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Spotlight on Terrorism – October 2024

During October 2024, fighting continued in the Gaza Strip, Judea, Samaria, and south Lebanon, with attacks on Israel from pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Yemen; Lebanon: The fighting escalated with the start of the IDF maneuver against Hezbollah in south Lebanon on October 1, 2024. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 806 attacks on IDF forces and military, security and civilian targets in Israel as far as the Tel Aviv area, and deployed new weapons. Due to high number of casualties, Hezbollah stopped issuing mourning notices for senior figures and operatives, except for the announcement of the elimination of Hashem Safi al-Din, head of the Executive Council, who was to be appointed Hezbollah secretary general; The Gaza Strip: The terrorist organizations fired 28 rockets at Israeli territory, compared to four rockets in September. Targeted killings of senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist operatives continued, including Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip; Israel, Judea and Samaria: Palestinian terrorists carried out eight attacks were carried out in Israel, Judea, Samaria and East Jerusalem, compared to six in September; eight civilians and two security personnel were killed. Three of the terrorists held Israeli identification cards and two others held Jordanian citizenship. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations focused on northern Samaria. At least 27 terrorist operatives were eliminated in exchanges of fire and airstrikes, including commanders of terrorist organizations in Tulkarm, Nablus and Jenin, as well as operatives preparing to carry out attacks; Shi'ite militias: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 72 claims of responsibility for attacking 76 targets in Israeli territory, the highest number since the attacks began in November 2023, prompted by the escalation in the fighting between in Lebanon and the killing of al-Sinwar. The Saraya Awliya al-Dam militia issued 17 claims of responsibility. Most of the Iraqi militia launches were not verified, and some were intercepted. Two IDF soldiers were killed by an UAV in the Golan Heights, the first fatalities from attacks originating in Iraq. The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacking eight targets in Israel, compared to four in September.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (November 5 – 12 , 2024)

The IDF forces continued operations in the northern Gaza Strip, focusing on the Jabalia refugee camp and Beit Lahia, and in the central and southern parts of the Strip. Five IDF soldiers were killed; Qatar announced it was temporarily suspending its mediation efforts for a hostages and ceasefire agreement. Senior Hamas figures denied reports that Qatar had ordered the movement's leadership to leave Doha following American because of lack of progress in negotiations; The IDF announced the opening of the Kerem Shalom Crossing for humanitarian aid and enlarged the humanitarian zone; There has been no progress in talks between Hamas and Fatah on establishing a committee to manage the Gaza Strip; Documentation was published showing torture of Palestinians by Hamas operatives in Gaza. Gazans protested high prices, forced merchants to close their businesses, accused them of deliberately raising prices and complained about lack of oversight, police weakness and ongoing fighting; Two Israelis were injured in a stabbing and vehicle ramming near the settlement of Shilo. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria, including airstrikes; The PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas spoke with President-elect Trump and expressed willingness to work with him to achieve peace. At the Arab-Islamic summit meeting in Saudi Arabia, Mahmoud Abbas met with the King of Jordan and the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince, gave a speech and called on Arab and Muslim countries to pressure for Israel’s expulsion from the UN and to review their relations with Israel.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (October 29 – November 5 , 2024)

The southern arena: IDF forces continued extensive operations in the northern Gaza Strip, focusing on the Jebalya refugee camp and Beit Lahia, while maintaining activity in the central and southern parts of the strip. Two IDF soldiers were killed, and another died after having been wounded; Hamas leaders rejected Egyptian and American proposals for temporary ceasefires and partial releases of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, reiterating their demand for a complete end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal from the entire Gaza Strip; Hamas and Fatah representatives reached a preliminary agreement to establish a technocratic committee to manage public affairs for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and handle the strip's reconstruction after the war's end; Israel, Judea and Samaria: Over the past week no terrorist attacks were carried out. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities throughout Judea and Samaria, including airstrikes. Dozens of operatives from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine were detained in operations in Judea and Samaria; PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas visited Cairo, meeting with President el-Sisi and the head of the Arab League. The Palestinians condemned Israel's announcement of banning UNRWA's activities.
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Sheikh Na’im Qassem, Hezbollah’s Newly – Appointed Secretary General

