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In-Depth Studies

The Israeli protests against the judicial legislation as reflected in Hamas documents

The demonstrations and protest which began in Israel in January 2023 against the judicial legislation promoted by the Israeli government received systematic, extensive attention from the Palestinian media, with commentary on the implications for Israeli society and its military strength; Senior Hamas figures did not publicly comment on the protests in Israel, but Hamas documents brought back by the IDF during the Gaza Strip War showed they were monitoring the reports daily and referred to them in conversations among themselves and with their partners in the "resistance axis," especially in light of preparations for implementing the practical plan for the vision of "the destruction of Israel";  Among the documents were reports from Hamas intelligence departments which gave extensive coverage to the developments surrounding the government's proposed "judicial reform" and the protest, and the possible implications for the IDF’s functioning in light of the reservists' protest; From the documents it appears that Hamas intelligence personnel warned Yahya al-Sinwar, the head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, that given its internal events, Israel would respond with force to any "resistance" initiative, and therefore they recommended waiting and allowing the crisis in Israel to deepen. Nevertheless, al-Sinwar continued the preparations and ordered the execution of the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack and massacre while Israel's internal crisis was still ongoing, reinforcing assessments regarding Israel's response as presented in the Hamas intelligence documents.
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Khaled Mashal, Hamas’ “external” leader, is a controversial figure, as documented in documents found by the IDF in the Gaza Strip

Khaled Mashal, who has headed the Hamas “external” leadership since April 2021, is one of the founders of the movement, was head of its political bureau for 21 years. Nevertheless, he is considered a controversial figure who symbolizes the tension between the “external” leadership and the “internal” leadership in the Gaza Strip; Hamas documents found by the IDF during the war in the Gaza Strip provided evidence of power struggles in the movement’s upper echelons. The documents described how the “internal” leadership, led by Yahya al-Sinwar, sought to weaken Mashal’s influence in the Hamas decision-making centers; The documents also showed Mashal was perceived as an obstacle to strategic relations with Iran, by both al-Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh, and by Mohammad Saeed Izadi, head of the "Palestine branch" of Iran’s Qods Force; The documents showed that the “internal” leadership and Iran worked to isolate Mashal during the reconciliation process with Syria as part of strengthening the “resistance axis"; Hamas is now led by a temporary committee of five senior figures, including Mashal. Elections for the senior positions in the movement’s leadership are expected to take place only after the end of the war in the Gaza Strip. However, in light of the eliminations of many members of the “internal” civilian and military leadership, the importance of the “external” leadership is expected to increase, particularly that of Mashal, who has lost his main rivals in the movement’s upper echelons. In addition, Iran’s regional weakening and the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria may also reduce opposition to Mashal’s power.
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Challenges Faced by Hezbolla after the November 27, 2024 ceasfire

 The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement of November 27, 2024, which ended the fighting that began on October 8, 2023, placed Hezbollah at a crossroads, the most significant since the organization's founding in 1982. Its situation was the result of the loss of its top leadership, primarily secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor Hashem Safi al-Din, as well as commanders and thousands of operatives. In addition, key military-terrorist capabilities and infrastructure were destroyed and the organization's status inside Lebanon was damaged.
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Operation Guardian of the Walls as a watershed moment in Hamas’ strategy for the “destruction of Israel,” as reflected in documents found by the IDF in the Gaza Strip

