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The Rebel Attack in Syria: What does it mean for Israel?

On November 27, 2024, armed organizations opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamic-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression Operation (Rad' al-Udwan) against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwestern Syria. On November 30, 2024, Turkish-sponsored rebel organizations Operation Dawn of Liberation initiated Operation “Dawn of Liberation” (Fajr al-Hurriya) in the Aleppo region, attacking Syrian regime forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-Arab militia supported by the United States. The rebels took control of Aleppo and Hama, as well as military bases, airfields and security facilities operating under the sponsorship of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah; Iran and "resistance axis" organizations expressed support for the Syrian regime, making diplomatic efforts to calm the situation and deploying forces to Syria. Iran also accused the offensive of being an "Israeli-American conspiracy" whose objective was to weaken the "resistance axis." According to the rebels, they wanted to prevent Syrian regime forces from attacking the opposition enclave in northwestern Syria. They also noted that the "resistance axis" focus on fighting Israel and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from Syria to Lebanon were key factors in their considerations for initiating the offensive at this time; In ITIC assessment, although the rebels currently focus on fighting Assad's regime and its allies, and Islamic-jihadist takeover of advanced weaponry, including fighter jets, could pose a long-term threat to Israel. In addition, the increasing instability in Syria could trigger a new wave of displaced persons who might also move toward Israel's border. However, the rebels' offensive also poses a threat to Iran and the "resistance axis," which have used Syria as a route for transferring weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and a location from which to attack Israel. The focus of Iran and the militias on fighting the rebels, who have also taken control of strategically important "resistance axis" sites, may hinder their ability to assist Hezbollah in the reconstruction process after the fighting against Israel.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 27 – December 4, 2024)

Iran and the militias of the “axis of resistance” presented the ceasefire in Lebanon as a “great victory” for Hezbollah and the “resistance front” and as a defeat for Israel. According to them, Israel was forced to agree to the ceasefire after it failed to defeat Hezbollah and realize its goals in the war. The militias made it clear that they would continue to operate even though the ceasefire violated the principle of “unity of the arenas"; Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, who was wounded in the Hezbollah pager attack in September 2024, has returned to Beirut. The Iranian foreign minister and the IRGC commander stressed their country’s continued support for Hezbollah; The IRGC deputy commander warned that the residents of Israel should know that the events of the past year would be like a “walk in the park” for them compared to what awaits them in the future; An extensive Iranian cyber operation was uncovered that targeted hundreds of Israeli public figures and senior officials in preparation for an assassination operation; The Houthis claimed responsibility for three joint attacks with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq using drones against three targets in Israel, for the first time since July 2024. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed that three drones that did not penetrate Israeli territory had been intercepted; The militias in Iraq continued to refrain from issuing claims of responsibility for attacks against Israel. A senior member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied that understandings had been reached with the Iraqi government on the cessation of attacks against Israel; The rebel offensive in Syria: A senior Iranian officer was killed in the rebel attack in Syria. Senior Iranian officials claimed that this is an “American-Zionist plot.” Tehran focused on political-diplomatic activity, emphasizing its support for the Syrian regime and its readiness to provide any necessary assistance. It has been reported that the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have begun moving forces into Syria. 
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The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement The Lebanese Point of View

On November 27, 2024, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon went into effect, halting the fighting which broke out on October 8, 2023. According to the agreement, Israel will gradually withdraw its forces from south Lebanon over 60 days, while the Lebanese army will deploy its forces in south Lebanon and work to prevent armed organizations, primarily Hezbollah, from holding weapons or operating military facilities south of the Litani River. An American-led committee will oversee the implementation; Hezbollah is attempting to establish a narrative of victory, claiming that the fighting ended with an Israeli defeat, despite the heavy losses to the organization, including the killing of its secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and its military leadership. Na’im Qassem, the new secretary general, claimed it was a greater victory than the one in the 2006 war, adding that the organization was committed to cooperating with the Lebanese army to implement the agreement. A Hezbollah-affiliated journalist said Hezbollah would free its prisoners "by any means"; Immediately after the ceasefire, thousands of displaced persons began returning to their homes in south Lebanon, the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut, and the Beqa'a. However, the IDF and the Lebanese army warned them not to return to villages near the border, and the IDF opened fire on Lebanese attempting to return to south Lebanon. From Hezbollah's perspective, the return of the displaced to their homes in south Lebanon is another expression of victory, in contrast to Israelis, who cannot return to their homes along the border; Lebanon’s interim prime minister and other government officials said they would give the army all the necessary authority to implement the ceasefire agreement in south Lebanon. Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, said that Lebanon had overcome "Israeli aggression"; Hezbollah’s political and social media opponents expressed wonder and criticized Hezbollah's declarations of victory, given the extensive destruction in Lebanon and the blows to the organization. They also expressed hope that the agreement would lead to Hezbollah’s disarmament and criticized the "resistance axis" for its claims of supporting Lebanon while not paying a price; In our assessment, Hezbollah will continue to promote and reiterate its victory narrative and adopt a policy of brinkmanship. Its operatives will attempt to challenge the implementation of the ceasefire until the planned withdrawal of IDF forces from south Lebanon by the end of January 2025. Even after the withdrawal, the Lebanese army will most likely be unable to enforce the ceasefire, prevent Hezbollah operatives from reaching south Lebanon or fully oversee the dismantling of Hezbollah’s infrastructure south of the Litani River, due to Hezbollah’s efforts to integrate its activities into the local population and the army’s desire to avoid direct confrontation with Hezbollah.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (November 25 – December 2 ,2024)

