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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 12-19, 2025)

The Iranian Foreign Ministry expressed “deep concern” that the UN Security Council resolution adopting President Trump’s plan for the future of the Gaza Strip contradicts the Palestinians’ right to self-determination. It stressed that the international force in the Gaza Strip should only deal with implementing the ceasefire and bringing in humanitarian aid; The advisor to the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament met in Tehran with senior Iranian government officials, headed by the Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security, the Foreign Minister, and the Speaker of the Majles. He expressed hope that Iran would be more present in dealing with the challenges facing Lebanon; Iranian officials congratulated Iraq following the parliamentary elections held in the country, in which the pro-Iranian militias increased their power; It was reported that Iran returned the IRGC Qods Force representative to Yemen to help the Houthis reorganize following the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the Israeli strikes in Yemen. The UN Security Council extended sanctions on the Houthis and senior figures in the Houthi leadership and security forces by one year.
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 11-18, 2025)

IDF forces continued operating within the Yellow Line in the Gaza Strip to destroy tunnels and terrorist facilities, and eliminated terrorists who posed a threat. According to claims, in the month since beginning of the ceasefire, IDF forces destroyed more than 1,500 structures in the Gaza Strip; Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad returned the body of an Israeli civilian who had been murdered and kidnapped in the October 7, 2023 attack. The bodies of three murdered hostages remain in the Gaza Strip; Hamas continued to advance its civil and security governance in the Strip; Israel opened the Zikim Crossing for the entry of aid trucks, while the American Coordination Center reported that the daily average number of aid trucks had increased from 600 to 800 and that more than 40 countries and organizations were participating in the aid activity. Hamas and its media exploited the rain in the Gaza Strip to promote a "Gaza is sinking" narrative, while blaming Israel for the situation and calling on the international community to send assistance to the Strip; The UN Security Council passed a resolution adopting the American plan for a ceasefire and the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip. Hamas condemned the resolution and warned that any international force operating in the Strip would be considered fighting alongside "the occupation." The Palestinian Authority (PA) welcomed the resolution and continued preparations to reassume responsibility for the Strip; The organizers of the Global Sunud (Perseverance) Flotilla, prevented from reaching the Gaza Strip by Israel in early October 2025, announced that they would dispatch a larger flotilla to the Gaza Strip in the coming months; Israeli security forces continued extensive activity in Judea and Samaria, eliminating terrorists and terrorist cells attempting to attack security personnel and civilians. Clashes continued between Jewish settlers and Palestinian residents during the olive harvest season; The chairman of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, announced that a delegation would arrive for talks at UNESCO for adapting the Palestinian curricula to international standards while preserving "the core of the Palestinian national consciousness."
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 1—12, 2025)

The Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the extensive attacks carried out by the IDF in Lebanon. Iranian media warned of Israel’s intention to conduct a large-scale operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon and threatened a harsh response from Hezbollah and the “resistance front” in case of such action; The US Department of Treasury has stated that Iran has transferred one billion dollars to Hezbollah since the beginning of 2025. The Iranian Embassy in Beirut rejected the American claims; Iranian Majles Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf called for a firm stance against Israel and for exacting a price from countries seeking to normalize relations with it. The Houthi leader accused the United States of being complicit in the Israeli “aggression” in the Gaza Strip even after the ceasefire. The Houthi chief of staff sent a letter to Hamas’ military wing, praising its victory over “the strongest empires.”; Iran has reportedly increased the supply of weapons, including missiles, to pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, in preparation for the possibility of a resumption of hostilities between Iran and Israel. It was also reported that the IRGC encourages major Shiite militias to integrate into Iraq’s political system while at the same time supporting smaller militias so they can continue military activity within the “resistance front.”; Mexican security forces thwarted an IRGC attempt to assassinate Israel’s ambassador to Mexico. Iran strongly denied the report; Senior Houthi officials warned they are preparing for a new round of fighting against Israel and confirmed they have suspended their attacks against Israel and against vessels in view of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip; The Houthis claimed to have uncovered an espionage network operating on behalf of a “joint operations room” of Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia, which had been collecting intelligence on Houthi military and security infrastructure as well as senior government officials.
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 1-11, 2025)

