Hezbollah

Spotlight on Terrorism – September 2024

During September 2024 the fighting continued in the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria and south Lebanon, and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Yemen continued attacking Israel; The Gaza Strip: Four rockets were fired at Israeli territory, the lowest monthly figure since Gaza Strip War began on October 7, 2023. Israel continued eliminating the most senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad military leaders; Judea, Samaria and Israel: Terrorists carried out six attacks in Judea, Samaria and east Jerusalem, killing seven Israelis, including four security personnel. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities, focusing on northern Samaria. Sixteen terrorist operatives were killed in airstrikes, including terrorist organization commanders in Tubas, Tulkarm and Qabatya; Lebanon: The fighting between Israel and Lebanon escalated following the explosions of Hezbollah operatives' communications devices and the increase in Israeli attacks, during which senior Hezbollah officials, headed by secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, were eliminated. The IDF launched Operation Northern Arrows. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 298 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel, including cities, towns, villages and IDF bases which had not been attacked since the beginning of the conflict on October 8, 2023. Following the escalation, Hezbollah extended its range of attacks, including the first attack on the Tel Aviv area, and introduced new weapons; The Shi'ite militias: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 31 claims of responsibility for attacking 34 targets in Israeli territory, the highest figure since May 2024. There was no confirmation for most of the launches and some of them were intercepted. The Houthis claimed responsibility for four attacks on Israel, three of which involved surface-to-surface missiles. Israel responded with an airstrike on Yemeni territory.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (September 30 – October 7 ,2024)

On the night of September 30, 2024, the IDF began a limited ground maneuver in south Lebanon. The forces eliminated hundreds of terrorist operatives, and located and destroyed terrorist facilities hidden in civilian sites. Ten IDF soldiers were killed. The IDF continued airstrikes on Hezbollah terrorist targets in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut and throughout the country, and carried out targeted attacks on senior Hezbollah terrorists; This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 148 attacks on targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon, twice the number of attacks of the previous week. Hezbollah announced the launch of Operation Khaybar in response to the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, and launched rocket barrages at the Tel Aviv and Haifa areas. Hezbollah also issued false information regarding the extent of the damage it had done to IDF forces in south Lebanon.; The IDF attacked Hezbollah's intelligence headquarters in Beirut while Hashem Safi al-Din, head of the Central Council and Nasrallah's successor, was present. Hezbollah has not yet officially issued a report on his condition; Senior Hezbollah figures claimed the Israeli attacks and the elimination of senior officials did not affect the organization's activities, including combat against IDF forces in south Lebanon and attacks on Israeli territory. Hezbollah continued to link the cessation of fighting in south Lebanon to the cessation of the war in the Gaza Strip; Lebanese authorities said that more than 2,000 people had been killed in Lebanon since the fighting began on October 8, 2023. In addition, more than 1.2 million people have been displaced, most of them since the increase in Israeli attacks which began on September 23, 2024; The prime minister of the Lebanese interim government called for a ceasefire and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The American State Department denied the Lebanese foreign minister's claim that Nasrallah had agreed to a 21-day ceasefire before he was killed in the Israeli attack; Syria: Attacks attributed to Israel were reported in the Damascus and Homs regions.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (September 25 – October 1, 2024)

Senior Iranian officials continued to express support for Hezbollah and Lebanon following the Israeli attack on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut, in which Hezbollah’s secretary-general and the commander of the Qods Force’s Lebanon Corps were killed. The officials threatened that Iran would retaliate against Israel; The Iranian president accused the United States and Europe of lying when they claimed that a ceasefire would be reached in the Gaza Strip if Iran did not respond to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman claimed that Iran had no agents in the region and that the “resistance” organizations represented themselves; Two ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis at central Israel were intercepted. In response, the Israeli Air Force attacked power plants and a seaport used by the Houthis in Ras Issa and al-Hudaydah. Senior Houthi officials claimed that five civilians had been killed and threatened to continue operating against Israel in support of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 23 attacks against targets in Israel, most of them after the announcement that Nasrallah had been killed. The pro-Iranian militias threatened to escalate their attacks if Israeli military forces entered southern Lebanon.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (September 24 – October 1, 2024)

IDF forces continued to focus their activities on the southern and central Gaza Strip, including attacks on Hamas facilities operating in civilian sites. An IDF soldier was injured in a clash in the southern Gaza Strip; Hamas said the fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon would stop only if Israel stopped the war; The director of an aid organization was killed by Hamas ministry of the interior forces "by mistake."; A senior Hamas official denied publications of an agreement with Fatah on civilian management of the Gaza Strip; Israel, Judea and Samaria: A suspect was detained for planning a combined attack in the Galilee. The Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria, detaining dozens of wanted Palestinians; The Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas spoke at the UN, accused Israel of committing "genocide" and called for international protection of the Palestinian Authority and the imposition of sanctions on Israel.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (September 23 – 30 ,2024)

