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Iran

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 12 – 19, 2025)

The Lebanese authorities’ decision to suspend Iranian flights to Beirut for fear that they are carrying funds for Hezbollah was the focus of diplomatic contacts between the two countries. Israel’s Foreign Minister revealed that Iran is also trying to smuggle money for Hezbollah through Turkey and in cooperation with it; Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and Foreign Minister Araghchi met in Tehran with the leadership of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The two condemned Trump’s plan to evacuate the residents of the Gaza Strip; The Iranian foreign minister’s special representative for the Middle East claimed that Iran and the new regime in Syria were exchanging messages. Sources in Syria denied this; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman denied reports of Iranian military assistance to the Houthis after it was reported that the “legitimate” Yemeni army had thwarted an attempt to smuggle Iranian-made weapons, including cruise missiles and drones.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon (February 10 – 17, 2025)

Preparations are being made in Lebanon ahead of the February 18, 2025 deadline for the completion of the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon. Hezbollah and senior Lebanese government officials expressed opposition to Israel’s intention to retain military forces at five strategic points on the Lebanese side of the border and demanded a full withdrawal; IDF forces continued operations against Hezbollah ceasefire violations, targeting Hezbollah weapons depots and operatives in south Lebanon and inside the country. A senior member of Hamas’s military wing responsible for orchestrating attacks in Judea and Samaria was eliminated; Hezbollah supporters rioted against Lebanese security forces near Beirut airport after the government prevented the arrival of an Iranian plane, having been informed that it was carrying funds for Hezbollah and could be targeted by Israel; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah secretary general, claimed Nasrallah's funeral would be a show of strength; Nawaf Salam, Lebanon’s new prime minister, said only Lebanese security forces should bear arms. 
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Hamas Promotes a “Victory” Narrative for Gaza Strip War

The announcement of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, even before it went into effect on January 19, 2025, provided Hamas with an opportunity to start promoting a "victory" narrative over Israel in the aza Strip War, which they refer to as Operation al-Aqsa Flood, which began with the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023; Official statements from Hamas and its senior figures, amplified by the movement's official and affiliated media outlets, as well as during public "release ceremonies" for Israeli hostages, aimed to promote the narrative that Israel had failed to achieve its objectives against the "resistance" and the "steadfastness" of the Gazans; Hamas' media made extensive use of statements from Israeli political, military and media figures, which in their perspective reinforced the message of Israel's "failure" to achieve the war's objectives; In ITIC assessment, Hamas will continue highlighting Israel's failure to achieve its objectives and promoting the "victory" narrative as long as the ceasefire agreement is maintained, in order to soften public criticism in Gaza of the extensive devastation in the Strip. If the agreement transitions to the second phase, which is expected to include further Israeli withdrawals from Gaza and the release of more prisoners who committed particularly serious crimes, Hamas will intensify its "victory" propaganda to increase its power in Gaza and maintain its position in the Palestinian arena, even if it is forced to relinquish actual control over the Gaza Strip.
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Spotlight on Syria (After the Fall of the Assad Regime) February 5 – 12 , 2025

For several days the security forces of the new Syrian regime exchanged fire with Hezbollah-affiliated arms and drug smugglers near the border with Lebanon; Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said Trump's plan to evacuate residents of the Gaza Strip was a "serious crime" but said he hoped Trump would succeed in promoting peace in the Middle East; The Syrian army deployed its first divisions across the country. A new commander was appointed to the Syrian Air Force; The IDF attacked a Hamas weapons depot in southern Syria. Other Israeli raids were reported in villages in the Golan Heights outside the buffer zone.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 5 – 12, 2025)

Senior Iranian officials strongly condemned US President Trump’s proposal to transfer the residents of the Gaza Strip to other countries and called for decisive action by the international community, especially the countries of the region and the Islamic countries, against the plan.; A delegation of senior Hamas figures visited Tehran and met with senior officials of the Iranian regime, headed by Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Pezeshkian. The senior Iranian officials congratulated the Hamas delegation on the “victory” of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and stressed Iran’s support for the Palestinians and the “resistance"; Iran’s ambassador to Beirut stated that Iran intends to participate in the reconstruction of Lebanon in coordination with the new government in Beirut; According to an unconfirmed report, senior Iranian officials and senior officials of the former Syrian regime held a secret meeting in Iraq to formulate a plan to overthrow the new regime in Syria and assassinate President al-Shara; The Houthi leader threatened that if the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip collapsed, the Houthi forces would be ready to resume their attacks against Israel.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (February 4 – 11 , 2025)

Hamas released three Israeli hostages in exchange for 183 Palestinian prisoners and IDF forces withdrew from the Netzarim Corridor. Hamas postponed the next scheduled hostage release on February 15, 2025, claiming Israel was not implementing the humanitarian clauses of the agreement and calling on mediators to pressure Israel; Hamas continued to demonstrate security and civilian governance, recruiting thousands of new operatives to its military wing and resuming tax collection; Fatah demanded that Hamas relinquish control of Gaza "the day after" in favor of a committee subordinate to the PA and the PLO. Hamas opposed the move, citing a lack of national consensus; A senior Hamas delegation visited Iran and met with regime officials to express gratitude for their support during the war; Israeli security forces continued the extensive counterterrorism operation in northern Samaria and expanded it to the Nur Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm; PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas cancelled legal provisions related to payments to the families of prisoners, shaheeds and the wounded. Hamas condemned the decision.
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