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Israeli Attack in Beirut Eliminates Hassan Nasrallah

On September 27, 2024, the IDF eliminated Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, in an attack on the organization's headquarters under a residential building in the southern suburb of Beirut. Other senior Hezbollah terrorists were killed, including Ali Karaki, commander of the "southern front."; Hezbollah confirmed the death of Nasrallah, nicknamed "Master of the Resistance," calling him "one of its greatest leaders," and its leadership promised to continue the jihad in support of the Gaza Strip and in the "defense of Lebanon". Meanwhile, Hezbollah continued attacking Israel, mostly civilian targets, but did not link the attacks to Nasrallah's death. At this stage, Hezbollah continues attacking and expanding its firing range; The Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets reported that Hezbollah would not stop attacking Israel as part of the "front supporting the Gaza Strip"; Senior Iranian figures condemned the killing of Nasrallah, saying they stood with Hezbollah and Lebanon, but did not threaten a direct military response, although they are probably considering one. Other organizations in the "resistance axis" expressed condolences on Nasrallah's death and praised his role in "the struggle" against Israel. The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq intensified their attacks on Israel; Lebanese politicians eulogized Nasrallah. Opponents of Hezbollah in Lebanon and across the Middle East took to the social media to rejoice; In ITIC assessment, eliminating Nasrallah and the Hezbollah senior military leadership in recent weeks, along with the IDF's ongoing and increasing damage to the organization's chain of command and its military and strategic capabilities throughout Lebanon, has damaged Hezbollah's ability to carry out intensive attacks on Israel, at least in the short term. However, field-level commanders will try to attack more distant targets in Israeli territory, including the greater Tel Aviv area and strategic sites; Nasrallah's most probable successor is Hashem Safi al-Din, the chairman of Hezbollah's Executive Council, who is close to Iran. Apparently Hezbollah will reorganize its ranks with Iranian coordination and assistance and will continue fighting against Israel, partly for survival, and will continue to connect its fighting to the fighting in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah may also seek to intensify the fighting and expand its firing range after Nasrallah's funeral to exact a price from Israel and be able to present a "victory narrative," and may attack an Israeli target abroad; In ITIC assessment, any Hezbollah decision regarding a coordinated and extensive response, independently or in coordination with the other "resistance axis" organizations, depends on Iran, which has to process events and prepare accordingly, while trying to avoid a regional war; In ITIC assessment, Nasrallah's absence, after 32 years as leader of Hezbollah, can have far-reaching consequences throughout the Middle East. For Lebanon, it can mean an opportunity for the government and military to reinstate their authority (with international assistance) in south Lebanon. It may also have an impact on Lebanon's political system, after Hezbollah prevented the country from electing a new president for more than a year. In the Gaza Strip, it might influence Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, to reach an agreement for a ceasefire and release the hostages. 
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (September 17- 24 , 2024)

The IDF forces continued their activity in the southern and central Gaza Strip, including attacks on Hamas facilities operating in civilian environments. Four IDF soldiers were killed by an explosive device in Rafah; Khaled Mashal, head of the "external" Hamas leadership, said the leaders of the movement were not in a hurry to reach a ceasefire agreement at any cost. Hamas rejected an Israeli proposal to exile Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, and other movement leaders; Israel, Judea and Samaria: An Arab-Israeli worker was killed when he tried to attack an IDF soldier at a base in the south. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria. Seven terrorist operatives were killed in the town of Qabatiya near Jenin. Hamas' military wing issued the videotaped last will and testament of the August 2024 Tel Aviv suicide bomber, and threatened to renew suicide bombing attacks in Israel; The chairman of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and its prime minister held meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. The General Assembly approved a non-binding Palestinian proposal that requires Israel to withdraw from the "occupied territories" within a year.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (September 16-23, 2024)

This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 77 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel, including the first attacks on the Jezreel Valley, the Lower Galilee and the suburbs around Haifa. An attempt by a Hezbollah terrorist squad to plant an explosive device bomb near an IDF post was foiled. Two IDF soldiers were killed in the attacks and five civilians were injured; substantial property damage was reported; Israeli Air Force aircraft expanded their attacks on Hezbollah terrorist targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley, including preventive strikes to prevent rockets from being fired and missiles from being launched into Israeli territory. In an attack in Beirut, Ibrahim Aqil, head of Hezbollah's operations and commander of the Radwan Force, was killed, along with the top commanders of the Radwan Force. Hezbollah announced that 65 operatives and commanders had been killed during the past week; The IDF warned the residents of south Lebanon to evacuate their homes in preparation for attacks on Hezbollah weapons hidden in civilian sites. As a result, there was a mass departure of residents from south Lebanon to the north of the country; Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, spoke after the explosions of Hezbollah operatives' hand-held communications devices and accused Israel of committing "massacres" and "declaring war." He warned that retaliation would be "an eye for an eye."; Najib Mikati, prime minister of the Lebanese interim government, warned of a "descent into the unknown" and called for the implementation of the UN Security Council resolutions to calm the situation. Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, accused Israel of trying to transform south Lebanon into "scorched earth."
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Reactions to the Elimination of Ibrahim Aqil and the Top Command of the Radwan Force