Israel considered Operation Guardian of the Walls (May 2021) a major success which severely damaged Hamas and strengthened Israeli deterrence. Statements by senior Israeli officials, including the prime minister, the defense minister and senior IDF officers, emphasized the blow to Hamas’ military capabilities, primarily the tunnel system (the so-called “tunnel system”) and claimed Hamas was unlikely to act against Israel for years; Hamas, however, held an opposing view and considered the operation, which it referred to as Operation Sword of Jerusalem, a significant achievement for the movement and a defeat for Israel. That was reflected in public statements by Hamas leaders in the days following the ceasefire, in which they declared a strategic victory and downplayed the extent of damage to their military capabilities. Leaders of the “resistance axis” also praised Hamas and its military wing; The sense of achievement also appeared in captured Hamas documents found during the Gaza Strip War. They included transcripts of conversations and written correspondence between Hamas leaders and senior figures in Iran and Hezbollah; Hamas’ perception of success in the operation bolstered the confidence of Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, who moved forward with military plans to implement the vision of “destroying Israel,” in coordination with other members of the “resistance axis,” even if Iran and Hezbollah were not actively involved; The documents reinforce the assessment, also evident from public statements, that Hamas regarded Operation Guardian of the Walls as a watershed moment in its future strategic plan for the conflict with Israel. Despite the proposal to promote a political move toward a temporary cessation of hostilities, the Hamas leadership under al-Sinwar focused on practical preparations for a major military operation, culminating in the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre, a step in realizing the movement’s long-term vision of “destroying Israel.”
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Hamas’ strategy to destroy Israel: from theory into practice, as seen in captured documents

The idea that the very existence of the State of Israel ("the Zionist entity") is illegal and immoral has been ingrained in Hamas' worldview since its founding. However, for Hamas, aware of its military and political limitations, the issue of "the destruction of Israel" remained a vision for the future, while the movement focused on the narrative that "not losing is a victory."; After the Saif al-Quds campaign (Operation Guardian of the Walls) in May 2021, Hamas' approach began to shift, as the movement came to believe that the destruction of Israel had become a goal that could actually be achieved. The change was reflected in a series of public statements by Hamas leaders, although they could have been perceived on the Israeli side (and probably were) as boasts; Hamas documents taken from Gaza during the Gaza Strip War confirm what Hamas officials had publicly stated and indicate that the plan to eliminate the State of Israel had been regarded in recent years, especially after Operation Guardian of the Walls, by the Hamas leadership, especially Yahya al-Sinwar (as well as by its allies, Iran and Hezbollah), as executable and highly feasible in the near future. Those were not just empty words, they were backed by the development of practical plans and ongoing coordination between the elements of the "resistance axis." They felt Israel had become vulnerable while Hamas and other 'resistance' forces had grown stronger. The strategic shift by Hamas was not understood at all by Israel; In ITIC assessment, the severe blow suffered by Hamas and most elements of the "resistance axis" will probably push back the play to destroy Israel, returning it to the level of a vision for the future. In the long run, if Hamas recovers and receives support from Iran, it is not improbable that the movement could once again regard destroying Israel as a practical plan.
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Turkey as a Center for Hamas Activity

Turkey, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is one of Hamas' most important strategic allies. Turkey hosts senior Hamas figures, and provides political, diplomatic and propaganda support, as well as economic and humanitarian assistance, including during the Gaza war; Hamas has established one of its most important overseas centers in Turkey, primarily operated by prisoners released in the Gilad Shalit exchange deal of 2011. It uses Turkey to plan terrorist attacks and transfer funds to finance terrorist activities inside Israel, in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip, and to raise and launder money in support of its terrorist operations, including the October 7, 2023, attack and massacre; Hamas documents seized by IDF forces in the Gaza Strip during the Gaza Strip War showed the relationship between Hamas and Turkey, including how Hamas used Turkey for terrorist activities against Israel; In ITIC assessment, given the Hamas operational infrastructure in Turkey, its deep involvement in terrorism and Turkey’s hostility toward Israel, Hamas will seek to strengthen and expand its ties with Turkey. The deportation of terrorists, particularly senior terrorists from Israel, to Turkey in particular, is likely to reinforce the Hamas operational base in Turkey and facilitate the rebuilding of its military wing and the return of released prisoners to terrorist activities. A Turkish aegis would strengthen the "external" Hamas leadership and increase Hamas terrorist activity outside Israel. Given Turkey’s location and its strained relations with Israel, Israeli security forces would face significant challenges in effectively countering Hamas infrastructure and activities in Turkey.
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