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In-Depth Studies

Captured documents reveal how Iran smuggles weapons via Syria and Jordan

For years, Iran, its Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Qods Force, have been operating a network smuggling weapons and funds to its proxies in the Middle East, primarily Hezbollah and Hamas. Until the overthrow of the Assad regime in early December 2024, Syria was the main smuggling route for arming Hezbollah with advanced precision weapons, many of which were used to attack Israel; Documents captured from Hamas during the war in the Gaza Strip expose Iran's aerial, maritime and overland routes to smuggle weapons to Syria, Lebanon, and Judea and Samaria. Some documents related to the arrest in Jordan of a smuggling network affiliated with Hamas and showed how Hamas and Iran transfer weapons to Judea and Samaria in hopes of igniting yet another front against Israel. They also related to Israeli and American methods to prevent arms smuggling; In recent years, Jordan has intensified its efforts to combat the smuggling of weapons and drugs by networks directed by Iran and its militias, from south Syria into Jordanian territory. Israel has also increased its efforts to prevent arms from being smuggled to Hezbollah, Judea and Samaria; The overthrow of the Assad regime undermined Iran's ability to transfer weapons through Syria, especially to Hezbollah, which is trying to recover from the blows inflicted by Israel. However, Iran's commitment to the "resistance" will most probably cause Tehran to seek alternative routes to replace the one through Syria and transfer weapons to its proxies for attacks on Israel.
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The Power Groups in Syria after the Fall of the Assad Regime

On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamist-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwest Syria. Other groups, sponsored by Turkey, initiated the Operation Dawn of Liberation in the Aleppo area, while another coalition of rebel organizations took control of southern Syria. On December 8, 2024, the rebels occupied Damascus and overthrew the Assad regime; The campaign was managed by three umbrella groups: the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army and the Southern Operations Room. Each was made up of organizations, units and political entities with ideological, religious and ethnic differences and varying interests; Also to be taken into account are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militia led by Kurdish forces and supported by the United States, whose objective is to strengthen Kurdish control in northern Syria and which is currently in conflict with the new power structures in Syria; The factions which have taken control in Syria have yet to issue official statements regarding Israel, even in light of IDF strikes on strategic facilities across Syria and the seizure of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights; Despite the cooperation of revolutionary forces in overthrowing Assad's regime and statements from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) about his desire to establish a government representing all Syrians, the large number of groups and conflicting interests are likely to lead to internal conflicts and exacerbate the chaos within Syria. However, if the parties learn from mistakes made in other parts of the Middle East after the overthrow of authoritarian regimes, such as Iraq and Libya, and manage to find an inclusive formula which meets the interests of the various groups and communities, in ITIC assessment, in the long term opportunities exist for stabilization in Syria.
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Anti-Israel Terrorism from the Palestinian Authority, 2023

In 2023 there was a significant increase in the extent of terrorism and violence, with 179 critical terrorist attacks carried out, compared with 86 in 2022; Twenty-seven were carried out on Israeli territory (16 in 2022); 43 people were killed, 37 civilians and six members of the security forces, compared with 30 killed during 2022; Shootings were prominent, with 108 attacks which accounted for about 60% of the total number (46 in 2022); There were also 35 stabbings, about 19% of the total; 20 vehicle ramming attacks, about 11% of the total; 5 IED attacks and 5 combined attacks. There were also several thousand incidents in which rocks were thrown and several hundred in which Molotov cocktails were thrown, but not all were documented. Due to the Gaza Strip War (Operation Iron Swords) which broke out on October 7, 2023, the summary of 2023 was released considerably late and in an abbreviated format, and does not include terrorism from the Gaza Strip.
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Summary of ISIS Activity around the Globe in 2023

In 2023, there was a sharp decline (about 50%) in the scope of ISIS’s terrorist activity around the world compared with 2022. The downward trend in the volume of activity had continued since 2020, however, 2023 saw the sharpest decline; ISIS’s activity continued to be focused on Africa, while in Syria and Iraq, ISIS’s core countries, the scope of activity was low; In Afghanistan’s Khorasan Province, there was a 75% decrease in activity and a 50% decrease in casualties compared with the previous year, but the lethality of the attacks increased; The characteristics of ISIS’s terrorist activity in 2023 were similar to those in 2022: The vast majority of terrorist attacks were carried out by relatively small squads, usually equipped with light and medium weapons, and by detonating IEDs. The terrorist attacks carried out by the organization’s operatives in Africa, especially in the Sahel region, were on a larger scale and caused many casualties, albeit less than in 2022; Although ISIS seems to have suffered defeats in most of its provinces of activity (except Africa), it seems that the idea itself persists and that the radical Sunni ideology is still trying and will try in the future to spread its message and gain supporters in countries around the world, including Western countries, by exploiting various events to attract the Muslim population to the idea of the Islamic State.
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