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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (June 11—18, 2025)

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a preemptive attack in Iran, which includes attacks against dozens of military and security targets, government targets, and nuclear facilities. Senior Iranian regime officials accuse Israel of committing “crimes” and continue to threaten that Israel will continue to pay a “heavy price” for its ongoing attacks; Before the Israeli attack, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with the deputy secretary-general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), Jamil Mazhar, and emphasized Iran’s support for the Palestinian people; The commander of the IRGC’s Qods Force, Esmail Qaani, declared that despite the efforts to weaken Hezbollah and the other “resistance forces,” they continue to stand firm, the “resistance” would continue, and the final victory would belong to the believers; The Houthis claimed they had carried out attacks against targets in Israel in coordination with the Iranians and threatened to act against any country that attacks Iran. The IDF Spokesperson reported one missile launched from Yemen that fell in the Hebron area, injuring three people, and another missile that disintegrated on its way to Israel; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq warned they would act against American interests if the United States joined the fight against Iran alongside Israel.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 9 – 16, 2025)

IDF forces continued counteracting Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire agreement and against the organization's renewed efforts to rebuild its military capabilities; Senior Hezbollah figures and Lebanese government officials again called on the international community to exert pressure on Israel to end its "violations" of the ceasefire. A senior Hezbollah figure claimed they did not expect Lebanon to launch a military conflict due to its weakness vis-à-vis Israel; The Lebanese army searched a building in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in coordination with the ceasefire supervision committee after having been given information by Israel about the presence of weapons; A disagreement was reported within the Lebanese leadership regarding the toughening of UNIFIL's mandate, which is expected to end in August 2025. Hezbollah claimed they supported extending the mandate; The Lebanese leadership condemned an incident in which a resident in south Lebanon was filmed hitting a UNIFIL soldier. The UNIFIL spokesman stressed the agency's right to conduct patrols without an escort of Lebanese army forces; The Lebanese prime minister said the country had regained control of Beirut's international airport and was waging a fight against smuggling. The American ambassador to Lebanon has reportedly expressed dissatisfaction with the authorities' handling of the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament; Disarming the Palestinian refugee camps has been postponed because of the Israel-Iran War and Internal-Palestinian disputes.
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“Resistance Axis” Reactions to the Israel-Iran Military Conflict

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a preemptive attack in Iran on dozens of military and security targets and sites of the nuclear program across Iran. More than 20 senior figures in the security leadership, military commanders and nuclear scientists were eliminated, including the commander of the armed forces and the commander of the Revolutionary Guards; Iran confirmed the deaths of the senior officials. Regime officials threatened that "the Zionist regime" would pay a "steep price," and the Revolutionary Guards launched Operation True Promise 3, attacking Israel with UAVs and ballistic missiles; Members of the "resistance axis" condemned Israel, accused it of "crossing red lines," and expressed solidarity with Iran;  According to reports, the Lebanese government conveyed a message to Hezbollah that it alone decided whether or not to go to war. A senior Hezbollah figure said the organization was satisfied with issuing a condemnation and did not plan to respond militarily against Israel; The Houthis claimed that they had attacked targets in Israel in coordination with the Iranians; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq condemned Israel for violating Iraqi airspace during the attacks on Iran and threatened to take action against American interests if the United States joined the fighting alongside Israel. It was reported that the Iraqi prime minister conveyed messages to the militia leaders that he would act against them if they intervened in the war; Iran built the military capabilities of the Hezbollah-led "resistance axis" as a deterrent against Israel and as part of its response capabilities in the event of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The responses of the organizations were limited to condemnations, indicating the "resistance axis" had been weakened by Israel during the fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon since October 7, 2023. In ITIC assessment, in light of the strategic changes in the Middle East, Hezbollah is currently restrained and the Lebanese government has, for now, successfully imposed its will on the organization. The Shi'ite militias in Iraq are also reluctant to intervene because of pressure from the Iraqi government. Therefore, at this stage, the "resistance axis" organizations, except the Houthis, will most likely not join the fighting. However, active American involvement alongside Israel could lead to an active response by the "resistance axis," especially in Iraq.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (June 4-11, 2025)

