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Hezbollah

Lebanese Positions on Disarming Hezbollah

The Lebanese leadership expressed a desire to conduct a dialogue with Hezbollah to ensure the organization’s disarmament in order to reduce the risk of bloodshed. The Lebanese army took control of a significant portion of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure south of the Litani River, while the United States increased its pressure on Lebanon to accelerate the dismantling Hezbollah’s military capabilities, threatening to allow Israel itself to take action against the organization; Hezbollah absolutely refused to give up the “resistance” against Israel, but gradually mitigated its position, claiming it was prepared to engage in dialogue with the Lebanese government to formulate a national defense strategy which would allow Hezbollah to retain its "military capabilities" alongside the country’s security forces. However, even within the Shi'ite community, voices were heard emphasizing the need to relinquish the weapons, given the blows Hezbollah had suffered during the war against Israel; As of now, the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament is prominent in Lebanon’s public discourse, and for the first time since the organization’s founding more than four decades ago, there is an understanding that the matter is critical for the country’s future and its chances of recovery after the war with Israel. Although President Aoun and senior officials are currently proceeding cautiously, international pressure, especially from the United States and the Gulf States, is growing for Lebanon to complete Hezbollah’s disarmament quickly. Furthermore, conditioning the much-needed economic aid for Lebanon’s recovery on enforcing the state’s monopoly on weapons could place Lebanon’s political and military leadership on a direct collision course with Hezbollah and its supporters and increase internal security tensions.
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Disarming the Palestinian Factions in Lebanon

The Palestinian factions in Lebanon have maintained an armed presence in the refugee camps for decades without interference from the authorities. In recent years, the Hamas branch in Lebanon has become the most powerful military force among the factions, and its active involvement in fighting alongside Hezbollah in the latest conflict drew significant public and political attention; The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in November 2024, which ended the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, led the Lebanese authorities to declare their willingness to institute a state monopoly of weapons throughout the country. The declaration was reinforced under the new president, Joseph Aoun, and the new government headed by Nawaf Salam; The rocket fire attacking northern Israel at the end of March 2025 and the exposure of Hamas operatives as responsible led the authorities to warn the movement not to threaten national security. Following the warning, in an unprecedented move Hamas handed the Lebanese army suspects involved in the rocket fire; At this stage, it is unclear whether Lebanese security forces intend to act militarily to collect the weapons in the country’s Palestinian refugee camps or to simply reorganize relations and increase coordination over weapons use. In ITIC assessment, a successful assertion of state authority over the Palestinian factions could set a precedent for a similar move against Hezbollah, which is considered a more complex and sensitive challenge for Lebanon. As a result, Hezbollah may attempt to prevent a forceful move by the Lebanese army against the Palestinian factions but may also assist in resolving the issue through dialogue.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (April 23—May 7, 2025)

The Supreme Leader of Iran praised the Palestinian “resistance” in the Gaza Strip and declared that the unity of the Islamic nation is essential to prevent the events taking place in the Gaza Strip and Yemen; The Iranian embassy in Beirut condemned the IDF attack in the Dahiyeh of Beirut and stressed that Israel’s attacks would not prevent the Lebanese people from continuing to resist; Iran strongly condemned the continued Israeli attacks in Syria and called on the international community and the countries of the region to act to stop them. Meanwhile, the Iranian media continued to take advantage of the Israeli attacks in Syria to criticize the Syrian president for his “indifference” amid the IDF’s continued activity in his country; Iran has sent a message to the pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, calling on them to maintain political unity ahead of the parliamentary elections expected in November 2025; The Houthis claimed responsibility for 12 attacks against Israel using ballistic missiles and drones. Most of the missiles and aircraft were intercepted, but one ballistic missile exploded in the Ben Gurion Airport area, injuring five people. Israel responded with two airstrikes against the port of Al-Hudaydah, the international airport in Sana’a, and other targets. Iran and the members of the “axis of resistance” praised the Houthis for the attack on Ben Gurion Airport, while Tehran again denied any connection to the Houthis’ activity against Israel; US President Trump announced the cessation of US attacks against the Houthis, claiming that they had agreed to halt their attacks against naval vessels. The Houthis have made it clear that they will continue their attacks against Israel until the “aggression” against the Gaza Strip stops.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (April 28 – May 5, 2025)

