Hezbollah

Challenges Faced by Hezbolla after the November 27, 2024 ceasfire

 The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement of November 27, 2024, which ended the fighting that began on October 8, 2023, placed Hezbollah at a crossroads, the most significant since the organization's founding in 1982. Its situation was the result of the loss of its top leadership, primarily secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor Hashem Safi al-Din, as well as commanders and thousands of operatives. In addition, key military-terrorist capabilities and infrastructure were destroyed and the organization's status inside Lebanon was damaged.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (May 12 – 19, 2025)

IDF forces continued operations targeting Hezbollah’s presence in south Lebanon, which is in violation of the ceasefire, preventing the organization from rebuilding its military capabilities. The forces eliminated Hezbollah terrorist field commanders and operatives in south Lebanon; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem called on Lebanese state institutions to increase pressure on Israel against its "ongoing aggression and violations." He also admitted that Iran had served the "resistance” and that they had benefited from it in every respect; Lebanese leaders claimed that American-led international pressure should compel Israel to withdraw from south Lebanon and halt its attacks in the country. Lebanese President Aoun said Hezbollah had to understand it had no choice but to accept the concept of the state's monopoly on weapons, but added that it had to be achieved through dialogue and not hastily, to avoid confrontation; The United States is reportedly pressuring the Lebanese government to shut down Hezbollah’s financial arm; An indictment was filed against a person affiliated with Hezbollah accused of collaborating with Israel by providing information enabling Israel to target senior Hezbollah terrorists during and after the war; Lebanon is preparing for a visit by Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas, who is expected to discuss the disarmament of armed Palestinian "factions" in the refugee camps. President Aoun questioned whether Palestinian arms were truly meant "to liberate Palestine" or to kill Palestinians and Lebanese.
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Spotlight on Syria (May 7 – 14 May, 2025)

The president of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), confirmed that indirect contacts were being held by Syria and Israel to achieve calm and prevent escalation, and he expressed commitment to the 1974 disengagement agreement. IDF forces continued operating in the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and supporting the Druze in southern Syria; Syrian President al-Sharaa held his first meeting with Trump in Saudi Arabia, after the announcement of the lifting of American sanctions. Trump asked al-Sharaa to join normalization with Israel and to expel Palestinian terrorist operatives from Syria; Syrian security forces prevented arms smuggling operations intended for Hezbollah in Lebanon. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (May 7-14, 2025)

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei re-emphasized the importance of the Palestinian issue for the Muslim world and called for not ignoring the “crimes of the Zionist regime.” The Iranian foreign minister emphasized in discussions with his Arab counterparts the need for cooperation between regional countries to stop Israel’s attacks in the Gaza Strip; A Hamas delegation led by the head of the movement’s Shura Council met in Doha with the head of Iran’s Strategic Council for Foreign Policy and discussed developments in the Gaza Strip; Against the backdrop of a possible Israeli military action against nuclear facilities in Iran, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards warned Israel about the consequences of such an attack; Senior Hezbollah officials reportedly asked the Iranian leadership not to leave Revolutionary Guards officers in Lebanon for fear that Israel would eliminate them; The Houthis claimed responsibility for seven attacks against Israel using ballistic missiles and drones, including the first launch toward Ramon International Airport, and threatened to continue the “air blockade” on Israel. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed three incidents of intercepting a ballistic missile and another interception of a drone. An Israeli warning was published to evacuate the three Houthi seaports; The Houthis welcomed the US decision to stop airstrikes against them, saying it was an American “failure” and an “embarrassment” for Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman praised the “steadfast stance” of the Yemeni people in support of Palestinians against Israel.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (May 5 – 12, 2025)

IDF forces continued taking action against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, which violates the ceasefire, and against the organization's efforts to renew its military capabilities. The IDF attacked a Hezbollah underground compound in the Beaufort Ridge and eliminated several Hezbollah operatives. A senior operative in Hamas' military wing in Lebanon was also eliminated; Hezbollah accused Israel of more than 3,100 “violations” since the start of the ceasefire in November 2024 and claimed 156 people had been killed. Senior Hezbollah figures criticized the government and accused it of weakness in the face of Israeli “aggression."; Senior Lebanese officials condemned the Israeli “violations” and demanded a full withdrawal of IDF forces from Lebanese territory; UNIFIL’s commander said UN forces had discovered more than 200 weapons cache sites and warned that the situation in south Lebanon remained fragile; The Lebanese foreign minister warned that Hezbollah’s stance weakened Lebanon; Senior Hezbollah figures are reportedly pressuring secretary general Na'im Qassem to hold new elections for the Shura Council and hold senior officials who failed during the war with Israel accountable for their failure; Dozens of workers at Beirut Airport were reportedly fired over suspected ties with Hezbollah, part of the government's effort to prevent arms smuggling; A senior Hamas figure in Lebanon claimed they were committed to the ceasefire and the movement had not yet been asked to hand over its weapons.
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Lebanese Positions on Disarming Hezbollah

The Lebanese leadership expressed a desire to conduct a dialogue with Hezbollah to ensure the organization’s disarmament in order to reduce the risk of bloodshed. The Lebanese army took control of a significant portion of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure south of the Litani River, while the United States increased its pressure on Lebanon to accelerate the dismantling Hezbollah’s military capabilities, threatening to allow Israel itself to take action against the organization; Hezbollah absolutely refused to give up the “resistance” against Israel, but gradually mitigated its position, claiming it was prepared to engage in dialogue with the Lebanese government to formulate a national defense strategy which would allow Hezbollah to retain its "military capabilities" alongside the country’s security forces. However, even within the Shi'ite community, voices were heard emphasizing the need to relinquish the weapons, given the blows Hezbollah had suffered during the war against Israel; As of now, the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament is prominent in Lebanon’s public discourse, and for the first time since the organization’s founding more than four decades ago, there is an understanding that the matter is critical for the country’s future and its chances of recovery after the war with Israel. Although President Aoun and senior officials are currently proceeding cautiously, international pressure, especially from the United States and the Gulf States, is growing for Lebanon to complete Hezbollah’s disarmament quickly. Furthermore, conditioning the much-needed economic aid for Lebanon’s recovery on enforcing the state’s monopoly on weapons could place Lebanon’s political and military leadership on a direct collision course with Hezbollah and its supporters and increase internal security tensions.
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The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center
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