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Hezbollah

The Completion of the First Phase of Hezbollah’s Disarmament

On January 8, 2026, the commander of the Lebanese army, Rodolph Haykal, informed the Lebanese government that the first phase of the state's monopoly on weapons had been successfully implemented south of the Litani River except for areas under IDF control; The government ministers opposed to Hezbollah demanded a schedule for continuing disarmament, while Hezbollah and Amal ministers conditioned progress on halting Israeli "violations." The government instructed the army to prepare a plan for disarmament north of the Litani River, but no schedule was set; Hezbollah did not directly relate to the army's announcement, reiterating its position that Lebanon in general and the organization in particular had fully implemented the ceasefire agreement, and Israel had to honor its commitments; Lebanon's president, prime minister and parliament speaker welcomed the announcement, noting that the army had to be provided with the tools required for its missions. Prime Minister Salam said the role of the "resistance" had ended with Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000, and that today only the state and the army defended Lebanon; Hezbollah's political opponents were dissatisfied with the delay in disarming the organization, noting that made it difficult for the country to rehabilitate itself after the war. The Lebanese foreign minister met in Beirut with the Iranian foreign minister and made it clear to him that Hezbollah had to disarm in accordance with the government decision; Lebanon is apparently taking a time-out in implementing the state's monopoly on weapons. The first phase, south of the Litani River, is being represented as an achievement, but with no decision to move northward and an attempt to buy time with the argument that first Israel has to end its "violations" of the ceasefire agreement. In ITIC assessment, in the foreseeable future the army will expand its deployment in south Lebanon and make preparations for disarmament north of the Litani River, but without a binding schedule because of Hezbollah's lack of cooperation. In all probability, transitioning to the second phase will remain a declarative goal, dependent mainly on Israeli and international pressure and on an internal political consensus which has yet to ripen.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (December 31, 2025 – January 7, 2026)

The Iranian ambassador to Beirut rejected claims recently voiced in Lebanon against Iran and Iran’s Supreme Leader, arguing that the intensified media campaign is based on false accusations and lies; An Iranian commentary article claimed that Tehran seeks to strengthen Lebanon’s sovereignty rather than weaken the central government in Beirut, despite its support for Hezbollah; Iran reportedly has tightened oversight of the transfer of funds to Hezbollah and is determining priorities in resource allocation; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized remarks by Syria’s finance minister regarding Damascus’ intention to demand compensation from Iran for damage incurred during the civil war and for Iran’s assistance to the Assad regime; The commander of the IRGC’s Qods Force reportedly paid a secret visit to Baghdad to meet with senior pro-Iranian Shiite militia figures; A senior Houthi official condemned the visit of Israel’s foreign minister to Somaliland and warned that any “Zionist” presence on Somali soil constitutes a military target; Reports indicated that the Houthis carried out missile launches toward the sea in preparation for a new confrontation with Israel. “Yemeni security sources” said that Qods Force officers and senior Houthi officials discussed possible responses in the event of a new Israeli-American attack on Iran; Iraq’s prime minister once again stressed the need to disarm the armed militias, but the militias’ Coordination Committee issued a counter-statement declaring that “the resistance’s weapons are sacred.”
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (December 29, 2025 – January 5, 2026)

The IDF continued attacking Hezbollah targets to enforce the November 2024 ceasefire agreement and to prevent the organization's renewed military buildup. The forces attacked a Radwan Force training compound and eliminated two Hezbollah operatives; Hezbollah's secretary general called for arming the Lebanese army so it could confront "enemies" and expressed pride in the organization's ties with Iran; The president of Lebanon expressed cautious optimism about preventing renewed escalation, reportedly stemming from his understanding that for the time being, the American president and the Israeli prime minister had agreed not to carry out large-scale attacks in Lebanon because they were focused on the possibility of taking action against Iran; The Lebanese prime minister said the weapons Hezbollah would hand over to the state would not be thrown into the sea or transferred to Israel. According to reports, the commander of the Lebanese army is expected to announce the completion of the first phase of disarmament south of the Litani River at a cabinet meeting on January 8, 2026, although "Lebanese military sources" admitted that Hezbollah had not fully withdrawn from the area; Iran has reportedly increased oversight of the transfer of funds to Hezbollah and is setting priorities for resource allocation; Criticism was voiced in Lebanon over Hamas' refusal to hand over its medium and heavy weapons to the Lebanese army, after Fatah handed over large quantities of weapons in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp.
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Spotlight on Terrorism – December 2025

