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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (August 13—20, 2025)

The Iranian General Staff and the IRGC have once again warned Israel and the United States against resuming attacks on Iran. At the same time, the senior military advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran estimated that fighting between Iran and Israel could resume at any moment; Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, visited Beirut and met with senior Lebanese government officials and the secretary-general of Hezbollah. The visit took place amid growing Iranian criticism of the Lebanese government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah; Larijani expressed concern over the situation in Syria, noting that the normalization of relations between Damascus and Tehran depends on the steps that will be taken by the Syrian government; The Houthis’ military spokesman claimed responsibility for two attacks on Ben Gurion Airport using ballistic missiles. The IDF Spokesperson said the missiles were intercepted. The IDF attacked a power plant in the Sana’a area, and the Houthis threatened to retaliate against IDF Navy vessels in Eilat; Amid the interception of another arms shipment to the Houthis, the senior advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader for international affairs, meeting with the Houthi ambassador in Tehran, stressed Iran’s support for the Houthi movement’s activities against Israel and its opposition to disarming Shiite militias in the region; The secretary-general of Kata’ib Hezbollah expressed opposition to disarming the militias in the country and called for supporting them with advanced weapons.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (August 11 – 18, 2025)

The IDF attacked Hezbollah facilities above and below ground and eliminated operatives as part of its ongoing activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon which violates the ceasefire, and against the organization's efforts to rebuild its military capabilities and restore its arsenal; There were differences of opinion between the American administration and the European countries ahead of the discussion in the Security Council on extending the UNIFIL mandate in south Lebanon; American special envoy Thomas Barrack arrived in Beirut for talks, the first time since the government's decision to disarm Hezbollah. He said it was now Israel's turn to implement its own measure. Hezbollah's opponents reacted angrily to secretary general Na'im Qassem's statement that Hezbollah would not give up its weapons as long as "Israeli aggression" continued, adding that the "resistance" would battle the decision and would not agree to surrender; The secretary of Iran's supreme national security council, Ali Larijani, visited Lebanon and met with the heads of state and with Hezbollah's leadership. The president of Lebanon and the prime minister said they did not agree to Iranian intervention in the state's internal affairs; Mahmoud Abbas, chairman of the Palestinian Authority, instructed the new Palestinian ambassador in Lebanon to carry out the decisions regarding transferring Palestinian weapons and refugee camps to the authority of the Lebanese state.
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Iranian Backing for the Houthis during the Gaza Strip War: the Seizure of the Al-Sharwa as a Test Case

Iran began transferring large-scale arms shipments to the Houthis in 2009, with the amounts increasing after the Houthi takeover of Sanaa and the coalition established to act against the Houthis led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2014–2015. From Iran's perspective, backing the Houthis enables the Islamic Republic to gain a foothold in the strategic Red Sea region on Saudi Arabia's border and helps strengthen the "resistance axis" against Israel; Since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, five attempts to smuggle weapons and other military equipment to the Houthis, allegedly sent by Iran, have been foiled. The contraband items included components for ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, UAVs, radar devices, and advanced systems for communications, control and signal jamming; On June 27, 2025, Yemeni forces opposed to the Houthis seized the vessel al-Sharwa, which carried more than 750 tons of weapons and military equipment disguised as civilian goods, including hundreds of cruise missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ship missiles, advanced warheads, and hundreds of UAV engines, along with instruction manuals in Persian; Recorded confessions of the ship's seven crew members revealed the existence of a broad Iran-Houthi smuggling network which began operating in 2013 and spans countries from the Middle East to Africa. The confessions exposed the smuggling routes from Iran to the Houthis and the identities of senior Houthis involved in operating the network who are in contact with the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah; Iranian officials denied that Tehran transferred munitions to the Houthis and claimed it was American propaganda intended to divert attention from [alleged] "Zionist crimes"; In ITIC assessment the seizure of the weapons and the exposure of the Iran-Houthi smuggling network indicate Iranian efforts to back the Houthis and suggest there were many other shipments which were not intercepted and did reach the Houthis. Despite the seizure of the al-Sharwa, it can be assumed that Iran and the Houthis will continue their efforts to smuggle weapons through routes that bypass American and Allied monitoring and control measures in the Red Sea. In addition, the use of boats which do not require complex mechanical systems for unloading enables the Houthis to continue their smuggling activities despite Israel's damage to their seaports.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (August 6—13, 2025)

The Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the Israeli cabinet’s decision in favor of occupying the Gaza Strip; According to a commentary published on the Iranian Supreme Leader’s official website, the 12-day war with Israel and the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, should be seen as an expression of long-term strategic planning led by Iran to strengthen the “resistance front” and eliminate the “hegemony of the Zionist regime.”; Senior Iranian officials strongly criticized the Lebanese government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah, presenting it as an expression of an Israeli-American plan to weaken Hezbollah and the “axis of resistance.” Ali-Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, declared that this is “a dream that will not come true.”; Ali Larijani, the newly appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, visited Iraq and Lebanon amid growing internal tensions in the two countries and the growing pressure to disarm the Shiite militias; The Houthis’ military spokesman claimed responsibility for seven attacks against Israel using drones. The IDF Spokesperson announced three incidents of intercepting drones; An investigation of crew members who were on a ship carrying 750 tons of weapons from Iran to the Houthis revealed an extensive smuggling network of Iran and the Houthis in the Middle East and Africa. Anti-Houthi forces captured another ship carrying military equipment from China; It was reported that the Americans urged the Iraqi government to dismantle the militias’ drones and missiles and threatened to take military action if the Iraqi authorities did not do so.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (August 5 – 11, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah infrastructure and eliminated operatives of the organization as part of its continued activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, in violation of the understandings of the ceasefire agreement, and against the organization's efforts to renew its military capabilities and restore its arsenal. Facilities in south Lebanon for storing engineering equipment for the restoration of capabilities were attacked and three Hezbollah operatives were eliminated, as was a senior terrorist operative from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem reported that the organization had lost about 5,000 operatives in the campaign against Israel before the November 2024 ceasefire. In his assessment, Israel would not launch a new large-scale operation in Lebanon since the response would be missile fire into its territory; Six Lebanese army soldiers were killed in an explosion in a tunnel used for storing Hezbollah weapons near Tyre. A UNIFIL force uncovered a tunnel network with weapons in south Lebanon; The Lebanese government instructed the army to prepare a plan to disarm and dismantle all armed militias, including Hezbollah, by the end of the current year, and approved the principles of the document received from American special envoy Thomas Barrack. Hezbollah stated that it would ignore the government's decisions and warned that no one would be able to disarm the "resistance."; According to reports, Hezbollah's public health organization suspended hospitalization payments for the families of Hezbollah operatives, a consequence of its economic crisis
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Lebanese Government Decides to Disarm Hezbollah – Positions of Power Actors

On August 5, 2025, the Lebanese government instructed the army to prepare a plan to disarm all armed militias, including Hezbollah, by the end of the current year. Two days later, the government approved the principles submitted in a document by the American special envoy, Thomas Barrack, which included a timetable for disarmament. Ministers from Hezbollah and Amal left the meetings before they ended; The president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, and the prime minister, Nawaf Salam, noted after the government meetings that the state would implement the state's monopoly on weapons and ensure its sovereignty over its territory, despite the complexity of the task; Hezbollah made it clear that it would ignore the government's decisions and warned that no one could disarm the "resistance." The organization stated that it was not willing to discuss its weapons before state authorities took action to end the "Israeli aggression." Hezbollah and Amal were reportedly considering toppling the government in a vote of no confidence in the Lebanese Parliament; Hezbollah supporters held rallies in its strongholds across the country, while articles in Hezbollah-affiliated media accused Aoun and Salam of acting in the service of the United States and Saudi Arabia; Hezbollah's political opponents welcomed the government's decision to disarm the organization, calling it a "final decision" with which Hezbollah had to comply. They stressed that the weapons in Hezbollah's hands had only damaged Lebanon; Senior Iranian officials expressed support for Hezbollah and dismissed the decision to disarm it. In response, the Lebanese foreign ministry condemned Iran's meddling in internal Lebanese affairs, and politicians called for the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador; In ITIC assessment, the Lebanese government will continue to exert pressure on Hezbollah and try to continue dialoguing with it so that it obeys the government's decision and disarms, while the Lebanese army will continue to work with UNIFIL to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure in south Lebanon. However, Hezbollah will find it difficult to cooperate due to the combination of the uncompromising "resistance" ideology against Israel, the expectation of reconstruction funds from Iran, and the fear that its opponents will exploit its disarming to attack the Shi'ite community in Lebanon. As a result, it becomes increasingly likely that internal clashes will begin, which could deteriorate into armed confrontations and harm politicians leading the pro-disarmament line.
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