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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (October 14 – 28 ,2024)

The IDF forces continued maneuvering in south Lebanon, eliminating hundreds of Hezbollah terrorist operatives, locating and destroying facilities hidden in civilian sites, and locating large quantities of weapons. The Israeli Air Force continued airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and other locations, killing senior Hezbollah leaders and field operatives in targeted attacks. Twenty-one IDF soldiers were killed in fighting in south Lebanon; Over the past two weeks Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 400 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon. Rockets were fired and missiles and drones were launched at targets in northern Israel and deeper into the country, as far as south as the greater the Tel Aviv area, including the prime minister's private residence in Caesarea, IDF bases and defense industry sites. An IDF soldier and a civilian were killed, and significant property damage was reported; Hezbollah confirmed that Hashem Safi al-Din, head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, was killed in an Israeli strike in early October 2024; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah deputy secretary general, said the organization’s goal was to cause Israel pain and suffering, claiming that the Israelis displaced from their homes in northern Israel would not return before a ceasefire. According to reports, Hezbollah will choose a new secretary general only after the fighting ends, in the meantime relying on a shared leadership; Lebanese authorities reported that over 2,653 people had been killed in Lebanon since the start of the fighting on October 8, 2023, and approximately 1.3 million people were displaced. Lebanon’s ministry of the economy noted that so far the war has cost Lebanon $20 billion and was expected to rise; Senior figures in the Lebanese government continued to call for a ceasefire and the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701; The Lebanese Army announced the deaths of six officers and soldiers caused by Israeli strikes. UNIFIL reported that their forces were caught in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah; In an attack on Damascus, the IDF eliminated the new commander of Hezbollah's Unit 4400, responsible for economic operations and weapons smuggling. The IDF continued attacking Syria-Lebanon border crossings used for smuggling weapons.
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The Elimination of Yahya al-Sinwar, Head of Hamas: Reactions and Insights

On October 17, 2024, the IDF spokesperson announced that Yahya al-Sinwar, head of Hamas' political bureau, had been killed in an encounter with IDF forces while he was hiding in a building in Rafah. The IDF spokesperson reported that al-Sinwar's identity became clear only after his body was discovered and that it had not been a targeted killing; Only a day later did Hamas confirm the death of al-Sinwar, who was appointed head of the political bureau at the beginning of September 2024 after the elimination of Isma'il Haniyeh. The movement's announcements praised al-Sinwar's role in leading Operation al-Aqsa Flood (the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre) and his death in a clash with IDF forces, adding that they would continue their "resistance" and would not change their conditions for ending the war in the Gaza Strip and releasing the hostages; The Palestinian Authority and the other Palestinian terrorist organizations condemned the killing, stating he was a symbol of the "resistance" and claiming he had been killed while facing the "enemy"; Iran and the rest of the "resistance axis" stated that al-Sinwar was a "fighter" and a symbol of the "resistance," and promised to continue their support for the Palestinian "resistance." Hamas and "resistance axis" supporters on the social networks praised al-Sinwar as having stood up to the "enemy" until the last minute, while Hamas opponents did not hide their satisfaction at his death; In ITIC assessment, his death might increase the importance of the "external" leadership in Qatar, but it is possible that Hamas will not reveal the name of the new leader to make it difficult for Israel to eliminate him or exert pressure on him in the negotiations. In ITIC assessment, al-Sinwar's brother, Muhammad al-Sinwar, is expected to fill his place in the leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, both at the "political" and the military level. In ITIC assessment, in the near future the Hamas leadership will not change its positions regarding negotiations to end the war in the Gaza Strip, which are demands for a complete halt to the fighting, a complete withdrawal of IDF forces from the Strip, and the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, especially the prisoners with blood on their hands, in exchange for the release of the hostages. However, if the "external" Hamas leadership becomes the dominant actor, it may be possible to exert sufficient pressure to achieve flexibility regarding the details of the deal and the future leadership in the Gaza Strip.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (October 9-15, 2024)

Iranian officials continued to threaten that they would retaliate for any possible Israeli attack on Iran following the Iranian missile attack on Israel on October 1, 2024; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Qatar, Iraq, and Oman this week as part of his diplomatic trip to the region amid the recent developments in Lebanon and the fear of an Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack; Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Majles, visited Lebanon and toured Beirut’s Dahiyeh. The visit reflects Iran’s increasing efforts to maintain its influence in Lebanon amid the severe blow to Hezbollah’s leadership and Israel’s ongoing military moves in Lebanon; The IRGC announced that the body of IRGC’s Qods Force Lebanon Corps commander Abbas Nilforoushan had been recovered. Nilforoushan was killed in an Israeli Air Force airstrike against the Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut, in which Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah was also killed; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for 15 drone attacks against targets in Israel. The militias are preparing for a possible Israeli attack in Iraq and have threatened to retaliate against Israel and American interests in the event of an attack on Iran. In addition, the militias threatened to carry out suicide bombing attacks against IDF forces in southern Lebanon if approval for such actions was obtained. Attacks attributed to the United States hit targets of pro-Iranian militias in Syria; The Houthis claimed responsibility for two attacks against vessels in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. There were no casualties.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (October 7 – 14 ,2024)

