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Considerable effort by Iran to emphasize the continued support for the “resistance front” following the election of President Pezeshkian

Following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as president of Iran on July 5, 2024, there has been a marked effort by Iran to emphasize its commitment to continuing support for the “resistance front” it leads. This is apparently due to concerns among elements of the pro-Iranian axis in the region about the consequences of the election of the reformist-leaning president, especially in view of the ongoing Iranian-led regional campaign and the fear of a possible deterioration into an all-out confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. There have been several expressions of the effort to demonstrate continuity in the policy of support for the pro-Iranian axis in the region: messages of support from the president-elect to senior members of the “resistance front; Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani’s visit to the region in recent days and his meetings with senior members of the “resistance front”; Iranian officials’ comments about continuity of regional policy based on the perception that strengthening the “resistance” is one of the permanent pillars of the Islamic Republic; commentaries in the conservative Iranian media presenting Pezeshkian’s messages of support for the leaders of the pro-Iranian axis as an expression of his commitment to them.
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Hezbollah’s Policy for the Use of Force against Israel

On October 8, 2023, a day after the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah joined the fighting, opening another front on Israel's northern border. Its objective was to demonstrate solidarity with and to "support" Hamas in its war against Israel and to oblige Israel to invest combat and other resources on the northern border at the expense of fighting in the Gaza Strip; Hezbollah's policy of using force is based on its so-called "deterrent equation" of proactive attacks, attacks in response to IDF offensive activity, attacks on important Israeli targets and increasing the range of attack in response to Israeli attacks on the organization's sensitive targets; During the fighting, Hezbollah adjusted the "equation" with gradual escalation when it felt Israeli attacks had become disproportionate, usually during an escalation in the war in the Gaza Strip or following the elimination of senior Hezbollah commanders. The escalation included the use of more advanced weapons, the larger barrages of rocket launches and longer-range attacks; Meanwhile, Hezbollah is trying to preserve its "deterrent equation" even in the face of expanding the conflict should Israel initiate a ground operation in south Lebanon and to the point of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (July 1 – 8 , 2024)

This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 47 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel, up from 38 attacks the previous week. The intensity of the attacks increased in response to the killing of Muhammad Naama Nasser, commander of the Aziz Unit. In response to the IDF's eliminating another senior operative, Hezbollah attacked new Israeli targets. An IDF officer was killed and nine soldiers and civilians were injured, fires broke out and property was extensively damaged; Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley; Hezbollah revealed rare documentation of the weapons and methods used by its artillery unit; Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah said that despite criticism, the organization would not withdraw its support for the Gaza Strip. Senior Hezbollah figures said there might be a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, after which the IDF might transition to a new combat phase and escalate the conflict in south Lebanon; Nasrallah met with a Hamas delegation to discuss efforts for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and to coordinate activities against Israel. Nasrallah's deputy met with a senior German intelligence official; Internal Lebanese criticism against Hezbollah continues.
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Reactions to the targeted killing of the commander of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit

On July 3, 2024, Hezbollah announced the death of Muhammad Naama Nasser, aka Hajj Abu Naama, killed in an Israeli airstrike which targeted his vehicle in south Lebanon. another Hezbollah operative was killed in the attack. The IDF spokesperson confirmed that the Israeli Air Force had attacked Nasser, who since 2016 had commanded Hezbollah's Aziz Unit, which is responsible for the western sector in south Lebanon; The organization's announcement called Nasser the "shaheed commander," only the third time since the beginning of the current conflict that Hezbollah awarded the title to one of its operatives; Hezbollah's responded to the killing with six attacks on military targets in northern Israel over two days. Two of the attacks, the most extensive since the start of the hostilities in October 2023, were simultaneous, with upwards of 200 rockets and more than 20 UAVs launched at IDF headquarters and bases in the Golan Heights, the Upper Galilee and the Western Galilee. An IDF soldier was killed, three civilians were injured and fires broke out in various areas; Senior Hezbollah figures said killing Abu Naama would not weaken the organization and or stop the "resistance".
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (June 24 – July 1 , 2024)

This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 38 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel, similar to the previous week. Eighteen IDF soldiers were injured in the northern Golan Heights by a UAV attack; Israeli Air Force fighter jets and UAVs attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon. Nine Hezbollah operatives and a Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative were killed; Senior Hezbollah figures warned Israel not to expand the conflict in Lebanon. According to reports, Hezbollah put its border units on higher alert out of concern for Israeli military infiltration. Several countries called on their citizens to leave Lebanon for fear of escalation; According to reports, Iran provided Hezbollah with new weapons, including unmanned naval vessels; The prime minister of the transitional government in Lebanon, Najib Mikati, visited south Lebanon and said the country was already at war; Syria: A Hezbollah operative was killed in an attack on a Jihad al-Bina Association target. The attack was attributed to Israel; For the first time since 2016, the Arab League announced it did not designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.
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Spotlight on Iran (June 19-26 , 2024)

Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani visited Qatar and met with the Qatari prime minister and the head of Hamas’ political bureau. Bagheri stressed Iran’s support for Hamas and called for expanding the “resistance” to the legal, political, and diplomatic spheres; Against the backdrop of Israel’s threats to initiate an all-out campaign against Hezbollah, senior Iranian officials warned Israel against expanding the war on Hezbollah; The Houthis and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed joint responsibility for attacking ships in Haifa port and en route to Haifa. In addition, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for carrying out four drone attacks against Israel. The IDF intercepted a drone approaching Israel, and another fell into the sea near Eilat, with no casualties; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq announced their intention to assist Hezbollah in the event of a large-scale war against Israel; The Houthis continued to report attacks on civilian vessels. The American aircraft carrier Eisenhower left the Red Sea after eight months.
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