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Hezbollah

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (September 16-23, 2024)

This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 77 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel, including the first attacks on the Jezreel Valley, the Lower Galilee and the suburbs around Haifa. An attempt by a Hezbollah terrorist squad to plant an explosive device bomb near an IDF post was foiled. Two IDF soldiers were killed in the attacks and five civilians were injured; substantial property damage was reported; Israeli Air Force aircraft expanded their attacks on Hezbollah terrorist targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley, including preventive strikes to prevent rockets from being fired and missiles from being launched into Israeli territory. In an attack in Beirut, Ibrahim Aqil, head of Hezbollah's operations and commander of the Radwan Force, was killed, along with the top commanders of the Radwan Force. Hezbollah announced that 65 operatives and commanders had been killed during the past week; The IDF warned the residents of south Lebanon to evacuate their homes in preparation for attacks on Hezbollah weapons hidden in civilian sites. As a result, there was a mass departure of residents from south Lebanon to the north of the country; Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, spoke after the explosions of Hezbollah operatives' hand-held communications devices and accused Israel of committing "massacres" and "declaring war." He warned that retaliation would be "an eye for an eye."; Najib Mikati, prime minister of the Lebanese interim government, warned of a "descent into the unknown" and called for the implementation of the UN Security Council resolutions to calm the situation. Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, accused Israel of trying to transform south Lebanon into "scorched earth."
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Reactions to the Elimination of Ibrahim Aqil and the Top Command of the Radwan Force

On September 20, 2024, the IDF eliminated Ibrahim Aqil, the head of Hezbollah's military operations and commander of the elite Radwan Force, in an airstrike in the southern suburb of Beirut. The attack killed at least 14 other Radwan Force commanders, including Ahmed Mahmoud Wahhabi, the head of military training and part of the Force's top command. According to published information, they were holding a meeting to plan a ground attack on Israeli territory. According to the Lebanese ministry of health at least 50 people were killed in the attack; Hezbollah confirmed the death of Aqil, aka "the great jihad commander," the second senior Hezbollah official granted the title since the current conflict with Israel began in October 2023; Senior Hezbollah figures threatened "an appropriate retaliation" and added that Hezbollah would not stop its "support" for the Gaza Strip. Since Aqil's death Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for more than 20 attacks on targets in Israel, including expanding range of its attacks to the Jezreel Valley and the Haifa area. According to Hezbollah, the attacks were not retaliation for the death of Aqil; Iran and the "resistance axis" organizations condemned the Israeli attack on Beirut; In ITIC assessment, the attack on Aqil and the Radwan Force's top command, in addition to the exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, surprised Hezbollah and are regarded as Israel's deviation from the [Hezbollah-dictated] "rules of conflict" in place since October 8, 2023, and a crossing of red lines. In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah can be expected to react strongly, both by further extending the range of its attacks on Israeli territory and by the use of new weapons, and possibly even an attack on a sensitive military target. However, Hezbollah still does not want a total war, especially in view of the significant damage to its most senior military figures, and will try to make Israel return to the "equations" it has been trying to dictate since the beginning of the conflict, while continuing its "support" for the Gaza Strip. Nasrallah will probably also consider Iran's position regarding the nature and strength of the response, partly because at this time Iran also does not want a regional war which could also include a direct confrontation with Israel and the United States. In ITIC assessment, the other "resistance axis" organizations can be expected to increase their attempts to attack Israel in support of Hezbollah.
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Hezbollah Communications Devices Explode

On September 17, 2024, thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah operatives for internal communications exploded, killing 12 people and injuring thousands in Lebanon and Syria. The next day, Hezbollah walkie-talkies exploded throughout Lebanon and according to reports, at least 25 people were killed and hundreds were injured; Hezbollah announced that at least 38 operatives were killed within 48 hours, most of them by the explosions. The organization claimed Israel was responsible and threatened a harsh response, even though senior figures continued to refrain from calling for a total war. A commentator affiliated with Hezbollah warned that Israel had launched a "war of extermination" and a "battle without borders" by attacking "civilians"; The Iranian ambassador to Beirut was injured in a pager explosion and was taken to Tehran for medical treatment. Senior officials in Iran accused Israel of a "terrorist attack" and said that they reserved the right to respond to the attack on the ambassador. Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other "resistance axis" organizations condemned Israel and expressed support for Hezbollah and Lebanon. In ITIC assessment, the extensive damage to Hezbollah's communication systems will force the organization to rethink Israel's internal security and intelligence capabilities. In an attempt to understand how Israel successfully penetrated its intelligence and to what extent, the organization will investigate, and will decide how to respond. In the short term, Hezbollah's ability to deploy its forces at the tactical and operational level could be damaged. However, Hezbollah still states that it does not intend to start a total war against Israel. In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah can be expected to react strongly, both to preserve the "balance of deterrence" it has achieved so far with Israel, and given the harm to civilians, to preserve its image as "Lebanon's defender."
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis

