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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 13—20, 2024)

This week, senior Iranian officials resumed their threats to retaliate for the Israeli attack on Iran on October 26, 2024. They stressed that Iran is committed to taking revenge on Israel and would do so at the time and in the manner it saw fit; High-level reciprocal visits between Iran and Syria: Ali Larijani, advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, visited Syria and Lebanon and met with senior government officials in Damascus and Beirut. The Iranian defense minister also visited Syria and met with senior government officials, headed by President Assad. The Syrian foreign minister also visited Tehran and met with his Iranian counterpart; It was reported that Iran had informed Hezbollah of its commitment to rebuild southern Lebanon, the Dahiyeh in Beirut, and the destruction caused in the Beqaa Valley after the war. The IRGC deputy commander and the Iranian foreign minister emphasized Iran's continued commitment to supporting Hezbollah and the “resistance front” in the region; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 17 statements claiming responsibility for drone attacks against targets in Israel. The Saraya Awliya al-Dam militia claimed responsibility for four more attacks; The IDF Spokesperson announced the interception of at least five drones, some of them in Syrian territory. Israel reportedly conveyed a message to the Iraqi government that if militia attacks did not stop, it would attack Iraq. “Elements” in the militias threatened to respond by expanding attacks against Israel if it acted against them, and the Iraqi government claimed that it was working to prevent the use of Iraqi territory to carry out attacks; The pro-Iranian militias continued their attacks against American bases in Syria. US forces in Syria were reportedly reinforced in preparation for the entry of the Trump administration; The Houthis claimed responsibility for two drone attacks against Israel. The IDF Spokesperson said drones were intercepted, and there were no casualties; The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a ship in the Red Sea and continued their threats to act against American aircraft carriers and warships in the Red Sea. A senior Pentagon official acknowledged that Houthi military capabilities “are getting scary.”
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (November 11 – 18 ,2024)

IDF forces continued their maneuver in south Lebanon, deepening operations into the "second line of villages." They eliminated Hezbollah terrorist operatives, located and destroyed facilities hidden in civilian sites and uncovered large quantities of weapons. The IDF continued aerial strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and other areas in Lebanon. Eight IDF soldiers were killed in the fighting; This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 170 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel, including the Greater Tel Aviv area, and IDF forces in south Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed its first attack against IDF Headquarters in Tel Aviv and showcased the new weapons used in its attacks on Israel. Two civilians were killed in Hezbollah attacks, and significant property damage was reported; Hezbollah reported that its media chief, Muhammad Afif, was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut. Reports indicated the deaths of other senior commanders (without official acknowledgment from Hezbollah), with an estimated 1,550 Hezbollah fatalities since October 8, 2023; According to reports, Hezbollah submitted its response to the United States draft proposal for a ceasefire and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 in south Lebanon, though some points still require discussion. Lebanon was preparing for the visit of United States envoy Amos Hochstein; Syria: The IDF attacked Palestinian Islamic Jihad targets in Damascus, killing two senior figures and seven terrorist operatives. The IDF continued attacking along the Syria-Lebanon border to prevent Hezbollah weapons smuggling and the infiltration of terrorist operatives. 
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Spotlight on Terrorism – October 2024

During October 2024, fighting continued in the Gaza Strip, Judea, Samaria, and south Lebanon, with attacks on Israel from pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Yemen; Lebanon: The fighting escalated with the start of the IDF maneuver against Hezbollah in south Lebanon on October 1, 2024. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 806 attacks on IDF forces and military, security and civilian targets in Israel as far as the Tel Aviv area, and deployed new weapons. Due to high number of casualties, Hezbollah stopped issuing mourning notices for senior figures and operatives, except for the announcement of the elimination of Hashem Safi al-Din, head of the Executive Council, who was to be appointed Hezbollah secretary general; The Gaza Strip: The terrorist organizations fired 28 rockets at Israeli territory, compared to four rockets in September. Targeted killings of senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist operatives continued, including Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip; Israel, Judea and Samaria: Palestinian terrorists carried out eight attacks were carried out in Israel, Judea, Samaria and East Jerusalem, compared to six in September; eight civilians and two security personnel were killed. Three of the terrorists held Israeli identification cards and two others held Jordanian citizenship. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations focused on northern Samaria. At least 27 terrorist operatives were eliminated in exchanges of fire and airstrikes, including commanders of terrorist organizations in Tulkarm, Nablus and Jenin, as well as operatives preparing to carry out attacks; Shi'ite militias: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 72 claims of responsibility for attacking 76 targets in Israeli territory, the highest number since the attacks began in November 2023, prompted by the escalation in the fighting between in Lebanon and the killing of al-Sinwar. The Saraya Awliya al-Dam militia issued 17 claims of responsibility. Most of the Iraqi militia launches were not verified, and some were intercepted. Two IDF soldiers were killed by an UAV in the Golan Heights, the first fatalities from attacks originating in Iraq. The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacking eight targets in Israel, compared to four in September.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (November 4 – 11 ,2024)