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei reiterated his call for cooperation among Islamic countries in support of the Palestinians and resistance to Israel. In a statement on the occasion of the pilgrimage to Mecca, Khamenei called for taking advantage of the growing hostility in the world toward Israel to help the Palestinian people; Iran and the Houthis condemned the American veto of the Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, as well as the IDF’s takeover of the ship Madleen, which was en route to Gaza' A delegation headed by the deputy secretary-general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) visited Tehran and met with the Iranian foreign minister, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and the IRGC commander. They all stressed Iran’s support for the Palestinians and the “Palestinian resistance.”; As part of his visit to Beirut, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem. The minister noted that Tehran supports Hezbollah but stressed that the issue of disarming the organization is an internal Lebanese matter that should be regulated between the Lebanese government and the various forces in the country; Iran condemned the Israeli attacks on the Dahiyeh in Beirut and the Israeli attacks in Syria and called for international intervention to stop them; The Houthis claimed responsibility for three attacks using ballistic missiles and drones against Ben Gurion Airport. The IDF Spokesperson reported two cases of intercepting a ballistic missile launched from Yemen and the interception of a drone. The Israeli Navy carried out its first attack against the port of al-Hudaydah; It was reported that the Houthis are planning to attack Israel with new weapons, including missiles with “cluster warheads.”; The commander of the US Central Command said that IRGC operatives are still in Yemen and are helping the Houthis assemble weapons. Sources reported that the Houthis are also being assisted by China for their weapons buildup; The leader of a pro-Iranian Iraqi militia condemned the “silence of the world” in the face of “the crimes of Israel and the United States” and threatened that “patience has run out.”
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 4–9, 2025)

IDF forces continued counteracting Hezbollah’s presence in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire agreement and against the organization’s renewed efforts to rebuild it military capabilities. Structures in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut used by Hezbollah’s aerial unit to produce thousands of UAVs were attacked; Hezbollah denied Israel’s accusations and called on the Lebanese government to increase diplomatic pressure against "the violations and aggression." Senior figures in the Lebanese government also condemned the attacks and accused Israel of "violating" the country’s sovereignty and the ceasefire agreement; The prime minister of Lebanon stated that the Lebanese army had dismantled more than 500 "military sites" south of the Litani River. The Lebanese army threatened to stop cooperating with the ceasefire monitoring committee because of continued Israeli attacks, but conducted searches in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in coordination with the committee out of fear of another attack; The UN secretary general appointed a new UNIFIL commander. Lebanon will request the renewal of the UNIFIL mandate although Israel and the United States reportedly want to end it; Hezbollah praised its parliamentary faction’s meeting with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and claimed willingness to reach understandings. However, the organization emphasized that all disputed issues with Israel had to be resolved before there could be any discussion of its disarming; According to reports, a Palestinian delegation met with Lebanese army officers and stated a commitment to disarming in the Palestinian refugee camps, but admitted that they had rushed to set the timetable before agreeing on an organized mechanism for collecting the weapons.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (May 28—June 4, 2025)

Iran’s Supreme Leader said that “the crimes of the Zionist regime in the Gaza Strip” arouse astonishment and warned that any Islamic government that supports the “Zionist regime” will be left with a mark of shame; The Iranian Supreme Leader’s advisor for international affairs met in Tehran with representatives of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and declared that his country is committed to continuing to support “the struggle of the Palestinian people until the liberation of Jerusalem.” The Iranian foreign minister visited Egypt and stressed the need to stop the Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip; The Iranian foreign minister met with senior Lebanese government officials in Beirut and stressed that his country respects Lebanon’s internal affairs and is not involved in them; The Houthis claimed responsibility for four ballistic missile attacks on Ben Gurion Airport and three drone attacks. The IDF Spokesperson reported four incidents of intercepting a ballistic missile launched from Yemen. The Houthis also warned companies operating within the “Zionist entity” to leave immediately. The Iranian foreign minister expressed support for continued Houthi activity against Israel but emphasized that they do not operate according to Tehran’s instructions. 
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