The Iranian Supreme Leader emphasized that support for “Palestine” was the duty of all Muslims. The Iranian foreign minister affirmed that Iran would continue to support the “resistance front"; Iran strongly condemned the detonation of Hezbollah operatives’ pagers in Lebanon and offered assistance to the wounded. The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon has also been wounded in the series of explosions.; Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian paid an official three-day visit to Iraq, during which he discussed expanding cooperation between the two countries, especially in the economic sphere; Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani met in Baghdad with commanders of the pro-Iranian Shiite militias; A ballistic missile launched by the Houthis exploded in the air in central Israel, causing no casualties. The Houthis claimed that it was a new hypersonic missile but stressed that it was part of the “fifth escalation phase” of activity against Israel and not a response to the Israeli attack on the port of al-Hudaydah; The Houthis announced the downing of another American UAV. A US official denied a senior Houthi official’s claim that the US would recognize the Houthi regime if the attacks against Israel stopped; The Israeli Air Force intercepted a UAV launched from Iraq. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two additional attacks against targets in Israel. The claims have not been verified. A pro-Iranian militia leader said they were preparing to expand their activity against Israel in coordination with the “axis of resistance.”
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (September 9 – 16 , 2024)

This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 65 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel, including towns and villages which were attacked for the first time since the beginning of hostilities on October 8, 2023. Three IDF soldiers were injured, one of them in the reserves, and property damage was reported. The military wings Hamas and al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya also claimed responsibility for attacks on Israeli territories; Israeli Air Force aircrafts attacked Hezbollah terrorist targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley. Hezbollah announced that six of its operatives were killed during the past week; According to the UN, more than 113,000 people have been displaced from their homes in South Lebanon and 589 have been killed since the beginning of the fighting. The Lebanese media published figures for aid worth tens of millions of dollars given by Hezbollah to the families who remained in their homes in south Lebanon and to the displaced families; Hezbollah continued to promote the false claims that its retaliation for the elimination of Fuad Shakr killed more than 20 people at an IDF base, and linked "the killing" to the resignation of the commander of Unit 8200; Syria: A terrorist operative in the Hezbollah organization in the Golan Heights was killed in an Israeli attack. Syria and Iran denied reports that Israeli special forces raided a military facility for the production of weapons in Masyaf in western Syria.
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The Houthis in Yemen threaten Israel with ground attacks

Since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023, the participation of the Houthis in the "resistance axis" has been limited to direct UAV and missile attacks on Israeli targets, especially in the south of the country. The most significant was the Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv on July 19, 2024, to which Israel responded with an Israeli Air Force attack on the Yemeni port in the city of al-Hudaydah the following day; In recent weeks, the Houthis have increased their overt threats to attack Israel, including ground attacks. They also held military exercises simulating infiltrating through tunnels, taking control of Israeli military bases and abducting soldiers. According to reports, Houthi fighters have arrived in Syria and are overseen by the pro-Iranian militias; In ITIC assessment, the Houthis do in fact aspire to carry out a ground attack, partially as a response to Israel's attack on al-Hudaydah. Collaboration with Iran and the other "resistance axis" partners, led by the militias in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon, enables the Houthis to overcome the great geographical distance between Yemen and Israel and move fighters close to the Israeli border for a limited direct ground attack on Israeli territory. They may try to infiltrate an Israeli civilian community or a military base, as they did in the simulations in Yemen, or participate actively as a Hezbollah auxiliary force should there be significant escalation in the fighting in the north. They would also continue their attempts to attack targets in Israeli territory with missiles or drones, as they have done since the beginning of the war.
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