Incitement and Delegitimization

Hamas’ strategy to destroy Israel: from theory into practice, as seen in captured documents

The idea that the very existence of the State of Israel ("the Zionist entity") is illegal and immoral has been ingrained in Hamas' worldview since its founding. However, for Hamas, aware of its military and political limitations, the issue of "the destruction of Israel" remained a vision for the future, while the movement focused on the narrative that "not losing is a victory."; After the Saif al-Quds campaign (Operation Guardian of the Walls) in May 2021, Hamas' approach began to shift, as the movement came to believe that the destruction of Israel had become a goal that could actually be achieved. The change was reflected in a series of public statements by Hamas leaders, although they could have been perceived on the Israeli side (and probably were) as boasts; Hamas documents taken from Gaza during the Gaza Strip War confirm what Hamas officials had publicly stated and indicate that the plan to eliminate the State of Israel had been regarded in recent years, especially after Operation Guardian of the Walls, by the Hamas leadership, especially Yahya al-Sinwar (as well as by its allies, Iran and Hezbollah), as executable and highly feasible in the near future. Those were not just empty words, they were backed by the development of practical plans and ongoing coordination between the elements of the "resistance axis." They felt Israel had become vulnerable while Hamas and other 'resistance' forces had grown stronger. The strategic shift by Hamas was not understood at all by Israel; In ITIC assessment, the severe blow suffered by Hamas and most elements of the "resistance axis" will probably push back the play to destroy Israel, returning it to the level of a vision for the future. In the long run, if Hamas recovers and receives support from Iran, it is not improbable that the movement could once again regard destroying Israel as a practical plan.
Read more...

Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (February 25 – March 4, 2025)

The first stage of the ceasefire agreement ended without a Hamas-Israel agreement for continuing negotiations for the second stage and the release of the hostages. Hamas accused Israel of committing a "war crime" by halting the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, and reiterated that they were committed to implementing the agreement. According to reports, Hamas' military wing is preparing to resume fighting against Israel; In preparation for the March 4, 2025 emergency Arab summit in Egypt to discuss the plan for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, Hamas said it would be willing to relinquish control of the Strip as part of an arrangement which had national consensus, but would not agree to the presence of foreign forces in the Strip; This past week there were three terrorist attacks, two of them inside Israeli territory, in which one person was killed and at least 16 others were injured. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in northern Samaria. Hamas incited anti-Israel violence for the beginning of the Muslim month of Ramadan.
Read more...

Hamas Promotes a “Victory” Narrative for Gaza Strip War

The announcement of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, even before it went into effect on January 19, 2025, provided Hamas with an opportunity to start promoting a "victory" narrative over Israel in the aza Strip War, which they refer to as Operation al-Aqsa Flood, which began with the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023; Official statements from Hamas and its senior figures, amplified by the movement's official and affiliated media outlets, as well as during public "release ceremonies" for Israeli hostages, aimed to promote the narrative that Israel had failed to achieve its objectives against the "resistance" and the "steadfastness" of the Gazans; Hamas' media made extensive use of statements from Israeli political, military and media figures, which in their perspective reinforced the message of Israel's "failure" to achieve the war's objectives; In ITIC assessment, Hamas will continue highlighting Israel's failure to achieve its objectives and promoting the "victory" narrative as long as the ceasefire agreement is maintained, in order to soften public criticism in Gaza of the extensive devastation in the Strip. If the agreement transitions to the second phase, which is expected to include further Israeli withdrawals from Gaza and the release of more prisoners who committed particularly serious crimes, Hamas will intensify its "victory" propaganda to increase its power in Gaza and maintain its position in the Palestinian arena, even if it is forced to relinquish actual control over the Gaza Strip.
Read more...

Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (February 4 – 11 , 2025)

Hamas released three Israeli hostages in exchange for 183 Palestinian prisoners and IDF forces withdrew from the Netzarim Corridor. Hamas postponed the next scheduled hostage release on February 15, 2025, claiming Israel was not implementing the humanitarian clauses of the agreement and calling on mediators to pressure Israel; Hamas continued to demonstrate security and civilian governance, recruiting thousands of new operatives to its military wing and resuming tax collection; Fatah demanded that Hamas relinquish control of Gaza "the day after" in favor of a committee subordinate to the PA and the PLO. Hamas opposed the move, citing a lack of national consensus; A senior Hamas delegation visited Iran and met with regime officials to express gratitude for their support during the war; Israeli security forces continued the extensive counterterrorism operation in northern Samaria and expanded it to the Nur Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm; PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas cancelled legal provisions related to payments to the families of prisoners, shaheeds and the wounded. Hamas condemned the decision.
Read more...

Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (January 28 – February 4 , 2025)

The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continues: Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) released a female soldier and ten civilian hostages, five Israelis and five Thais, in exchange for 293 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom were serving life sentences; some were deported abroad. The Rafah Crossing was opened for the exit of patients and wounded; the return of displaced persons to northern Gaza continued; Hamas accused Israel of "humanitarian violations" of the ceasefire, claiming the movement was ready to begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement. Hamas confirmed the deaths of Muhammad Deif, head of the military wing, his deputy and other senior terrorist operatives. The Palestinian Authority (PA) worked to recruit international aid for the Gaza Strip; Two IDF soldiers were shot to death in the Jordan Valley, the terrorist was killed. Israeli security forces continued a large-scale counterterrorism operation in northern Samaria, eliminating more than 50 terrorist operatives; Nine countries announced the establishment of a group to assist the Palestinians in legal warfare against Israel. The Palestinian Authority and Hamas welcomed the initiative.
Read more...

Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (January 14 – 21 ,2025)

On January 19, 2025, a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip went into effect, the first phase of a deal to release Israeli hostages. Hamas released three Israeli hostages in exchange for ninety Palestinian women and minors imprisoned in Israel; Senior Hamas officials stated their commitment to the ceasefire agreement, calling it "a victory over Israel." Hamas quickly demonstrated its governance by deploying large security forces in the Gaza Strip, while the Palestinian Authority (PA) demanded it receive responsibility for the Strip; An Israeli was stabbed in Tel Aviv; the terrorist was killed. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria and launched a large-scale operation in Jenin. An IDF soldier was killed and three others were injured in two explosive device attacks during the operation; Jewish settlers rioted in Palestinian villages in the Qalqilya area; The Palestinian Authority security forces continued their activities against gunmen in the Jenin refugee camp after understandings between the sides collapsed. However, the PA's activities ended with the beginning of the Israeli security force operation. 
Read more...