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Spotlight on Terrorism – October 2024

During October 2024, fighting continued in the Gaza Strip, Judea, Samaria, and south Lebanon, with attacks on Israel from pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Yemen; Lebanon: The fighting escalated with the start of the IDF maneuver against Hezbollah in south Lebanon on October 1, 2024. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 806 attacks on IDF forces and military, security and civilian targets in Israel as far as the Tel Aviv area, and deployed new weapons. Due to high number of casualties, Hezbollah stopped issuing mourning notices for senior figures and operatives, except for the announcement of the elimination of Hashem Safi al-Din, head of the Executive Council, who was to be appointed Hezbollah secretary general; The Gaza Strip: The terrorist organizations fired 28 rockets at Israeli territory, compared to four rockets in September. Targeted killings of senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist operatives continued, including Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip; Israel, Judea and Samaria: Palestinian terrorists carried out eight attacks were carried out in Israel, Judea, Samaria and East Jerusalem, compared to six in September; eight civilians and two security personnel were killed. Three of the terrorists held Israeli identification cards and two others held Jordanian citizenship. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations focused on northern Samaria. At least 27 terrorist operatives were eliminated in exchanges of fire and airstrikes, including commanders of terrorist organizations in Tulkarm, Nablus and Jenin, as well as operatives preparing to carry out attacks; Shi'ite militias: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 72 claims of responsibility for attacking 76 targets in Israeli territory, the highest number since the attacks began in November 2023, prompted by the escalation in the fighting between in Lebanon and the killing of al-Sinwar. The Saraya Awliya al-Dam militia issued 17 claims of responsibility. Most of the Iraqi militia launches were not verified, and some were intercepted. Two IDF soldiers were killed by an UAV in the Golan Heights, the first fatalities from attacks originating in Iraq. The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacking eight targets in Israel, compared to four in September.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (November 4 – 11 ,2024)

The IDF forces continued their maneuver in south Lebanon. Preparations to expand it included evacuation notices issued to additional communities. The forces neutralized Hezbollah operatives, located and destroyed terrorist facilities hidden in civilian sites, and discovered large quantities of weapons. The IDF continued airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and other locations in Lebanon. An IDF soldier who was injured in south Lebanon on October 26, 2024, died of his wounds; This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 155 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel, as well as against IDF forces in south Lebanon, using rockets, missiles (including, for the first time, an Iranian surface-to-surface Fateh-11 missile), and UAVs were launched at targets in northern and central Israel, causing significant damage to property; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah secretary general, said the organization was determined to continue a war of attrition which would compel Israel to cease fighting, leading to indirect negotiations for an agreement in south Lebanon. Hezbollah accused the Lebanese army of concealing details about an IDF operation in which a Hezbollah operative was taken during a raid in northern Lebanon; Senior Lebanese officials continued to claim a desire to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 as part of a ceasefire and announced they were preparing to deploy 5,000 additional soldiers to the south Lebanon area; The IDF confirmed carrying out strikes on facilities belonging to Hezbollah intelligence headquarters in Damascus and Hezbollah weapons storage facilities in western Syria. According to claims, Israel attempted to target the head of Hezbollah’s Golan File in an attack on Damascus.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (October 28 – November 4 ,2024)

The IDF continued its maneuvers in south Lebanon. The forces intercepted Hezbollah terrorist operatives, located and destroyed facilities concealed in civilian sites, and found large quantities of weapons. Israeli Air Force airstrikes targeted Hezbollah positions in Beirut and throughout Lebanon, and targeted strikes eliminated terrorist senior figures and field operatives. An IDF soldier wounded in south Lebanon died his injuries; Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 186 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon. Rockets, missiles and UAVs were launched at the north of Israel and further south, reaching as far as Tel Aviv and causing significant property damage; Hezbollah announced that Sheikh Na'im Qassem has been appointed the organization's new secretary general, replacing Hassan Nasrallah; The IDF eliminated several senior Hezbollah terrorist operatives who commanded sectors in south Lebanon and were responsible for firing rockets into Israeli territory. A Hezbollah naval operative was taken by the IDF in north Lebanon and removed to Israel for questioning; A senior Hezbollah-affiliated commentator claimed Israel would increase its attacks on Lebanon in the near future to completely destroy Lebanese villages near the Israeli border; Lebanese authorities reported that more than 2,968 people had been killed in Lebanon since the outbreak of hostilities on October 8, 2023; Senior Lebanese figures continued to call for a ceasefire and the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701; The IDF conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah arms warehouses in the al-Qusayr area near the Syria-Lebanon border. The IDF also detained an operative in Syrian territory who was working for Iran to gather intelligence on IDF forces near the border area.
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Sheikh Na’im Qassem, Hezbollah’s Newly – Appointed Secretary General

