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Iran Efforts to Circumvent the Sanctions by Smuggling Oil

Iran’s security forces, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, use the sale of oil to finance their activities and those of their proxy terrorist organizations in the Middle East; In September 2025, the UN Security Council activated the snapback mechanism, which reinstated the sanctions which had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear agreement because of Tehran’s failure to meet its international obligations following the Iran-Israel War and the strike on its nuclear facilities; In an attempt to circumvent American and international sanctions, Iran operates a complex network of intermediaries, front companies and a ghost fleet of oil tankers. At the center stands Sepehr Energy Jahan, which serves as a front company for Iran’s armed forces and has been under American sanctions since November 2023; A cyberattack on the company’s servers and a massive leak of internal documents provided evidence of how Sepehr Energy Jahan conducts its illegal activity, exposing a long list of participating front companies, oil tankers and business partners. The documents also show that China remains Iran’s primary oil consumer despite international sanctions; In ITIC assessment, until the mechanisms activating the snapback restrictions go into effect, Iran will advance covert sanction-evasion activity, within which Sepehr Energy Jahan and its CEO Majid Azami play a central role, while continuing its prohibited business relationship with governmental elements in China.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (February 16-23, 2026)

The IDF continued attacking Hezbollah terrorist targets in south Lebanon as part of enforcing the ceasefire agreement of November 2024 and to prevent the organization's renewed military build-up, possibly in preparation for attacks on the State of Israel. At least eight Hezbollah operatives from the organization's rocket array were eliminated in attacks on Hezbollah headquarters in the Beqa'a Valley; Given the growing tension between the United States and Iran, Hezbollah continued to express full support for Tehran and said a military confrontation would be met with "significant deterrence." According to reports, Iranian military officers were managing Hezbollah's preparations for a possible confrontation with Israel; Hezbollah's secretary general said the organization did not want to initiate a war, however they would not disarm since such a move served Israeli interests. He also said he was confident the organization would overcome the difficulties and claimed the right to "resist"; Hezbollah reportedly agreed in principle to a new Lebanese security agreement with Israel, according to which the organization would not attack Israel and would accept supervision of its weapons north of the Litani River, in exchange for the cessation of Israeli attacks, withdrawal of IDF forces and release of Lebanese prisoners; The Lebanese government approved the army's plan to implement the second phase of disarming Hezbollah north of the Litani River within four to eight months, without a specific timetable; Hezbollah ministers did not object; The IDF attacked a Hamas headquarters in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp in Sidon; Hamas confirmed the death of two operatives.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 11-18, 2026)

The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council met in Qatar with a Hamas delegation and discussed developments in the Palestinian arena; Iran’s ambassador to Beirut held farewell meetings with senior Lebanese officials ahead of the conclusion of his mission in Lebanon. He stated that the suspension of direct flights between Iran and Lebanon harms Lebanon; Iran’s permanent representative to the UN again criticized Israel’s ongoing military activity in southern Syria; The Iranian foreign minister discussed regional developments and bilateral relations with his Iraqi counterpart; Reports indicate closer ties between the Houthis and Iran and al-Qaeda branches in Yemen and Somalia, including the smuggling of weapons and joint training.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (February 9-16, 2026)

In south Lebanon the IDF continued attacking Hezbollah targets and eliminated two of the organization's terrorist operatives, part of enforcing the ceasefire agreement from November 2024 and preventing Hezbollah's renewed military-terrorist build-up. Several terrorist operatives from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) were eliminated in the Beqa'a Valley near the border with Syria; Hezbollah continued criticizing the Lebanese regime because of the ongoing Israeli attacks and the plan to disarm the organization. The organization's secretary general, Na'im Qassem, called on the government not to yield to Western pressure and to rely on the capabilities of the "resistance."; Lebanon's prime minister and army commander held meetings with foreign officials in preparation for the international conference to support the Lebanese security forces which will be held in Paris in early March 2026; The commander of the United States Central Command praised the Lebanese army for exposing another giant Hezbollah tunnel in south Lebanon; Hezbollah launched its campaign for the general parliamentary elections to be held this coming spring and agreed with the Amal Movement on full coordination; Hezbollah's secretary general announced that the organization would pay rent for three months for anyone whose house was damaged in the fighting with Israel, however residents in Shi'ite areas protested there was no long-term commitment and raised claims of unequal distribution of payments; The United States Treasury imposed sanctions on a Lebanese company converting Hezbollah's gold reserves into liquid assets for the organization's reconstruction.
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Spotlight on Terrorism – January 2026

During January 2026, the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip remained in force, while counterterrorism operations continued in Judea and Samaria. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah continued, despite IDF attacks on Hezbollah targets; The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that went into effect on October 10, 2025 continued. IDF forces attacked suspects who crossed the Yellow Line and eliminated terrorist operatives in response to ceasefire violations. The body of the last murdered Israeli hostage, held in the Gaza Strip since the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack and massacre, was returned, after which the transition to the second stage of the ceasefire agreement was announced. No rockets were launched into Israeli territory; Israel, Judea and Samaria: There was one terrorist attack, with no casualties. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations throughout Judea and Samaria, during which wanted individuals and terrorist operatives who attacked IDF forces or planned attacks were eliminated and weapons were located; The IDF continued attacks on Hezbollah attempts to violate the understandings of the November 27, 2024 ceasefire and on the organization's reconstruction efforts. Nineteen Hezbollah terrorist operatives were eliminated; IDF forces continued to operate in southern Syria; The Houthis did not attack Israel or ocean-going vessels, in accordance with their plan not to attack once the Gaza Strip War ended. However, they threatened to resume attacks following alleged "Israeli violations" in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, and threatened to attack Israeli targets in Somaliland in the Horn of Africa; An attack on the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan was prevented.
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The Reorganization of Hezbollah Leadership and the Resignation of Wafiq Safa

The Israel-Hezbollah War ended in November 2024, and since then Hezbollah has been reorganizing to repair the damage it suffered, including to the top leadership, and to adapt to Na'im Qassem as the new secretary general; Alongside reports of disputes and power struggles between the "pragmatic" figures led by Qassem, and the proponents of an extremist approach, senior organization figures claimed that Hezbollah had recovered and rebuilt the leadership structure, adapting it to the continued Israeli targeted killings as part of enforcement actions, and preparations for a new war; According to reports, at the beginning of February 2026, Hezbollah's leadership accepted the resignation of Wafiq Safa, who had headed the Coordination and Liaison Unit since 1987 and was considered close to Hassan Nasrallah and one of the most prominent and influential figures in the organization's top leadership. Media commentaries opined that he resigned because of his disputes with Qassem, but also noted that the move was part of the secretary general's efforts to reorganize Hezbollah's hierarchy by tightening his control over the organization's media, and political and "security" forces, while relying on figures loyal to himself and with lower media prominence, in order to reduce the risk of being targeted by Israel; In ITIC assessment, the termination of Wafiq Safa's role was intended to stabilize Hezbollah's leadership, reduce the vulnerability of senior figures and consolidate the secretary general's control after the profound shock undergone by the organization. However, concentrating authority in the secretary general's office and weakening veteran power centers may awake latent frictions and undermine internal balances. The success of the move will be partially measured by the organization's ability to preserve cohesion, prevent further intelligence leaks and redefine Hezbollah's relations with the Lebanese state without relinquishing its core principles.
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