On October 29, 2024, Hezbollah announced that the Shura Council had appointed Sheikh Na'im Qassem as the organization's new secretary general, replacing Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut on September 27, 2024. In his first speech Qassem pledged to continue in Nasrallah's path and said Hezbollah would end the current war against Israel only on its own terms; Qassem is one of Hezbollah's founders and has served as the deputy secretary general since 1991. However, he has no military training and is considered the organization's chief ideologue, focusing on Hezbollah's political and social aspects; One of Hezbollah's most important spokesmen, in his books and public statements he has justified the "resistance" against Israel and denied its right to exist. He has also admitted that Hezbollah operates according to directives from Iran; Qassem was not considered the leading candidate to replace Hassan Nasrallah, but he was appointed by default after the elimination of Hashem Safi al-Din, the head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, who had been marked as Nasrallah's designated successor. In ITIC assessment, the objective of appointing Na'im Qassem was to represent continuity within the organization's leadership during ongoing combat with Israel, with Hezbollah likely to choose a permanent secretary general after a lasting ceasefire has been achieved. Despite Qassem’s long role in Hezbollah, his lack of military experience means Iran can be expected to oversee Hezbollah’s fighting by means of representatives from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and its Qods Force, and to influence Hezbollah's combat against Israel and decisions regarding a potential ceasefire.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (October 14 – 29 , 2024)

According to reports, Hamas would not elect a successor to Yahya al-Sinwar as the new head of its political bureau until March 2025 and would rely on the leadership of a committee composed of five senior members; IDF forces continued operations in the northern Gaza Strip, focusing on the Jabalia refugee camp and Beit Lahia, and in the central and southern regions of the Strip. Fourteen IDF soldiers were killed; Negotiations continued for a hostages and ceasefire agreement mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Senior Hamas figures did not reject the Egyptian president's proposal for a short ceasefire and the release of four Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, but Hamas continues to demand a complete end to the war, full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the reconstruction of the Strip; Israel, Judea and Samaria: There were five terrorist attacks. An Israeli police officer and a civilian were killed, and others were injured. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities throughout Judea and Samaria; Mahmoud Abbas and senior Palestinian Authority figures continued activities in the international arena, accusing Israel of committing "genocide" and calling on the international community to impose sanctions on Israel unless it withdrew from Palestinian territories.
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The Elimination of Yahya al-Sinwar, Head of Hamas: Reactions and Insights

On October 17, 2024, the IDF spokesperson announced that Yahya al-Sinwar, head of Hamas' political bureau, had been killed in an encounter with IDF forces while he was hiding in a building in Rafah. The IDF spokesperson reported that al-Sinwar's identity became clear only after his body was discovered and that it had not been a targeted killing; Only a day later did Hamas confirm the death of al-Sinwar, who was appointed head of the political bureau at the beginning of September 2024 after the elimination of Isma'il Haniyeh. The movement's announcements praised al-Sinwar's role in leading Operation al-Aqsa Flood (the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre) and his death in a clash with IDF forces, adding that they would continue their "resistance" and would not change their conditions for ending the war in the Gaza Strip and releasing the hostages; The Palestinian Authority and the other Palestinian terrorist organizations condemned the killing, stating he was a symbol of the "resistance" and claiming he had been killed while facing the "enemy"; Iran and the rest of the "resistance axis" stated that al-Sinwar was a "fighter" and a symbol of the "resistance," and promised to continue their support for the Palestinian "resistance." Hamas and "resistance axis" supporters on the social networks praised al-Sinwar as having stood up to the "enemy" until the last minute, while Hamas opponents did not hide their satisfaction at his death; In ITIC assessment, his death might increase the importance of the "external" leadership in Qatar, but it is possible that Hamas will not reveal the name of the new leader to make it difficult for Israel to eliminate him or exert pressure on him in the negotiations. In ITIC assessment, al-Sinwar's brother, Muhammad al-Sinwar, is expected to fill his place in the leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, both at the "political" and the military level. In ITIC assessment, in the near future the Hamas leadership will not change its positions regarding negotiations to end the war in the Gaza Strip, which are demands for a complete halt to the fighting, a complete withdrawal of IDF forces from the Strip, and the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, especially the prisoners with blood on their hands, in exchange for the release of the hostages. However, if the "external" Hamas leadership becomes the dominant actor, it may be possible to exert sufficient pressure to achieve flexibility regarding the details of the deal and the future leadership in the Gaza Strip.
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