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Iran

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (December 4-11, 2024)

Senior Iranian officials and the Iranian media expressed acceptance of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and concern about future developments in the country and Israel’s exploitation of the situation. The Iranian Supreme Leader noted that it was a “joint American-Zionist plan.” However, they stressed that the fall of the Syrian regime would not have a significant negative impact on the “resistance front,” including Hezbollah. The pro-Iranian militias claimed that the plot was intended to undermine the support of the “axis of resistance” for the Gaza Strip; Reports indicate that Iran has already established channels of communication with elements among the power groups that took over Syria, to protect Iranian missions in Syria and the Shiite holy sites and prevent a deterioration between the two countries.; Iran and the militias strongly condemned Israel’s attacks in Syria and the entry of IDF forces into the buffer zone in the Golan Heights following the fall of the Assad regime; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with senior figures in Hamas’ political bureau and discussed negotiations for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip; The Houthis claimed responsibility for a joint attack with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq using drones against a target in Israel. The IDF Spokesperson said that a missile launched from Yemen was intercepted before it penetrated Israeli territory. A drone launched by the Houthis hit a building in Yavneh. There were no casualties; The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on two American destroyers and three supply ships in the Gulf of Aden. The US Central Command confirmed that the destroyers thwarted an attack using drones and a cruise missile.
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) – December 2-9 , 2024

On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposed to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launched an operation against the Syrian army forces and their allies. They took control of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs and on December 8, 2024, they completed the takeover of Damascus. President al-Assad fled the country and received political asylum in Russia. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani), who led the military operation, declared victory for the entire Syrian people and accused the Assad regime of turning Syria into a farm for Iranian ambitions; IDF forces took control of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and took control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. Dozens of Israeli army airstrikes were reported against depots of advanced weapons and other capabilities that could fall into the hands of the rebels; Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem announced that the organization would help the Assad regime suppress the “aggression,” but as the rebels advanced, Hezbollah was forced to withdraw its forces from Syria; The Iranian foreign minister claimed that Iran had informed al-Assad about the rebels’ plans to launch a military operation but was surprised by the Syrian army’s inability to respond effectively. Reports indicated that Tehran has established direct channels of communication with some of the opposition groups and expressed its readiness for dialogue with the new leadership; The United States has attacked dozens of ISIS targets in central Syria to prevent the organization from taking advantage of the events in the country to recover.
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The Rebel Attack in Syria: What does it mean for Israel?

On November 27, 2024, armed organizations opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamic-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression Operation (Rad' al-Udwan) against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwestern Syria. On November 30, 2024, Turkish-sponsored rebel organizations Operation Dawn of Liberation initiated Operation “Dawn of Liberation” (Fajr al-Hurriya) in the Aleppo region, attacking Syrian regime forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-Arab militia supported by the United States. The rebels took control of Aleppo and Hama, as well as military bases, airfields and security facilities operating under the sponsorship of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah; Iran and "resistance axis" organizations expressed support for the Syrian regime, making diplomatic efforts to calm the situation and deploying forces to Syria. Iran also accused the offensive of being an "Israeli-American conspiracy" whose objective was to weaken the "resistance axis." According to the rebels, they wanted to prevent Syrian regime forces from attacking the opposition enclave in northwestern Syria. They also noted that the "resistance axis" focus on fighting Israel and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from Syria to Lebanon were key factors in their considerations for initiating the offensive at this time; In ITIC assessment, although the rebels currently focus on fighting Assad's regime and its allies, and Islamic-jihadist takeover of advanced weaponry, including fighter jets, could pose a long-term threat to Israel. In addition, the increasing instability in Syria could trigger a new wave of displaced persons who might also move toward Israel's border. However, the rebels' offensive also poses a threat to Iran and the "resistance axis," which have used Syria as a route for transferring weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and a location from which to attack Israel. The focus of Iran and the militias on fighting the rebels, who have also taken control of strategically important "resistance axis" sites, may hinder their ability to assist Hezbollah in the reconstruction process after the fighting against Israel.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 27 – December 4, 2024)

Iran and the militias of the “axis of resistance” presented the ceasefire in Lebanon as a “great victory” for Hezbollah and the “resistance front” and as a defeat for Israel. According to them, Israel was forced to agree to the ceasefire after it failed to defeat Hezbollah and realize its goals in the war. The militias made it clear that they would continue to operate even though the ceasefire violated the principle of “unity of the arenas"; Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, who was wounded in the Hezbollah pager attack in September 2024, has returned to Beirut. The Iranian foreign minister and the IRGC commander stressed their country’s continued support for Hezbollah; The IRGC deputy commander warned that the residents of Israel should know that the events of the past year would be like a “walk in the park” for them compared to what awaits them in the future; An extensive Iranian cyber operation was uncovered that targeted hundreds of Israeli public figures and senior officials in preparation for an assassination operation; The Houthis claimed responsibility for three joint attacks with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq using drones against three targets in Israel, for the first time since July 2024. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed that three drones that did not penetrate Israeli territory had been intercepted; The militias in Iraq continued to refrain from issuing claims of responsibility for attacks against Israel. A senior member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied that understandings had been reached with the Iraqi government on the cessation of attacks against Israel; The rebel offensive in Syria: A senior Iranian officer was killed in the rebel attack in Syria. Senior Iranian officials claimed that this is an “American-Zionist plot.” Tehran focused on political-diplomatic activity, emphasizing its support for the Syrian regime and its readiness to provide any necessary assistance. It has been reported that the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have begun moving forces into Syria. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 20 – 27, 2024)

