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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) January 22 – 29 , 2025

The new Syrian security forces continued searching the country for senior officials of the Assad regime and weapon stockpiles. The forces intercepted a truck carrying weapons en route to Hezbollah in Lebanon; Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Julani), de facto Syrian leader, held meetings in Damascus with visiting leaders and diplomats, including the Palestinian Authority prime minister and the Russian president's special envoy to the Middle East. The Syrian foreign minister welcomed the EU decision to gradually lift sanctions; Disagreements continue between Damascus and the leadership of Kurdish organizations regarding the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces into the new Syrian army. The Syrian defense minister warned that the army would be prepared to use force if the issue were not resolved peacefully; IDF preparations for a prolonged presence on the Syrian Hermon and the buffer zone led Ahmed al-Sharaa to warn Israel that if it did not withdraw its forces, Syria would "apply pressure." Residents in the Quneitra area held demonstrations to protest the presence of Israeli forces and called for UN intervention. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (January 22-29, 2025)

“Western intelligence sources” revealed that Iranian diplomats are using foreign airlines to transfer money to Hezbollah. Iran’s representative to the UN rejected Israel’s claim that Iran is transferring advanced weapons to Lebanon; Iran condemned the attack on Lebanese civilians who were trying to return to their villages in southern Lebanon. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman called on the Security Council to take steps to end Israel’s military presence in southern Lebanon; Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon met for the first time with Lebanon’s new president, Joseph Aoun. No details were provided about the meeting; Senior Iranian officials continued to present the developments in the Palestinian arena as an expression of “Israel’s defeat.” The Supreme Leader of Iran declared that the Gaza Strip had brought Israel to its knees, while the speaker of the Majles asserted that the return of displaced Palestinians to the northern Gaza Strip demonstrates that Hamas remains active and resilient; The Iranian foreign minister expressed concern over reports of attacks on members of the Alawite and Shiite religious minorities since the fall of the regime in Syria; The Houthis released the crew of the Galaxy Leader, who had been detained since November 2023, “at the request of Hamas.” They made it clear that they would continue to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and would respond to any Israeli violations; The Houthi regime condemned the Trump administration for its decision to return the movement to the list of terrorist organizations, accusing it of an attempt to prevent Yemen from helping the Palestinians.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon and (January 20 – 27 , 2025)

January 26, 2025, marked the end of the 60 days specified in the ceasefire agreement for the IDF's withdrawal from south Lebanon. However, Israel announced it would not withdraw because the Lebanese army had still not finished deploying in the south of the country. On January 26, 2025, thousands of local residents began returning to towns and villages in south Lebanon, waving Hezbollah flags and escorted by Lebanese army forces. IDF forces fired at rioters and the Lebanese ministry of health reported 24 fatalities, including a soldier. The United States announced that the ceasefire agreement would be extended until February 18, 2025, and that negotiations would begin regarding the release of Lebanese detainees held by IDF forces. Lebanon's interim prime minister approved the extension of the agreement; Senior Hezbollah figures praised the residents of south Lebanon for returning to their communities, calling it "popular resistance" and the implementation of the "Army, People, Resistance" slogan. The organization also criticized the Lebanese authorities and the international community for not compelling Israel to complete the withdrawal; This past week IDF forces continued to take action against Hezbollah ceasefire violations, destroying weapons and terrorist facilities belonging to the organization in south Lebanon. The Lebanese army continued its gradual deployment into the areas evacuated by the IDF; According to reports, the head of Lebanese army intelligence in the south and other army officers transferred classified information to Hezbollah, enabling the organization to hide weapons. The Lebanese army denied the allegations; Hezbollah has paid $400 million to Lebanese residents for shelter and reconstruction since the start of the ceasefire. Reportedly, the organization is formulating a new plan for its media activities after the war; Syrian security authorities seized a shipment of weapons en route to Hezbollah. Iranian diplomats reportedly smuggle money to Hezbollah on foreign airlines flying to Beirut; Nawaf Salam, designated Lebanese prime minister, continued efforts to form a new government. He denied having promised the finance portfolio to Hezbollah. 
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Iran in the Face of Regional Developments: Challenges, Responses and Possible Courses of Action

The dramatic developments in the Middle East in recent months, mainly Israel’s military achievements vis-à-vis Hamas and Hezbollah and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, have significantly weakened Iran and the “resistance front” that it leads and pose significant challenges to it, first and foremost the damage to Tehran’s ability to influence the region. These challenges join a series of other challenges facing the Islamic Republic, mainly the deepening of the economic crisis, the consequences of the Israeli attack at the end of October 2024, and the return of Donald Trump to the White House; In light of the recent regional developments, Iran is trying to downplay the seriousness of the situation, emphasizing its capabilities and the capabilities of the “resistance front” to overcome the challenges and continue to act in light of the new circumstances, thanks in part to the ability of Iran’s regional proxies to produce weapons themselves, Highlighting Israel’s failure to realize its goals in the war, both in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, and presenting the ceasefire in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip as a victory for the “resistance front” and a strategic failure for Israel, Emphasizing Iran’s continued support for the “resistance,” as it is a central pillar of the Islamic Republic’s policy; In the ITIC’s assessment, Iran has no intention of backing down from its efforts to maintain its regional status and continue its support for the “resistance front.” At the same time, it appears that Iran will examine how to make the necessary adjustments and find possible solutions to the limitations and constraints it faces in the main arenas in which it operates.
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) January 15 – 22, 2025

According to Murhaf Abu Qasra, the Syrian defense minister, the armed factions were willing to join the new military structure. He said the Kurdish militia of the Syrian Democratic Forces would not be able to maintain an independent identity in the new army, while the militia commander said they had not yet decided if they were going to hand over their weapons; Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), de facto leader of Syria, and Asaad al-Shibani, Syrian foreign minister, met in Damascus with diplomats. Al-Sharaa also congratulated President Trump and expressed confidence he would help bring peace to the Middle East; The new regime's security forces continued operations to locate senior figures from the Assad regime still inside Syria, focusing on the Daraa province in the south. The forces thwarted an attempt to smuggle weapons into Lebanon, including Iranian UAVs; According to reports, three people were killed in an Israeli airstrike on a convoy of the Syrian military operations directorate in the al-Quneitra area. Syrian officials called for the withdrawal of IDF forces and claimed Syria was no longer a threat to Israel. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (January 15 – 22, 2025)

Iran presented the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas as an Israeli defeat and a victory for Hamas and the “Palestinian resistance.” According to senior Iranian officials, Israel was forced to agree to the ceasefire after failing to realize its goals in the war even after 15 months. The Houthis and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq also congratulated Hamas on the “victory.” The Iranian foreign minister stressed Iran’s continued support for the “resistance"; The Houthis claimed responsibility for six attacks against Israel using ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. The IDF Spokesperson reported the interception of two ballistic missiles. Senior Houthi officials announced a halt to direct attacks against Israel due to the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip but threatened to resume operations in the event of Israeli “violations.” However, they declared that attacks in the Red Sea against vessels connected to Israel would continue; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq announced the suspension of their military operations against Israel due to the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. In practice, they stopped the attacks as early as November 24, 2024; The Syrian authorities have instructed foreign airlines flying to the country not to allow the entry of Iranian citizens; The Syrian security and intelligence services announced the seizure of weapons on the Syrian-Lebanese border, including Iranian-made drones. Experience indicates that Iran continues to make efforts to transfer weapons to Lebanon even after the collapse of the Assad regime. 
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