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Rising Tensions between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Government

Since the ceasefire agreement went into effect at the end of November 2024, Hezbollah has criticized Lebanese government institutions, claiming they are not doing enough to stop Israeli "aggression" and "violations" of the agreement; In recent weeks, Hezbollah has become increasingly angry at the intention of the government and the army to continue disarmament north of the Litani River and because a civilian representative was appointed to the talks with Israel. Statements by President Aoun and other Lebanese officials regarding the end of the role of the "resistance" have also angered Hezbollah; Hezbollah, led by secretary general Na'im Qassem, has escalated his rhetoric against the president and the government and accused state institutions of failing to safeguard Lebanon's sovereignty and the Shi'ite community, while stating that the "resistance" will not surrender and is prepared for confrontation. Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets joined the campaign against the government and questioned the legitimacy of President Aoun, accusing him of acting in the interests of the United States and Israel; Attempts were made to reduce tensions, including meetings between President Aoun and his aides and members of the Hezbollah faction in the Lebanese Parliament; In ITIC assessment, Lebanon is in transition from managed political tension to an open and prolonged struggle. As long as no significant regional change occurs, especially regarding Iran, in all probably friction and tension will continue. The government will proceed cautiously in extending its authority north of the Litani River, and Hezbollah will block measures perceived as attacking the core of its power, without letting the situation deteriorate into a broad internal Lebanese crisis. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 4-11, 2026)

The Iranian foreign minister accused Israel, in a speech at the Al Jazeera Forum in Qatar, of committing “war crimes” in the Gaza Strip. He called for practical action by the international community against Israel and for coordination among Islamic countries, Arab states, and Global South countries in support of the Palestinians; At least six senior Iranian diplomats reportedly used their passports to transfer hundreds of millions of dollars to Hezbollah. One of the diplomats also accompanied the Iranian foreign minister during his recent visit to Beirut in January 2026; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused Israel of using “toxic and chemical substances” in southern Lebanon; In a letter of condolence following the death of the father of former Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader emphasized the importance of the “resistance” in Lebanon and Iran’s continued support for it; The Iranian foreign minister stated that Iran supports Hezbollah but does not need it to defend itself against the United States and Israel; The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council met, during a visit to Oman, with the spokesman of the Houthis in Yemen; It was reported that the Houthis are in “strategic isolation” as a result of contacts between the United States and Iran and the weakening of Hezbollah, which had supported them over the years; IDF forces exposed a weapons depot belonging to al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya in southern Syria.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (February 2-9, 2026)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon and the Beqa'a Valley to enforce the November 2024 ceasefire agreement and to prevent Hezbollah's renewed military buildup. The IDF detained a senior operative from Hamas-affiliated al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya, the Muslim Brotherhood branch in Lebanon; Hezbollah's secretary general called the confrontation with Israel and the United States part of a regional campaign led by Iran, and argued that political pressure was being exerted to achieve gains which Israel had not achieved militarily; Lebanese Prime Minister visited the border villages in south Lebanon and received a sympathetic welcome; Israel reportedly told Lebanon that it would continue its attacks until Hezbollah had been completely disarmed, and would withdraw IDF forces from positions in south Lebanon only in exchange for a declaration ending the state of hostility between the two countries and the signing of a new security agreement. It was also reported that a secret meeting was held in the United States between senior officers from the Lebanese army and the IDF; Lebanese army Commander visited the United States to present the army's needs and its difficulties in completing missions, especially the state's monopoly on weapons; The Hezbollah leadership accepted Wafiq Safa's resignation as the head of the Liaison and Coordination Unit, an unprecedented step in the organization's security apparatus. He reportedly resigned following serious disputes at the upper echelons of the organization, alongside a reduction of powers and Safa's deviation from Lebanon's line; Tension continues between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. Senior figures in Lebanon opposed a Hezbollah-Lebanon involvement if a confrontation with Iran developed.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (January 27- February 4, 2026)

Iran’s foreign minister said Iran supports ending the Israeli occupation in Syria. A militia operating in southern Syria warned against the Israeli presence there. The Houthis condemned the Israeli “aggression” in the Gaza Strip, warning it could lead to a regional confrontation.
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Threats by Axis of Resistance Organizations amid Tensions between the United States and Iran

Amid the wave of protests in Iran and the exchange of threats between Iran, the United States, and Israel, members of the Axis of Resistance issued statements and threats of their own. Reports also indicate that some are preparing for a possible confrontation. The scope and intensity of their responses will depend, among other factors, on the nature of any US attack and the targets struck. However, the considerations guiding the Axis members are not uniform.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (January 26 – February 2, 2026)

Hezbollah is ambiguous regarding its possible involvement in a regional confrontation with Iran, but hinted it was making preparations should one break out. There are reports of internal power struggles and tensions in Hezbollah’s upper echelons as the leadership reorganizes. Hostile Hezbollah activity in Syria was uncovered.
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