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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 25 – March 4, 2026)

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a combined military offensive against Iran, during which more than 1,500 military, security, and regime targets were struck. In the opening strike, senior figures in the Iranian leadership were killed, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the secretary of the Supreme Defense Council, the chief of staff of the Armed Forces, the minister of Defense, and the IRGC commander; As part of IDF strikes in Iran and Lebanon, senior Qods Force officials responsible for liaison with Hezbollah and for assisting the organization’s military buildup were eliminated; It was reported that contact between Iranian officials responsible for the “Palestinian portfolio” and Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and other Palestinian factions has been severed; According to reports, the Houthi leadership is continuing to monitor developments before deciding whether to join the fighting alongside Iran; Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for approximately one hundred attacks using missiles and drones against American bases and facilities in Iraq, Jordan, and the Gulf states.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (February 23 – March 2, 2026)

On the night of March 1, 2026, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel, announcing that it was a response to the elimination of Iran's leader Khamenei and to the Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The IDF responded by attacking Hezbollah targets and the elimination of senior figures in the organization in south Lebanon and the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut; In response to the rocket fire, the Lebanese government banned Hezbollah's military and security activities and limited it to politics. Prime Minister Salam instructed the army to accelerate the disarmament of Hezbollah north of the Litani River "by all means." Reportedly, Speaker of Parliament Berri is preparing to remove political cover from Hezbollah because of the rocket fire; Before Hezbollah entered the war, it condemned the Israeli and American strikes in Iran and the elimination of Khamenei but did not explicitly say it would attack Israel. The Lebanese leadership tried to persuade Hezbollah not to intervene in the Israel-America war on Iran out of concern of a broad Israeli response against Lebanon; Before the war broke out on February 28, 2026, the IDF continued attacks in south Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military assets as part of the effort to enforce the November 2024 ceasefire agreement and prevent the organization's renewed military buildup and possible preparations to attack Israel. The IDF attacked Radwan Force camps, launch positions and tunnels; Due to the regional developments, the conference in support of the Lebanese army scheduled to convene in Paris on March 5, 2026 will be postponed to April 2026; Reportedly, the former head of Hezbollah's coordination and liaison unit, Wafiq Safa, was appointed assistant to the head of the political council. 
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The Resistance Axis Reacts to the Israel-US War against Iran and the Elimination of Ali Khamenei

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a combined preemptive strike against Iran, attacking dozens of military, security and government targets across the country. Iran’s leader, Ali Khamenei, commanders of the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Khamenei's senior advisors and dozens of other officials were killed in the strikes; Iran confirmed the deaths of Khamenei and the others and announced the establishment of a temporary leadership council. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched Operation True Promise 4, launching missiles and UAVs at Israel and American bases and vessels across the Middle East; The resistance axis organizations in Lebanon, the Palestinian arena, Yemen, Iraq and Syria condemned the attack and claimed its objective was to support the vision of a "Greater Israel." They issued mourning notices for Khamenei’s death, stating his decades-long support for the "resistance" and said they would continue their activity against the "Zionist enemy"; On the night of March 1, 2026, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel and claimed it was in response to the elimination of Khamenei, after the organization had previously threatened it would retaliate if Iran’s leader were attacked. Hezbollah intervened despite the fact that the Lebanese leadership had exerted pressure on it in an attempt to prevent the country from being dragged into external conflicts; Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) said they would not open a support front for Iran because of the damage done in the Gaza Strip War and the Houthis have not yet announced a renewal of attacks against Israel and against vessels in the Red Sea. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for launching UAVs at American bases in the Kurdish region in the north of the country and Baghdad following strikes on militia bases which killed at least six operatives; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah’s response was the result of Iranian pressure, despite the calls in Lebanon that it not respond. However, its commitment to Iran outweighed its loyalty to Lebanon and led to an extensive, forceful Israeli response. So far the Houthis have not responded but may join the fighting, although their considerations differ from those of Hezbollah.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 18-25, 2026)

The chairman of Iran’s “Intifada and International Quds Day Headquarters” claimed that the view of the founder of the Islamic Revolution, who characterized Israel as a “cancerous tumor,” has now spread throughout the world and that the Palestinian issue has become the main issue on the international agenda; Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, concluded his term in Beirut and returned to Iran. Mohammad-Reza Raouf Sheibani was appointed to serve a second term as ambassador to Lebanon; IRGC officers are reportedly leading Hezbollah’s preparations for the possibility of an Israeli attack and a US strike against Iran; It was claimed that the senior Shiite cleric in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, conveyed a message to the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad stating that in the event of a US strike resulting in harm to Iran’s Supreme Leader, he would issue a fatwa calling for jihad against US forces in Iraq; The Houthi leadership condemned remarks by the US ambassador to Israel regarding “Greater Israel” and called on Muslim states to act jointly against the “existential threat"; The Houthis have reportedly raised their level of alert in preparation for a possible US strike on Iran and are preparing to employ advanced weapons. A pro-Iranian Shiite militia in Iraq unveiled an underground facility containing drones. 
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Iran Efforts to Circumvent the Sanctions by Smuggling Oil

Iran’s security forces, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, use the sale of oil to finance their activities and those of their proxy terrorist organizations in the Middle East; In September 2025, the UN Security Council activated the snapback mechanism, which reinstated the sanctions which had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear agreement because of Tehran’s failure to meet its international obligations following the Iran-Israel War and the strike on its nuclear facilities; In an attempt to circumvent American and international sanctions, Iran operates a complex network of intermediaries, front companies and a ghost fleet of oil tankers. At the center stands Sepehr Energy Jahan, which serves as a front company for Iran’s armed forces and has been under American sanctions since November 2023; A cyberattack on the company’s servers and a massive leak of internal documents provided evidence of how Sepehr Energy Jahan conducts its illegal activity, exposing a long list of participating front companies, oil tankers and business partners. The documents also show that China remains Iran’s primary oil consumer despite international sanctions; In ITIC assessment, until the mechanisms activating the snapback restrictions go into effect, Iran will advance covert sanction-evasion activity, within which Sepehr Energy Jahan and its CEO Majid Azami play a central role, while continuing its prohibited business relationship with governmental elements in China.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (February 16-23, 2026)

The IDF continued attacking Hezbollah terrorist targets in south Lebanon as part of enforcing the ceasefire agreement of November 2024 and to prevent the organization's renewed military build-up, possibly in preparation for attacks on the State of Israel. At least eight Hezbollah operatives from the organization's rocket array were eliminated in attacks on Hezbollah headquarters in the Beqa'a Valley; Given the growing tension between the United States and Iran, Hezbollah continued to express full support for Tehran and said a military confrontation would be met with "significant deterrence." According to reports, Iranian military officers were managing Hezbollah's preparations for a possible confrontation with Israel; Hezbollah's secretary general said the organization did not want to initiate a war, however they would not disarm since such a move served Israeli interests. He also said he was confident the organization would overcome the difficulties and claimed the right to "resist"; Hezbollah reportedly agreed in principle to a new Lebanese security agreement with Israel, according to which the organization would not attack Israel and would accept supervision of its weapons north of the Litani River, in exchange for the cessation of Israeli attacks, withdrawal of IDF forces and release of Lebanese prisoners; The Lebanese government approved the army's plan to implement the second phase of disarming Hezbollah north of the Litani River within four to eight months, without a specific timetable; Hezbollah ministers did not object; The IDF attacked a Hamas headquarters in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp in Sidon; Hamas confirmed the death of two operatives.
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