On September 20, 2024, the IDF eliminated Ibrahim Aqil, the head of Hezbollah's military operations and commander of the elite Radwan Force, in an airstrike in the southern suburb of Beirut. The attack killed at least 14 other Radwan Force commanders, including Ahmed Mahmoud Wahhabi, the head of military training and part of the Force's top command. According to published information, they were holding a meeting to plan a ground attack on Israeli territory. According to the Lebanese ministry of health at least 50 people were killed in the attack; Hezbollah confirmed the death of Aqil, aka "the great jihad commander," the second senior Hezbollah official granted the title since the current conflict with Israel began in October 2023; Senior Hezbollah figures threatened "an appropriate retaliation" and added that Hezbollah would not stop its "support" for the Gaza Strip. Since Aqil's death Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for more than 20 attacks on targets in Israel, including expanding range of its attacks to the Jezreel Valley and the Haifa area. According to Hezbollah, the attacks were not retaliation for the death of Aqil; Iran and the "resistance axis" organizations condemned the Israeli attack on Beirut; In ITIC assessment, the attack on Aqil and the Radwan Force's top command, in addition to the exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, surprised Hezbollah and are regarded as Israel's deviation from the [Hezbollah-dictated] "rules of conflict" in place since October 8, 2023, and a crossing of red lines. In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah can be expected to react strongly, both by further extending the range of its attacks on Israeli territory and by the use of new weapons, and possibly even an attack on a sensitive military target. However, Hezbollah still does not want a total war, especially in view of the significant damage to its most senior military figures, and will try to make Israel return to the "equations" it has been trying to dictate since the beginning of the conflict, while continuing its "support" for the Gaza Strip. Nasrallah will probably also consider Iran's position regarding the nature and strength of the response, partly because at this time Iran also does not want a regional war which could also include a direct confrontation with Israel and the United States. In ITIC assessment, the other "resistance axis" organizations can be expected to increase their attempts to attack Israel in support of Hezbollah.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis

The Iranian Supreme Leader emphasized that support for “Palestine” was the duty of all Muslims. The Iranian foreign minister affirmed that Iran would continue to support the “resistance front"; Iran strongly condemned the detonation of Hezbollah operatives’ pagers in Lebanon and offered assistance to the wounded. The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon has also been wounded in the series of explosions.; Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian paid an official three-day visit to Iraq, during which he discussed expanding cooperation between the two countries, especially in the economic sphere; Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani met in Baghdad with commanders of the pro-Iranian Shiite militias; A ballistic missile launched by the Houthis exploded in the air in central Israel, causing no casualties. The Houthis claimed that it was a new hypersonic missile but stressed that it was part of the “fifth escalation phase” of activity against Israel and not a response to the Israeli attack on the port of al-Hudaydah; The Houthis announced the downing of another American UAV. A US official denied a senior Houthi official’s claim that the US would recognize the Houthi regime if the attacks against Israel stopped; The Israeli Air Force intercepted a UAV launched from Iraq. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two additional attacks against targets in Israel. The claims have not been verified. A pro-Iranian militia leader said they were preparing to expand their activity against Israel in coordination with the “axis of resistance.”
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (September 10 – 17 , 2024)

IDF forces continued their activities in the southern and central Gaza Strip, including attacks on Hamas facilities operating in civilian compounds. The IDF announced the collapse of Hamas' Rafah Brigade and the destruction of 80% of all the tunnels on the Philadelphi Axis. Two IDF soldiers were killed and seven injured in a helicopter crash; Hamas held talks with the mediators from Egypt and Qatar regarding the ceasefire negotiations, stating it adhered to the outline agreed upon on July 2, 2024 and would not accept new demands from Israel; The first phase of the drive to vaccinate Gazan children against polio ended and 90% of all children have received the first dose. In coordination with Israel, more than a hundred sick and wounded Palestinians were evacuated for treatment outside the Gaza Strip; Hamas published letters sent by Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, for the first time since he took office; A senior Hamas figure stated that the movement was interested in having a Palestinian national consensus government manage the Gaza Strip after the war, adding that the organizations would hold a meeting to promote a common vision; Israel, Judea and Samaria: This past week Palestinians carried out two terrorist attacks. an IDF soldier was killed. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities throughout Judea and Samaria; The PA representative to the UN attended a General Assembly session, following the upgrading of the status of the "State of Palestine."
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