This past week, the IDF attacked thousands of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including advanced weapons hidden in civilian locations. High-ranking Hezbollah terrorists were killed in targeted attacks in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut, including Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, and Ali Karki, commander of the "southern front."; This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 77 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel, including the first launches of surface-to-surface missiles at the greater Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas. Several people were injured by debris falling from interceptions and property was damaged; Hezbollah announced the death of ten senior figures and operatives in IDF attacks in Lebanon, with Nasrallah heading the list. However, according to estimates, the number of dead was higher and Hezbollah has announced only the most senior dead. In addition, 61 deaths of terrorist operatives from other organizations were reported, including the Hamas commander in Lebanon and 50 Amal operatives; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah deputy secretary general, delivered the first speech by a senior member of the organization since the death of Nasrallah, promising that Hezbollah would continue its "support" for the Gaza Strip and the "defense" of Lebanon. He claimed a new secretary general would be elected in the near future; The authorities in Lebanon reported at least 1,640 people killed since the fighting began on October 8, 2023, more than 1,000 since September 16, 2024. Najib Mikati, prime minister of the Lebanese interim government, estimated that the number of displaced people in Lebanon could reach one million. The UN said that 100,000 people had crossed the border into Syria; Syria: The IDF eliminated the head of the Hamas network in southern Syria. According to reports, Israeli aircraft attacked along the Syria-Lebanon border to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah. 
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Israeli Attack in Beirut Eliminates Hassan Nasrallah

On September 27, 2024, the IDF eliminated Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, in an attack on the organization's headquarters under a residential building in the southern suburb of Beirut. Other senior Hezbollah terrorists were killed, including Ali Karaki, commander of the "southern front."; Hezbollah confirmed the death of Nasrallah, nicknamed "Master of the Resistance," calling him "one of its greatest leaders," and its leadership promised to continue the jihad in support of the Gaza Strip and in the "defense of Lebanon". Meanwhile, Hezbollah continued attacking Israel, mostly civilian targets, but did not link the attacks to Nasrallah's death. At this stage, Hezbollah continues attacking and expanding its firing range; The Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets reported that Hezbollah would not stop attacking Israel as part of the "front supporting the Gaza Strip"; Senior Iranian figures condemned the killing of Nasrallah, saying they stood with Hezbollah and Lebanon, but did not threaten a direct military response, although they are probably considering one. Other organizations in the "resistance axis" expressed condolences on Nasrallah's death and praised his role in "the struggle" against Israel. The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq intensified their attacks on Israel; Lebanese politicians eulogized Nasrallah. Opponents of Hezbollah in Lebanon and across the Middle East took to the social media to rejoice; In ITIC assessment, eliminating Nasrallah and the Hezbollah senior military leadership in recent weeks, along with the IDF's ongoing and increasing damage to the organization's chain of command and its military and strategic capabilities throughout Lebanon, has damaged Hezbollah's ability to carry out intensive attacks on Israel, at least in the short term. However, field-level commanders will try to attack more distant targets in Israeli territory, including the greater Tel Aviv area and strategic sites; Nasrallah's most probable successor is Hashem Safi al-Din, the chairman of Hezbollah's Executive Council, who is close to Iran. Apparently Hezbollah will reorganize its ranks with Iranian coordination and assistance and will continue fighting against Israel, partly for survival, and will continue to connect its fighting to the fighting in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah may also seek to intensify the fighting and expand its firing range after Nasrallah's funeral to exact a price from Israel and be able to present a "victory narrative," and may attack an Israeli target abroad; In ITIC assessment, any Hezbollah decision regarding a coordinated and extensive response, independently or in coordination with the other "resistance axis" organizations, depends on Iran, which has to process events and prepare accordingly, while trying to avoid a regional war; In ITIC assessment, Nasrallah's absence, after 32 years as leader of Hezbollah, can have far-reaching consequences throughout the Middle East. For Lebanon, it can mean an opportunity for the government and military to reinstate their authority (with international assistance) in south Lebanon. It may also have an impact on Lebanon's political system, after Hezbollah prevented the country from electing a new president for more than a year. In the Gaza Strip, it might influence Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, to reach an agreement for a ceasefire and release the hostages. 
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