On October 29, 2024, Hezbollah announced that the Shura Council had appointed Sheikh Na'im Qassem as the organization's new secretary general, replacing Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut on September 27, 2024. In his first speech Qassem pledged to continue in Nasrallah's path and said Hezbollah would end the current war against Israel only on its own terms; Qassem is one of Hezbollah's founders and has served as the deputy secretary general since 1991. However, he has no military training and is considered the organization's chief ideologue, focusing on Hezbollah's political and social aspects; One of Hezbollah's most important spokesmen, in his books and public statements he has justified the "resistance" against Israel and denied its right to exist. He has also admitted that Hezbollah operates according to directives from Iran; Qassem was not considered the leading candidate to replace Hassan Nasrallah, but he was appointed by default after the elimination of Hashem Safi al-Din, the head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, who had been marked as Nasrallah's designated successor. In ITIC assessment, the objective of appointing Na'im Qassem was to represent continuity within the organization's leadership during ongoing combat with Israel, with Hezbollah likely to choose a permanent secretary general after a lasting ceasefire has been achieved. Despite Qassem’s long role in Hezbollah, his lack of military experience means Iran can be expected to oversee Hezbollah’s fighting by means of representatives from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and its Qods Force, and to influence Hezbollah's combat against Israel and decisions regarding a potential ceasefire.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (October 14 – 28 ,2024)

The IDF forces continued maneuvering in south Lebanon, eliminating hundreds of Hezbollah terrorist operatives, locating and destroying facilities hidden in civilian sites, and locating large quantities of weapons. The Israeli Air Force continued airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and other locations, killing senior Hezbollah leaders and field operatives in targeted attacks. Twenty-one IDF soldiers were killed in fighting in south Lebanon; Over the past two weeks Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 400 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon. Rockets were fired and missiles and drones were launched at targets in northern Israel and deeper into the country, as far as south as the greater the Tel Aviv area, including the prime minister's private residence in Caesarea, IDF bases and defense industry sites. An IDF soldier and a civilian were killed, and significant property damage was reported; Hezbollah confirmed that Hashem Safi al-Din, head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, was killed in an Israeli strike in early October 2024; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah deputy secretary general, said the organization’s goal was to cause Israel pain and suffering, claiming that the Israelis displaced from their homes in northern Israel would not return before a ceasefire. According to reports, Hezbollah will choose a new secretary general only after the fighting ends, in the meantime relying on a shared leadership; Lebanese authorities reported that over 2,653 people had been killed in Lebanon since the start of the fighting on October 8, 2023, and approximately 1.3 million people were displaced. Lebanon’s ministry of the economy noted that so far the war has cost Lebanon $20 billion and was expected to rise; Senior figures in the Lebanese government continued to call for a ceasefire and the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701; The Lebanese Army announced the deaths of six officers and soldiers caused by Israeli strikes. UNIFIL reported that their forces were caught in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah; In an attack on Damascus, the IDF eliminated the new commander of Hezbollah's Unit 4400, responsible for economic operations and weapons smuggling. The IDF continued attacking Syria-Lebanon border crossings used for smuggling weapons.
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The Elimination of Yahya al-Sinwar, Head of Hamas: Reactions and Insights

On October 17, 2024, the IDF spokesperson announced that Yahya al-Sinwar, head of Hamas' political bureau, had been killed in an encounter with IDF forces while he was hiding in a building in Rafah. The IDF spokesperson reported that al-Sinwar's identity became clear only after his body was discovered and that it had not been a targeted killing; Only a day later did Hamas confirm the death of al-Sinwar, who was appointed head of the political bureau at the beginning of September 2024 after the elimination of Isma'il Haniyeh. The movement's announcements praised al-Sinwar's role in leading Operation al-Aqsa Flood (the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre) and his death in a clash with IDF forces, adding that they would continue their "resistance" and would not change their conditions for ending the war in the Gaza Strip and releasing the hostages; The Palestinian Authority and the other Palestinian terrorist organizations condemned the killing, stating he was a symbol of the "resistance" and claiming he had been killed while facing the "enemy"; Iran and the rest of the "resistance axis" stated that al-Sinwar was a "fighter" and a symbol of the "resistance," and promised to continue their support for the Palestinian "resistance." Hamas and "resistance axis" supporters on the social networks praised al-Sinwar as having stood up to the "enemy" until the last minute, while Hamas opponents did not hide their satisfaction at his death; In ITIC assessment, his death might increase the importance of the "external" leadership in Qatar, but it is possible that Hamas will not reveal the name of the new leader to make it difficult for Israel to eliminate him or exert pressure on him in the negotiations. In ITIC assessment, al-Sinwar's brother, Muhammad al-Sinwar, is expected to fill his place in the leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, both at the "political" and the military level. In ITIC assessment, in the near future the Hamas leadership will not change its positions regarding negotiations to end the war in the Gaza Strip, which are demands for a complete halt to the fighting, a complete withdrawal of IDF forces from the Strip, and the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, especially the prisoners with blood on their hands, in exchange for the release of the hostages. However, if the "external" Hamas leadership becomes the dominant actor, it may be possible to exert sufficient pressure to achieve flexibility regarding the details of the deal and the future leadership in the Gaza Strip.
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