civilian and Security Control of the Gaza Strip

The war in Iran and disputes regarding the activity of the new committee for managing the Gaza Strip are delaying the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, according to which Hamas is supposed to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip and disarm; Hamas is exploiting the situation to tighten its security control using violence and force against those who are critical, labeled "collaborators" or members of militias receiving Israeli support. Hamas' growing confidence is reflected in the public presence of armed operatives from the military wing and the security forces; Hamas is also continuing its efforts to rebuild its military capabilities by smuggling arms from Egypt and independently developing weapons which pose a threat to IDF forces in the Gaza Strip and to the State of Israel; Hamas is also strengthening civilian governance in the areas under its control through a wide deployment of police forces, some of whom are openly armed, and the ongoing activity of government ministries. That is manifested by tight supervision over merchants in the markets and the distribution of financial aid to Gazan civilians; In ITIC assessment, as long as Israel and the United States focus their attention on the wars in Iran and Lebanon against Hezbollah, Hamas will continue to entrench its dominance in the Gaza Strip regardless of Israeli attacks, pressure to relinquish control and disarm, and criticism from Gazans over the high cost of living and the collapse of services. Hamas will continue to tightensecurity and military governance, including accelerating its rearming and the recruitm ent and training of operatives. It will continue to strengthen civilian governance, combining violence and intimidation with the battle for hearts and minds to ensure it remains a power in Gaza even if the second phase of the ceasefire agreement is implemented and Hamas (ostensibly) transfers control to the Palestinian technocratic committee.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (March 11-18, 2026)

As part of the military campaign in Lebanon, the IDF eliminated senior operatives acting on behalf of the IRGC. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry protested to Iran over the joint attacks with Hezbollah against Israel and denied that the four Qods Force operatives killed in an Israeli strike were diplomats; The Houthis have continued to emphasize that they are monitoring developments in the campaign involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, but have not yet intervened in the fighting; Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq continued attacks using missiles and drones against American bases and facilities in Iraq, Jordan, and the Gulf states. The military spokesman for Kata’ib Hezbollah was eliminated; In his first message, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, emphasized Iran’s support for the “Resistance Front” and declared it an integral part of the values of the Islamic Revolution; “World Jerusalem Day” rallies were held across Iran despite the military campaign. Senior Iranian officials used the events to stress Iran’s commitment to the Palestinian cause and the destruction of the State of Israel.
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The Iran-Israel War: Possible Iranian-Orchestrated Attacks on Israeli and Jewish Targets

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a combined preemptive strike in Iran which included attacks on dozens of military, security and regime targets across the country, during which Iranian's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of other senior officials were eliminated. Iran responded with missile and UAV attacks on Israel, American facilities in the Middle East and neighboring countries; Along with a military response, concern increased that the regime in Tehran would also carry out revenge attacks on Israeli, Jewish and American targets, using the terrorist infrastructure it has constructed in many countries around the world, which it uses as a tool for attacks and attempted attacks to advance the interests of the Islamic Republic. Shi'ite religious scholars also issued fatwas and calls for jihad; Since the beginning of the war, Iranian terrorist plots against Israeli and Jewish targets in the United Kingdom and Azerbaijan have been exposed and prevented from coming to fruition. In addition, an unknown organization suspected of being inspired by Iran claimed responsibility for four attacks on Jewish institutions in Europe; Israeli sources called on Israeli citizens around the world to take increased precautionary measures, particularly near Jewish and Israeli sites, and Israeli missions reduced they activity and presence; In ITIC assessment, given the damage to the heads of the regime in Iran in general and the elimination of Iran’s leader in particular, and given the risk to the regime’s stability, Iran will seek to exact a high price from Israel and the United States, in addition to the arena of direct hostilities, and to increase pressure to halt the attacks as soon as possible. It is entirely possible that the combination of a desire for revenge and a strategic need for leverage could promote various terrorist networks directed and assisted by Iran to attack Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide, as long as the war continues and after it ends.
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