Operation Iron Swords The fighting on the Israel-Lebanon border
On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah opened another front against Israel from Lebanon. In recent weeks, Hezbollah has escalated its attacks. Since the beginning of the fighting, Israel has been subjected to 324 attacks from Lebanon, 309 carried out by Hezbollah and 15 by other terrorist organizations. The attacks mainly include the firing of anti-tank missiles, rockets and mortar shells. Recently, Hezbollah began using other weapons, such as heavy Barkan rockets and armed UAVs. Most of cities, towns and villages and IDF posts attacked are along the border or within a few kilometers of it. Since the beginning of the fighting, 86 Hezbollah terrorist operatives and 14 operatives from other terrorist organizations have been killed. Nine Israelis have been killed, six soldiers and three civilians. Hezbollah has rarely mentioned the concept of "the unity of the arenas,". In ITIC assessment, the basic premise of the concept was that Israel would stand alone in an all-out war against many fronts manipulated by Iran, a vision that has been partially realized. Nasrallah has emphasized that it is the Palestinians' war, and Hezbollah's activity against Israel is part of the "support front" of Iran and its various affiliates for Hamas. During the fighting Hezbollah is making an effort to learn how the IDF operates, gauge its capabilities and make adjustments for its current and future activities. At this stage, Hezbollah is operating "below the threshold of war". In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah will continue its activities at the current level with local escalations according to events. However, it is possible that as the IDF's fighting against Hamas progresses and intensifies, and Hezbollah senses a danger to Hamas' survival, it may consider significantly expanding the fighting against Israel, but only in coordination with Lebanese internal constraints and Iran's position.
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