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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (July 22-29, 2026)

Iran’s Supreme Leader sent a letter to Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, reaffirming Iran’s support for Hezbollah and linking the ceasefire in Lebanon to the end of the war between Iran and the United States; An attempt by the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence to infiltrate an operational cell into Israel to carry out attacks against senior Israeli officials was foiled; The Iranian leadership used the Iraqi Prime Minister’s visit to Tehran as an opportunity to address the repercussions of his visit to the United States and the growing pressure to disarm the Shiite militias in Iraq; Iran reportedly transported IRGC officers and equipment for manufacturing missiles and drones to the Houthis in Yemen; The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks against Saudi oil tankers and energy facilities. They denied closing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, asserting that they were only imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia until it lifted the blockade on Yemen; Israeli assessments indicate that three drones intercepted near the Jordanian border were launched by the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq; The United States and Saudi Arabia struck targets belonging to the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq in response to dozens of attacks against US forces and Saudi energy infrastructure over a 72-hour period. The militias reported at least 20 fatalities.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (July 20-27, 2026)

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met with the American president at the White House and noted the importance of activating the framework agreement and "dealing with" Hezbollah's weapons while avoiding an internal Lebanese confrontation; Activating the first stage of the framework agreement began with the deployment of the Lebanese army in three pilot areas towns in south Lebanon; Prime Minister Salam visited the south Lebanese town of Zawtar al-Gharbiya, where he said the army's deployment was the first step toward the return of the residents and reconstruction. Hezbollah claimed there had been no Israeli withdrawal and an IDF shooting incident involving Lebanese army forces proved Israel still controlled south Lebanon; Hezbollah accused the IDF of a series of ceasefire violations, including airstrikes which wounded two members of Hezbollah's medical organization; Hezbollah did not respond to the alleged attack; Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei wrote a letter to Hezbollah in which he said Iran supported the complete end of "Zionist aggression" in accordance with the memorandum of understanding with the United States. The Iranian leadership was reportedly disappointed with Hezbollah's performance in the confrontation with Israel and was increasing its control over the organization's decision-making; Syrian President al-Sharaa said Syria would not intervene militarily in Lebanon to deal with Hezbollah's disarmament, adding that he supported the Lebanese state's monopoly on arms.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (July 15—22, 2026)

Senior Iranian officials congratulated Khalil al-Hayya on his election as Hamas’ new head of the political bureau and reiterated Iran’s continued support for the Palestinians. The pro-Iranian militias also welcomed his appointment; An Iranian member of parliament warned that if Syria’s president confronts Hezbollah, it will accelerate Syria’s “liberation” by the “resistance.”; The commander of the Qods Force declared that the Axis of Resistance would continue to flourish under the leadership of Mojtaba Khamenei; The advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader sharply criticized the Iraqi Prime Minister’s visit to the United States during the mourning ceremonies following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; The Houthis and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq threatened to intensify their attacks if the United States targets Iran’s energy infrastructure. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced a $10 million reward for the assassination of President Donald Trump; The Houthis declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in response to the Saudi blockade imposed on their territories in Yemen.
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Khalil al-Hayya Elected to Chair Hamas political bureau – Insights and Reactions

Khalil al-Hayya is the new chairman of Hamas after defeating Khaled Mashaal; Hamas declared that all members of the movement and its institutions stood behind al-Hayya, while Iran and the "resistance axis" praised his election as "a proof of the victory of the resistance"; Al-Hayya, a native of Gaza City, joined Hamas when it was established in 1987 and was chairman of the movement's faction in the Palestinian National Council. He had been Yahya al-Sinwar's deputy in the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip since 2017 and, following al-Sinwar's elimination, became Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip; Al-Hayya was a member of the Hamas delegations which conducted indirect negotiations with Israel over hostage deals and has headed the negotiating team since the outbreak of the war following the October 7, 2023 terrorist invasion and massacre. He also survived several attempts to kill him and four of his sons died in Israeli strikes; Al-Hayya is expected to continue al-Sinwar's ideological line, especially "resistance" and close relations with Iran. 
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (July 13-20, 2026)

The Lebanese and Israeli delegations completed another round of direct talks in Rome under American mediation and principles were formulated for implementing the first phase of the framework agreement, which will enable the deployment of the Lebanese army. Israel was accused delaying the withdrawal of IDF forces from the pilot areas to preserve leverage; Lebanese President Aoun arrived in the United States for talks with senior American administration officials to persuade them to pressure Israel to start implementing the framework agreement and to secure American support for the Lebanese army; Hezbollah and Amal criticized the framework agreement, claiming the objective of the pilot areas was to maintain an Israeli presence in south Lebanon and eventually disarm the "resistance." The Hezbollah-affiliated editor of al-Akhbar claimed a demand for Israel's withdrawal from all south Lebanon appeared in the draft framework agreement, but Lebanese President Aoun ordered it removed; IDF forces continued operations in the security zone in south Lebanon, destroying Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure and eliminating terrorists who posed a threat. Hezbollah accused Israel of "violating the ceasefire," but did not actively respond. A Lebanese army soldier was killed in an explosion in south Lebanon; the IDF reported it had been caused by an explosive device planted by Hezbollah; Hezbollah reorganized its units in south Lebanon and reduced its activity in the border villages; The Syrian interior ministry announced that the smuggling of a large quantity of advanced weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon had been prevented near the border with Iraq, including 150 explosive UAVs, and long-range and anti-tank missiles.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (July 8—15, 2026)

An Iranian diplomatic delegation visited Lebanon and met with the Speaker of Parliament. The Iranian Foreign Minister met with the UN Secretary-General’s Special Coordinator for Lebanon; It was reported that a message conveyed by the Iranian leadership to the Hezbollah leadership and the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament stated that Tehran had made it clear to the mediators in the negotiations with the United States that ending the war in Lebanon is its highest priority; Iranian commentators expressed strong doubts about the prospects of disarming Hezbollah; It was reported that the Iranian leadership had acceded to requests by the Hamas leadership to link the end of the war in the Gaza Strip to the negotiations with the United States and to continue supporting the reconstruction of the movement’s military wing; The Iraqi Prime Minister met with President Trump at the White House and stressed that he is committed to the disarmament of the militias once the US military presence in Iraq concludes in late September 2026. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq condemned the visit and stressed that it would not surrender its weapons; The major pro-Iranian militias in Iraq threatened to resume attacks against US targets amid the escalation between the United States and Iran.
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