IDF forces operated within Yellow Line areas in the Gaza Strip to destroy tunnels and terrorist facilities, eliminated terrorists who posed a threat, and prevented Hamas from smuggling weapons into the Gaza Strip through the Egyptian border. Hamas accused Israel of "violations" and of having killed more than 270 Gazans since the start of the ceasefire; Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad returned the bodies of six murdered Israeli hostages who had been held since October 7, 2023, along with the body of an IDF soldier who was abducted during Operation Protective Edge in August 2014. The bodies of four murdered Israeli hostages remain in the Gaza Strip. The mediators are trying to resolve the crisis of the armed Hamas terrorist operatives trapped in tunnels in Rafah in areas under Israeli control; Food and humanitarian aid continue to enter the Gaza Strip, while Hamas continues to strengthen its security and civilian control over the local population; The Palestinian Authority (PA) and Fatah called on Hamas to agree to disarm and to allow a PA government minister to be appointed as head of the committee administering the Gaza Strip. A senior Hamas figure unconditionally opposed the deployment of any foreign military force in the Strip; Security and law enforcement authorities in Austria found a suitcase containing weapons suspected of being intended for Hamas terrorist attacks. According to reports, the son of a senior Hamas figure was arrested in London on suspicion of involvement in the case; Israeli security forces continued widespread operations in Judea and Samaria and eliminated terrorists who attacked the forces and carried out attacks; The Saudi Arabian crown prince sent a letter to PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas in support of the Palestinian people and their aspiration to establish an independent state.
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The Palestinian Authority prepares to administer the Gaza Strip after the war

Hamas' violent takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007 created a schism, the first of its kind, between the Palestinian Authority (PA) government in Judea and Samaria and the Hamas government in the Strip, initiating a continuing hostility between the sides despite attempts at reconciliation; The war that broke out with Hamas' attack and massacre of Israelis on October 7, 2023 provided the PA with an opportunity to reiterate its position that after the war, it should regain control of the Strip to create a geographic and political unity with Judea and Samaria ahead of the establishment of a Palestinian state. Senior PA figures stressed the position anew after the ceasefire that went into effect in the Gaza Strip in October 2025, and presented their own plans for the reconstruction of the Strip. Egypt and Qatar expressed support for the PA's position; Hamas voiced its reservations about the PA's return to the Gaza Strip, despite the movement's declaration that it would relinquish control of the Strip. However, after talks between senior Hamas and PA figures in Cairo, Hamas began to moderate its position and publicly support the appointment of a PA government minister to head the future Palestinian committee to administer the Strip. The most-heard name to head the committee is Dr. Amjad Abu Ramadan, the PA minister of health and former mayor of Gaza; In ITIC assessment, the PA can be expected to play a significant role in the committee for administering the Strip, despite Israel's public opposition and American ambiguity, as part of the understanding being formed by Fatah and Hamas, which seeks to demonstrate that it complies with the ceasefire terms. However, in all probability the dispute over the disarmament of Hamas and other "resistance" factions will continue, given Hamas' refusal to disarm, directly opposed to the PA position that it should hold a monopoly on weapons. Therefore, in ITIC assessment, the tension between Hamas and the PA will most likely persist and make it difficult to find a political solution which would enable progress in the efforts to rehabilitate the Strip.
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Escalation of terrorist activity in Judea and Samaria Following the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

Hamas' ambition was to turn Judea and Samaria into an arena for terrorism as part of the campaign to destroy Israel which began with the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre. However, the counterterrorism actions taken by the Israeli security forces, which included the detention and elimination of thousands of wanted persons and terrorist operatives and the seizure of weapons prevented a wave of terrorism from Judea and Samaria; Following the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) began efforts to shift the center of the "resistance" to Judea and Samaria, encouraging attacks on Israeli security forces and settlers; Iran also continues its central role in efforts to turn Judea and Samaria into an active terrorist arena against Israel. A shipment of weapons from Iran was intercepted, which included powerful explosive charges and explosive-carrying drones; Qods Force operatives in Lebanon who were involved in the smuggling routes of weapons were eliminated; In ITIC assessment, after the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian terrorist organizations, with Iranian assistance, will direct a significant portion of their activity to Judea and Samaria to justify their existence by continuing the "resistance." The terrorist organizations will also try to exploit the return of the Palestinian issue to the global stage and the regional and international involvement in the Gaza Strip within the framework of the ceasefire to create pressure on Israel, provoking attacks which could escalate Israel's response in Judea and Samaria. Moreover, the return of hundreds of terrorist operatives from Israeli jails to Judea and Samaria will intensify the activity of the terrorist organizations, which will exploit the knowledge and experience of the released prisoners and the cooperative networks they built in prison.
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