IDF forces continued their maneuver in south Lebanon. The forces eliminated hundreds of terrorist operatives, located and destroyed terrorist facilities hidden in civilian sites and located large quantities of weapons. The IDF continued airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and throughout Lebanon, and carried out targeted attacks of senior Hezbollah terrorists and terrorists operatives on the ground. An IDF soldier was killed. A UAV hit an IDF base, killing four IDF soldiers and injuring dozens. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the attack and for 152 attacks on targets in Israel and IDF forces in south Lebanon. Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah deputy secretary general, gave a speech describing the organization's difficulties after the death of Hassan Nasrallah, adding that they were in the process of choosing a new secretary general. He claimed the IDF had no successes in Lebanon, said he supported Hamas and contacts for a ceasefire in Lebanon, not conditioning it in a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. According to increasing reports, Wafiq Safa, chairman of Hezbollah's Executive Council was injured in an Israeli attack. Hezbollah continues the batting for hearts and minds by publishing propaganda videos of attacking IDF soldiers and collecting information within Israel. Lebanon authorities said that more than 2,250 people had been killed in Lebanon since the beginning of the fighting on October 8, 2023, and more than 1.2 million people were displaced. Lebanon's political leadership called for a ceasefire. UNIFIL reported that several of its soldiers were wounded and positions damaged in south Lebanon by IDF activities. The UN and various countries condemned the attacks. The IDF reported that Hezbollah fired rockets and launched missiles from areas close to UNIFIL forces. Syria has reported attacks attributed to Israel in the Damascus and al-Quneitra region.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (October 1 – 9 , 2024)

On October 1, 2024, the IRGC fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Hassan Nasrallah and a senior IRGC officer in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. Most of the missiles were intercepted by the Israeli Air Force and air defense forces, in collaboration with  other countries. After the attack, senior Iranian officials stressed that the attack was carried out as part of their legitimate rights and that Iran did not want further escalation. However, they threatened a powerful response to an Israeli attack against them. Iranian Supreme Leader  and other senior figures continued to express support for the Palestinian “resistance”. President Pezeshkian met with a senior Hamas delegation in Qatar and called for unity in the face of “Israel’s crimes.”  The IRGC denied that Qods Force commander Qaani had been hit in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for 26 attacks against targets in Israel using drones and cruise missiles. Two IDF soldiers were killed by a drone in the Golan Heights.  The pro-Iranian Iraqi militias continued to express willingness to fight alongside Hezbollah in Lebanon and threatened retaliation against American interests if the United States helped Israel attack Iran. The Houthis announced airstrikes using ballistic missiles and drones against Israel. The Israeli Air Force intercepted a ballistic missile and a drone. There were no casualties. In addition, the Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks against two vessels in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (October 1 – 8 , 2024)

One year since the October 7 Hamas attack and massacre: Senior Hamas figures marked the first anniversary of the start of Operation al-Aqsa Flood with messages "justifying" the attack and praising the Palestinian "resistance" and throughout the Middle East, alongside accusing Israel of committing "genocide"; IDF forces began extensive activity in the Jebalya refugee camp and Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip, alongside continued activity in the central and southern Gaza Strip, and attacks on Hamas facilities operating from civilian locations. An IDF fighter was killed fighting in the northern Gaza Strip. Eighteen rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory, including at the Greater Tel Aviv area, most of them on October 7, 2024; Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, renewed contact with Qatar after several weeks of inactivity. A senior Hamas terrorist rejected a proposal to exile the movement's leadership to Sudan. The spokesman for the Hamas military wing warned that IDF activity endangered the lives of the hostages; The Palestinian Authority prime minister announced the establishment of a national working party for reconstructing the Gaza Strip. Hamas and Fatah delegations arrived in Cairo to discuss the establishment of a "national consensus" government and the post-war management of the Strip; A Hamas delegation met with the president of Iran. Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad congratulated Iran for attacking Israel with ballistic missiles; This past week Palestinian terrorists carried out three attacks, murdering seven civilians and a policewoman. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria; at least 12 terrorist operatives were killed in an airstrike in Tulkarm.
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