During December 2025 the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continued, which also led to a halt in the Houthi attacks. Counterterrorism activity in Judea and Samaria continued. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire remained in force, despite IDF attacks on Hezbollah targets; The Gaza Strip: The ceasefire of October 10, 2025 remained in force. IDF forces attacked suspects who crossed the Yellow Line and eliminated terrorist operatives in response to ceasefire violations, including Ra'ad Saad, one of the senior operatives in the Hamas military wing; Israel, Judea and Samaria: Six terrorist attacks were carried out in which two Israeli civilians were killed and eight IDF soldiers were wounded. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activity in Judea and Samaria; The IDF continued attacks to prevent Hezbollah from violating the ceasefire understandings of November 27, 2024 and to prevent the organization from reconstructing its military capabilities and replenishing its arsenal. Nine Hezbollah terrorist operatives were eliminated, one of whom was also serving in the Lebanese army, and an operative of Iran's Qods Force and one from the Amal Movement were eliminated; IDF forces continued operating in southern Syria, detained an ISIS operative and confiscated weapons; The Houthis did not attack Israel or shipping in the Red Sea, and have not since the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect. They also announced the deaths of senior figures killed in United States attacks in early 2025; Two Muslim terrorists suspected of being affiliated with ISIS carried out a shooting attack at a Hanukkah event at Bondi Beach in Sydney, killing 15 people.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (December 24-31, 2025)

The Iranian foreign minister said at a conference commemorating Qassem Soleimani that the “Palestinian resistance” has become a decisive player. He made it clear that Tehran would continue its support for the “resistance,” which, he said, shapes the future order in the Middle East; The Iranian ambassador to Beirut met with the Lebanese defense minister and the commander of the Lebanese Army; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson condemned the attack on a mosque in Syria, attributing it to the “illegal interference” in the country and the occupation of parts of its territory; The IRGC has reportedly begun recruiting former commanders in the 4th Division and the military intelligence of the ousted Syrian regime to undermine security in the country. According to another report, supporters of the Assad regime are undergoing training in Houthi camps in Yemen; Iran’s ambassador to Iraq said that the Shiite militias in the country operate and make decisions independently, and that the decision regarding whether Iraq’s prime minister will remain in office rests with the Iraqi public and political forces; The Houthi leader condemned Israel for the “violations” in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, stressing that further rounds of fighting between Israel and the Houthis are “certain.”; Israel’s recognition of Somaliland sparked outrage in the Houthi leadership, which accused it of being an “aggressive step” and threatened to take military action against any Israeli presence in the strategic area of the Horn of Africa.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (December 22-29, 2025)

The IDF continued its activity to enforce the ceasefire agreement and to prevent Hezbollah’s renewed military buildup, and struck targets in south Lebanon and in the northern Beqa'a Valley, including Radwan Force training facilities and launch sites. The forces eliminated four Hezbollah operatives, one of them a soldier on active duty in the Lebanese army, and a terrorist operative in the Qods Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; Hezbollah secretary general Na’im Qassem said they were not afraid of a new war and accused the Lebanese government of making "free concessions" without Israel's fulfilling its commitments under the ceasefire agreement; Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said he hoped the "cloud of war" was receding from Lebanon, after allegedly receiving American guarantees that Israel would not launch a new large-scale campaign; European countries are reportedly working to maintain a presence of their forces in south Lebanon to assist the Lebanese army after the end of UNIFIL’s mandate; Given the [alleged] completion of the first phase of Hezbollah’s disarmament south of the Litani River in accordance with the declaration from the Lebanese government, and Hezbollah’s opposition to further surrender of weapons, it was reported that the Lebanese government had still not made a decision regarding the transition to the second phase of demilitarizing the area between the Litani and Awali Rivers, and that the army commander would not give an order to collect weapons, citing a threat to civil peace in the country; Hezbollah is having difficulty financing housing allowances for tens of thousands of displaced families among its supporters following the intensified blockade of its funding sources.
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