On November 27, 2024, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon went into effect. Hezbollah declared "victory" and claimed it would cooperate with the Lebanese Army in implementing the agreement. IDF forces attacked Hezbollah operatives and facilities following violations of the ceasefire agreement. The Lebanese Army and Parliament Speaker Berri accused Israel of violating the agreement; Over the past week, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 40 attacks (some unverified) on Israeli civilian, military and security targets, all before the start of the ceasefire. According to Hezbollah, since the beginning of the conflict on October 8, 2023, at least 4,637 attacks have been carried out against Israel, including 1,666 attacks since the escalation in mid-September 2024. Hezbollah estimates that 4,000 of its operatives have been killed; The Lebanese ministry of health reported that 3,961 people had been killed between the start of the fighting until the ceasefire. The minister of economy estimated economic damage at $15-20 billion and said the reconstruction process would take about four years; The IDF continued strikes on crossings along the Syria-Lebanon border which were used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah, including after the ceasefire went into effect.
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Hamas and Hezbollah Activities in Europe: Germany as a Test Case

In November 2024, charges filed in Germany against four suspects affiliated with Hamas for operating weapons depots for Hamas in Europe and planning attacks on Israeli, Jewish and Western targets in Germany. In July 2024, the German ministry of the interior ordered the closure of the Islamic Center in Hamburg after evidence was found that for years it had served the interests of Iran and Hezbollah in the country; Both cases provide evidence of the continued presence of Hamas and Hezbollah in Europe in general and Germany in particular, despite efforts by authorities to limit or prevent their activities, especially following the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre in Israel; Germany, like other European countries, has always walked a fine line between counterterrorism, its commitment to absorbing immigrants and the protection of human rights. That was why for years if did not designate Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations or outlaw outlawing them, allowing their organizations and charities to raise funds for terrorist activities which also targeted German; In 2020, Germany ended the EU's arbitrary separation between Hezbollah’s military wing and its so-called political wing, and designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization. A similar move against Hamas was taken only in November 2023, although the movement as a whole had been designated a terrorist organization by the EU since 2014; An October 2024 report issued by Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) warned that in addition to actions by individuals motivated by antisemitism, the escalation in the Middle East also posed a threat to Jewish and Israeli targets because of operational preparations by Iranian or Hezbollah proxies or by Hamas; In ITIC assessment, German law enforcement authorities will continue efforts to prevent Hamas and Hezbollah activities as part of a growing European effort to reduce the risk from Iranian proxies. However, the threat posed by Hamas and Hezbollah can be expected to remain high for Europe in general and for Germany in particular. The arrest of Hamas operatives and the exposure of weapons depots may indicate a change in the movement’s activities in Europe, which until now avoided carrying out attacks abroad and focused on fundraising and promoting its agenda within civilian social organizations. Hezbollah may also activate its network, which in all probability still exists in Germany, to attack Israeli and Jewish targets, either as revenge for the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and senior organization members or as part of a possible Iranian response to the Israeli strike on Iran in October 2024. Hamas and Hezbollah may also exploit the radicalization of Muslim immigrant communities in Europe, as demonstrated by the attack on Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam in November 2024, to construct a support base which would help them spread their anti-Israeli and antisemitic agenda and even carry out attacks.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (November 18 – 25 ,2024)

IDF forces continued their maneuvers in south Lebanon, advancing to the "second village line" near the Litani River. The forces eliminated Hezbollah terrorist operatives, destroyed terrorist facilities concealed in civilian sites and uncovered numerous weapons. Meanwhile, the IDF attacked Hezbollah targets from the air in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut and other areas in Lebanon. Four IDF soldiers were killed in the fighting; This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 232 attacks (some unverified) on civilian, military and security targets in Israel, including the Greater Tel Aviv area and IDF forces in south Lebanon. On November 24, 2024, Hezbollah claimed a record 51 attacks in a single day. One civilian was killed in Hezbollah attacks and significant property damage was reported; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem threatened that any Israeli strike in Beirut would be answered with an attack on central Tel Aviv. He said the organization would continue attacking while working toward a ceasefire; Efforts to negotiate a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah continued. Lebanon's interim prime minister and speaker of the Lebanese Parliament met with American envoy Hochstein and reported progress in negotiations, while awaiting Israel's response. Hezbollah expressed opposition to Israel's demand for freedom of operation in Lebanon. A senior Hezbollah figure claimed Hezbollah cooperated with the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL in south Lebanon, and therefore did not oppose expanding the Lebanese Army's activities in the south; Hezbollah was publicly criticized for dragging the country into war and destruction and for its inability to protect the south, alongside calls to disarm the organization after the war; Lebanon's minister of the economy reported economic losses of between $15-20 billion. Damages to electricity infrastructure were reported to have reached $221 million; UNIFIL reported several soldiers had been injured in attacks on positions in south Lebanon. An IDF spokesperson stated the attacks were Hezbollah rocket attacks targeting Israel which misfired; According to reports, in Syria more than 100 people died in an attack attributed to Israel on pro-Iranian militia and Hezbollah sites in the city of Palmyra in central Syria.
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