IDF forces continued operating to counter the presence of Hezbollah in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire and to thwart the organization’s renewed attempts to strengthen its military capabilities. Several Hezbollah terrorist operatives were eliminated; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem claimed that Israel had violated the ceasefire more than 3,000 times. He accused the Lebanese state institutions of failing to exert sufficient diplomatic pressure to stop the attacks but did not say Hezbollah would take action against Israel; Members of the Lebanese leadership met with the American general who headed the ceasefire monitoring committee and with his successor, noting the need to pressure Israel to stop its attacks and withdraw from the five points it holds in south Lebanon to enable the Lebanese army to complete its deployment; Senior Hezbollah figures said a dialogue on a national defense strategy could take place only after the completion of the Israeli withdrawal but continued to oppose disarming Hezbollah. Lebanese President Aoun noted that the decision regarding the state's monopoly over weapons was irreversible. The Lebanese army claimed to have dismantled more than 90% of Hezbollah’s infrastructure south of the Litani River; The Lebanese Supreme Defense Council warned Hamas against taking actions which would undermine the country's sovereignty and national security. Hamas handed over two operatives involved in firing rockets at northern Israel at the end of March 2025; For the first time since 2016, municipal elections are being held in Lebanon: candidates from Hezbollah and Amal's list won in all councils in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia, the Shi'ite suburb of southern Beirut.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (April 21 – 28, 2025)

IDF forces continued operations against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire and against the organization's renewed attempts at a military buildup. The IDF eliminated Hezbollah operatives and a senior operative affiliated with Hamas, and a warehouse for precision missiles in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in southern Beirut was attacked; Hezbollah expressed its dissatisfaction with the functioning of the Lebanese authorities in light of the continuing Israeli attacks and called for a reassessment of the ceasefire monitoring committee; Lebanese government officials claimed the Israeli "violations" were hindering the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south and said Lebanon remained committed to the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701; The Lebanese army seized Hezbollah military facilities in the south of the country and military intelligence identified key persons, suspected of being Hamas terrorist operatives, of responsibility for the rocket fire targeting Israel; Regarding Hezbollah's disarmament, senior figures said a dialogue on the future of the weapons could only take place after Israel withdrew from Lebanon. Lebanese President Aoun reiterated that the State of Lebanon would have sole authority over weapons. A source in the Lebanese government claimed the armed Palestinian “factions” would also be disarmed; A senior Hezbollah figure admitted that the organization had undergone a "massive earthquake" in the war against Israel but noted it was not certain that the conclusions of its internal investigation of the war would be made public.
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Operation Guardian of the Walls as a watershed moment in Hamas’ strategy for the “destruction of Israel,” as reflected in documents found by the IDF in the Gaza Strip

Israel considered Operation Guardian of the Walls (May 2021) a major success which severely damaged Hamas and strengthened Israeli deterrence. Statements by senior Israeli officials, including the prime minister, the defense minister and senior IDF officers, emphasized the blow to Hamas’ military capabilities, primarily the tunnel system (the so-called “tunnel system”) and claimed Hamas was unlikely to act against Israel for years; Hamas, however, held an opposing view and considered the operation, which it referred to as Operation Sword of Jerusalem, a significant achievement for the movement and a defeat for Israel. That was reflected in public statements by Hamas leaders in the days following the ceasefire, in which they declared a strategic victory and downplayed the extent of damage to their military capabilities. Leaders of the “resistance axis” also praised Hamas and its military wing; The sense of achievement also appeared in captured Hamas documents found during the Gaza Strip War. They included transcripts of conversations and written correspondence between Hamas leaders and senior figures in Iran and Hezbollah; Hamas’ perception of success in the operation bolstered the confidence of Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, who moved forward with military plans to implement the vision of “destroying Israel,” in coordination with other members of the “resistance axis,” even if Iran and Hezbollah were not actively involved; The documents reinforce the assessment, also evident from public statements, that Hamas regarded Operation Guardian of the Walls as a watershed moment in its future strategic plan for the conflict with Israel. Despite the proposal to promote a political move toward a temporary cessation of hostilities, the Hamas leadership under al-Sinwar focused on practical preparations for a major military operation, culminating in the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre, a step in realizing the movement’s long-term vision of “destroying Israel.”
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