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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (September 2 – 9 , 2024)

This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 57 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel, including civilian communities which had not been attacked since the start of hostilities on October 8, 2023. There were no casualties, damage to property was reported; Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah terrorist targets and operatives in south Lebanon. Hezbollah reported the death of one operative. The Amal Movement announced the death of three operatives; Sources close to Hezbollah said that Hezbollah continued to transfer missiles and other weapons from Syria and through tunnels between different areas within Lebanon; The Lebanese foreign minister claimed Israel had no interest in a ceasefire in Lebanon, even if a ceasefire were reached in the Gaza Strip; Syria: A scientific research center in the Hama area in central Syria and other military sites used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps to develop weapons were hit in attacks attributed to Israel. More than 16 deaths were reported, including Hezbollah terrorist operatives and operatives of the pro-Iranian militias.
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ISIS’s attitudes towards Hamas according to editorials in recent issues of ISIS’ al-Nabā’ weekly

During August 2024, the ISIS weekly al-Nabā’ published two editorials referring to Hamas in connection with the war in the Gaza Strip. ISIS rejected Hamas' methods, accusing the Sunni movement of cooperating with the Iranian-led Shi'ite axis and stating that the only way to deal with Israel and the Jews was a jihad (according to ISIS's perception); In ITIC assessment, the editorials are an ISIS attempt to exploit the war in the Gaza Strip, and especially criticism of Hamas, to recruit supporters and operatives. They also indicate ISIS's fear of Iranian expansion in the region and of its Shi'ite allies.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (August 26-September 2 , 2024)

This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 48 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel. Two civilians and a member of a security squad were injured and there was considerable property damage; Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley. Hezbollah announced the death of one of its operatives. An attempted targeted attack was carried out to eliminate a senior terrorist operative of Hamas in Lebanon; the attack failed; Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets falsely claimed that the attack on the IDF intelligence base carried out in retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr was successful. The claim has led to increasing assessment that Hezbollah is trying to avoid escalation and a comprehensive war; The UN Security Council extended UNIFIL's mandate for another year.; Syria: Three operatives of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad's military wing and a Hezbollah operative were killed in an Israeli Air Force attack on a vehicle near the border with Lebanon.
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The Organizations Assisting Hezbollah in Combat Against Israel

On October 8, 2023, following the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre carried out the previous day, Hezbollah opened a front against Israel from Lebanon "in support of the Gaza Strip." Since the beginning of the fighting, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Amal, al-Jama'ah al-Islamiyya, the Lebanese Resistance Brigades and the Syrian Social-Nationalist Party have joined Hezbollah in the fighting, to a greater or lesser degree; Unlike Hezbollah, which has so far claimed responsibility for more than 2,200 attacks, the auxiliary organizations have claimed responsibility for "only" a few dozens. Most were rocket fire targeting military and civilian sites in northern Israel, along with attempts to penetrate the border and exchanges of fire with IDF forces; Although there are ideological and religious differences between Hezbollah and most of the other organizations, they have been cooperating since the days of the Israeli presence in south Lebanon and the Second Lebanon War; In ITIC assessment, the auxiliary organizations' operations are fully coordinated with Hezbollah, and sometimes the operate in concert. As long as the fighting between Israel and Lebanon is waged within the framework of the so-called "equations," Hezbollah can be expected to limit the organizations' activities. However, in the event of further escalation and an all-out war, Hezbollah will most likely loosen the reins and give them more freedom to attack Israeli territory, IDF forces and civilians.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (August 21-28, 2024)

The new Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, spoke with a senior Hamas figure and stressed that Iran would support any agreement to end the war in the Gaza Strip that would be acceptable to the Palestinians and the “resistance”; Senior Iranian officials once again threatened to retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Tehran. However, they stressed that Iran would respond in a time and manner that would not disrupt the talks to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip; Iran praised Hezbollah's retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr in Beirut. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman described Hezbollah's action as a clear indication of a shift in the strategic balance, now working against Israel; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two drone attacks against “vital targets” in Haifa. The claims have not been verified. The pro-Iranian militias are preparing to escalate their attacks against Israel as well as against American bases in the region; The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacking two vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. A Greek oil tanker caught fire following the attack and began leaking oil. All crew members were evacuated safely; Houthi sources reported that the preparation of the target bank for the expected attack against Israel due to the attack against the port of al-Hudaydah had been completed and that the Houthis were also expected to participate in the responses of the “axis of resistance” to the killing of Haniyeh and Shukr.
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Reactions to Hezbollah’s Attack in Retaliation for the Killing of Fuad Shukr

On August 25, 2024, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a combined rocket-UAV attack on military targets in Israel in retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr, the organization's military commander, in an Israeli targeted attack in Beirut on July 30, 2024. Hezbollah claimed the attack had achieved its goals. Earlier, a hundred Israeli Air Force fighter jets carried out a pre-emptive strike against thousands of Hezbollah rocket and missile launchers in south Lebanon which were aimed at northern and central Israel; Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah secretary general, claimed 340 rockets had been fired at IDF bases in northern Israel, after which a large number of UAVs were launched deep into Israeli territory, hitting an aerial defense base and an intelligence base. He added that if the results were not "satisfactory" Hezbollah "reserved the right" to carry out further attacks; Contrary to Nasrallah's claim, the aerial defense and intelligence bases were not attacked. Israel's aerial defense forces, the Israeli Air Force and the Israeli Navy intercepted most of the rocket and UAV launches. One IDF soldier was killed and two were injured by an interceptor explosion near a Navy ship. A woman was injured by shrapnel in Acre and extensive property damage was caused; Iran and the "resistance axis" organizations, including Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, praised Hezbollah for the attack on Israel; Social media users in Lebanon and the Arab world mocked Hezbollah's attack; Hezbollah made an effort to establish the false narrative that the IDF's preemptive attack was unsuccessful, did not cause significant damage to the organization, and claimed success in hitting important targets in Israel. That was because Hezbollah wanted to justify its activities to the citizens of Lebanon, hide the extent of the damage caused to the organization by the preemptive attack, and possibly because the extent of the damage had not yet been fully calculated; In ITIC assessment , after Hezbollah finishes retaliating for the death of Fuad Shukr, its attacks on the northern border will continue according to the organization's initial use of force and "equations," which includes proactive fire near the border and reactive fire further away with varying extent, depending on the strength and nature of the IDF's proactive activity.
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