The IDF forces continued their maneuver in south Lebanon. Preparations to expand it included evacuation notices issued to additional communities. The forces neutralized Hezbollah operatives, located and destroyed terrorist facilities hidden in civilian sites, and discovered large quantities of weapons. The IDF continued airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and other locations in Lebanon. An IDF soldier who was injured in south Lebanon on October 26, 2024, died of his wounds; This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 155 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel, as well as against IDF forces in south Lebanon, using rockets, missiles (including, for the first time, an Iranian surface-to-surface Fateh-11 missile), and UAVs were launched at targets in northern and central Israel, causing significant damage to property; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah secretary general, said the organization was determined to continue a war of attrition which would compel Israel to cease fighting, leading to indirect negotiations for an agreement in south Lebanon. Hezbollah accused the Lebanese army of concealing details about an IDF operation in which a Hezbollah operative was taken during a raid in northern Lebanon; Senior Lebanese officials continued to claim a desire to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 as part of a ceasefire and announced they were preparing to deploy 5,000 additional soldiers to the south Lebanon area; The IDF confirmed carrying out strikes on facilities belonging to Hezbollah intelligence headquarters in Damascus and Hezbollah weapons storage facilities in western Syria. According to claims, Israel attempted to target the head of Hezbollah’s Golan File in an attack on Damascus.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (October 28 – November 4 ,2024)

The IDF continued its maneuvers in south Lebanon. The forces intercepted Hezbollah terrorist operatives, located and destroyed facilities concealed in civilian sites, and found large quantities of weapons. Israeli Air Force airstrikes targeted Hezbollah positions in Beirut and throughout Lebanon, and targeted strikes eliminated terrorist senior figures and field operatives. An IDF soldier wounded in south Lebanon died his injuries; Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 186 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon. Rockets, missiles and UAVs were launched at the north of Israel and further south, reaching as far as Tel Aviv and causing significant property damage; Hezbollah announced that Sheikh Na'im Qassem has been appointed the organization's new secretary general, replacing Hassan Nasrallah; The IDF eliminated several senior Hezbollah terrorist operatives who commanded sectors in south Lebanon and were responsible for firing rockets into Israeli territory. A Hezbollah naval operative was taken by the IDF in north Lebanon and removed to Israel for questioning; A senior Hezbollah-affiliated commentator claimed Israel would increase its attacks on Lebanon in the near future to completely destroy Lebanese villages near the Israeli border; Lebanese authorities reported that more than 2,968 people had been killed in Lebanon since the outbreak of hostilities on October 8, 2023; Senior Lebanese figures continued to call for a ceasefire and the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701; The IDF conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah arms warehouses in the al-Qusayr area near the Syria-Lebanon border. The IDF also detained an operative in Syrian territory who was working for Iran to gather intelligence on IDF forces near the border area.
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Sheikh Na’im Qassem, Hezbollah’s Newly – Appointed Secretary General

On October 29, 2024, Hezbollah announced that the Shura Council had appointed Sheikh Na'im Qassem as the organization's new secretary general, replacing Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut on September 27, 2024. In his first speech Qassem pledged to continue in Nasrallah's path and said Hezbollah would end the current war against Israel only on its own terms; Qassem is one of Hezbollah's founders and has served as the deputy secretary general since 1991. However, he has no military training and is considered the organization's chief ideologue, focusing on Hezbollah's political and social aspects; One of Hezbollah's most important spokesmen, in his books and public statements he has justified the "resistance" against Israel and denied its right to exist. He has also admitted that Hezbollah operates according to directives from Iran; Qassem was not considered the leading candidate to replace Hassan Nasrallah, but he was appointed by default after the elimination of Hashem Safi al-Din, the head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, who had been marked as Nasrallah's designated successor. In ITIC assessment, the objective of appointing Na'im Qassem was to represent continuity within the organization's leadership during ongoing combat with Israel, with Hezbollah likely to choose a permanent secretary general after a lasting ceasefire has been achieved. Despite Qassem’s long role in Hezbollah, his lack of military experience means Iran can be expected to oversee Hezbollah’s fighting by means of representatives from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and its Qods Force, and to influence Hezbollah's combat against Israel and decisions regarding a potential ceasefire.
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