Iran and the Shiite militias welcomed the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, even though it violates the idea of “unity of the arenas,” and claimed that it was achieved thanks to Hezbollah’s steadfastness; They also praised the decision of the International Criminal Court in The Hague to issue arrest warrants against Israel’s prime minister and former defense minister. However, the Iranian Supreme Leader said an arrest warrant was not enough and that the senior Israeli officials should be executed; Senior Iranian officials reiterated the achievements of the “resistance front” in the campaign against Israel, claiming that Israel is not achieving its goals and is surviving only thanks to American support; Russia reportedly prevented an Iranian plane carrying weapons to Hezbollah from landing at the Hmeymim airbase in Syria, which is under its control; Amid Israeli threats to act against the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued only four statements claiming responsibility for drone attacks against targets in southern Israel. The IDF Spokesperson reported the interception of a drone in the Red Sea and the downing of three additional drones in Israeli territory, with no casualties. It was reported that militia leaders had moved to Iran for fear of an Israeli attack; More than 100 pro-Iranian militia operatives were killed in an attack attributed to Israel in the city of Palmyra in the Syrian Desert; An American think tank issued a report estimating that the pro-Iranian militia that claimed to have attacked Israel from Saudi territory is a fictitious organization of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq; The US Department of Defense reported that the pro-Iranian militias had carried out more than 200 attacks against American targets in the Middle East since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip; The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack against Israel using a ballistic missile. The IDF Spokesperson said the missile had been intercepted before it penetrated Israeli territory; An Israeli citizen who served as a Chabad emissary to the United Arab Emirates was kidnapped and murdered, and three Uzbek citizens were arrested. The Israeli Mossad noted that it was a terrorist attack. The Iranian embassy in the UAE denied Iranian involvement in the murder. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 13—20, 2024)

This week, senior Iranian officials resumed their threats to retaliate for the Israeli attack on Iran on October 26, 2024. They stressed that Iran is committed to taking revenge on Israel and would do so at the time and in the manner it saw fit; High-level reciprocal visits between Iran and Syria: Ali Larijani, advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, visited Syria and Lebanon and met with senior government officials in Damascus and Beirut. The Iranian defense minister also visited Syria and met with senior government officials, headed by President Assad. The Syrian foreign minister also visited Tehran and met with his Iranian counterpart; It was reported that Iran had informed Hezbollah of its commitment to rebuild southern Lebanon, the Dahiyeh in Beirut, and the destruction caused in the Beqaa Valley after the war. The IRGC deputy commander and the Iranian foreign minister emphasized Iran's continued commitment to supporting Hezbollah and the “resistance front” in the region; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 17 statements claiming responsibility for drone attacks against targets in Israel. The Saraya Awliya al-Dam militia claimed responsibility for four more attacks; The IDF Spokesperson announced the interception of at least five drones, some of them in Syrian territory. Israel reportedly conveyed a message to the Iraqi government that if militia attacks did not stop, it would attack Iraq. “Elements” in the militias threatened to respond by expanding attacks against Israel if it acted against them, and the Iraqi government claimed that it was working to prevent the use of Iraqi territory to carry out attacks; The pro-Iranian militias continued their attacks against American bases in Syria. US forces in Syria were reportedly reinforced in preparation for the entry of the Trump administration; The Houthis claimed responsibility for two drone attacks against Israel. The IDF Spokesperson said drones were intercepted, and there were no casualties; The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a ship in the Red Sea and continued their threats to act against American aircraft carriers and warships in the Red Sea. A senior Pentagon official acknowledged that Houthi military capabilities “are getting scary.”
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Iran

Exporting the Islamic Revolution was one of the Iranian Revolution’s original, basic objectives. Iran seeks regional hegemony and more than that – dominance of the Muslim world. To that end, Iran has developed a network of underground organizations and terrorist groups within Islamic (especially Shiite) communities in the Middle East and around the world, including Africa, Latin America, Asia and beyond. In the Middle East, Iran is leading an anti-American and anti-Israeli Shiite axis struggling against the Middle Eastern Sunni countries led by Saudi Arabia. The Iranian axis (the “Axis of Resistance”) includes Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Bahrain. In these countries, Iran handles proxy organizations operating to promote Iran’s interests.

Israeli-Iranian relations had their ups and downs. During the reign of the Shah of Iran, the two countries were allied politically. After the revolution and the establishment of the Islamic Republic, Iran revoked its recognition of Israel and ended all official relations with it.

To implement its anti-Israeli policies, Iran has broadened its ties to the terrorist organizations operating against Israel. Iran instigates terrorist organizations, especially the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, to attack Israel, and finances and arms both organizations. In recent years, large shipments of weapons from Iran have been intercepted as they were en route to the Palestinian terrorist organizations.


To promote its regional and global interests and aspirations, Iran is developing military nuclear capabilities. It is also developing long-range missiles and warheads which can reach Israel, the rest of the Middle East, and Europe.