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The Latest Round of Escalation in the Gaza Strip: What Next? (Initial Assessment)

The most recent round of escalation is the eighth significant round since the return marches began on March 30, 2018 (see the Appendix). An analysis of the previous rounds of escalation revealed that the most recent one was different in three main aspects
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The Escalation in the Gaza Strip (An overview updated to 15:00, November 13, 2019)

Massive rocket fire at Israel from the Gaza Strip continues. Since the beginning of the events, between 300 and 350 rockets have been fired (as of noon, November 13, 2019). Most of the rockets were fired at the Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip and at Israel's south. According to the IDF spokesman, 90% of the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome aerial defense system. About 60% fell in open areas.
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Escalation in the Gaza Strip: Massive rocket fire at Israel after the targeted killing of a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad military commander (Updated to 14:00, November 12, 2019)

Before dawn on November 12, 2019, Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked a building in the Sajaiya neighborhood in the northern Gaza Strip. Bahaa Abu al-Atta, the commander of the northern brigade of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and his wife were killed in the attack.( For a portrait of Bahaa Abu al-Atta, see Appendix A).
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Yahya al-Sinwar gave a belligerent speech warning Israel that Hamas and the Palestinian people would not accept the continuation of the “siege” of the Gaza Strip, saying, “We can no longer bear it and our patience is at an end.”

On November 4, 2019, Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, gave a speech before Palestinian youngsters in the Gaza Strip (considered a very important target audience). The speech, which was belligerent and assertive, elaborated on the course of actions of Hamas and the other terrorist organizations (the so-called "resistance") had taken during the past two years and indicated the challenges facing them.
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News of Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (October 30 – November 5, 2019)

This past week events focused on two rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip targeting the southern Israeli town of Sderot and the western Negev According to Israeli security sources quoted by the media, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) was responsible for the rocket attacks. Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, gave a belligerent speech in which he described at length the military capabilities of Hamas and the other terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip.
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News of Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (October 24 – 29, 2019)

On October 25, 2019, the return march was held in the Gaza Strip with the participation of about 5,000 Palestinians. The level of violence was similar to that of previous weeks. Palestinians threw IEDs and Molotov cocktails at IDF forces, sabotaged the security fence and tried to break into Israeli territory. In east Jerusalem an attempted stabbing attack targeted Border Police soldiers. The Israeli security forces destroyed a house in the al-Am'ari refugee camp near Ramallah which belonged to the family of Palestinian terrorist Islam Abu Hamid Senior Palestinian Authority figures stated that the PA would rebuild the house.
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