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Hamas Exploits the War in Iran to Tighten Its Civilian and Security Control of the Gaza Strip

The war in Iran and disputes regarding the activity of the new committee for managing the Gaza Strip are delaying the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, according to which Hamas is supposed to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip and disarm; Hamas is exploiting the situation to tighten its security control using violence and force against those who are critical, labeled "collaborators" or members of militias receiving Israeli support. Hamas' growing confidence is reflected in the public presence of armed operatives from the military wing and the security forces; Hamas is also continuing its efforts to rebuild its military capabilities by smuggling arms from Egypt and independently developing weapons which pose a threat to IDF forces in the Gaza Strip and to the State of Israel; Hamas is also strengthening civilian governance in the areas under its control through a wide deployment of police forces, some of whom are openly armed, and the ongoing activity of government ministries. That is manifested by tight supervision over merchants in the markets and the distribution of financial aid to Gazan civilians; In ITIC assessment, as long as Israel and the United States focus their attention on the wars in Iran and Lebanon against Hezbollah, Hamas will continue to entrench its dominance in the Gaza Strip regardless of Israeli attacks, pressure to relinquish control and disarm, and criticism from Gazans over the high cost of living and the collapse of services. Hamas will continue to tightensecurity and military governance, including accelerating its rearming and the recruitm ent and training of operatives. It will continue to strengthen civilian governance, combining violence and intimidation with the battle for hearts and minds to ensure it remains a power in Gaza even if the second phase of the ceasefire agreement is implemented and Hamas (ostensibly) transfers control to the Palestinian technocratic committee.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (March 11-18, 2026)

As part of the military campaign in Lebanon, the IDF eliminated senior operatives acting on behalf of the IRGC. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry protested to Iran over the joint attacks with Hezbollah against Israel and denied that the four Qods Force operatives killed in an Israeli strike were diplomats; The Houthis have continued to emphasize that they are monitoring developments in the campaign involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, but have not yet intervened in the fighting; Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq continued attacks using missiles and drones against American bases and facilities in Iraq, Jordan, and the Gulf states. The military spokesman for Kata’ib Hezbollah was eliminated; In his first message, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, emphasized Iran’s support for the “Resistance Front” and declared it an integral part of the values of the Islamic Revolution; “World Jerusalem Day” rallies were held across Iran despite the military campaign. Senior Iranian officials used the events to stress Iran’s commitment to the Palestinian cause and the destruction of the State of Israel.
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (March 10-17, 2026)

Hamas condemned the "American-Zionist aggression" against Iran and noted Iran's "right" to respond, but not against its neighbors. Hamas also reportedly sent a secret letter to Iran's leader for all fronts to be activated against Israel; IDF forces continued operations within the Yellow Line area in the Gaza Strip and eliminated Hamas terrorists who posed a threat, including those involved in the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack and massacre; Hamas is tightening its "security" governance in the areas under its control in Gaza with public appearances of armed police and operatives from the military wing; The Turkish IHH continues to increase its activity in the Gaza Strip; A Hamas delegation visited Cairo and held talks with Egyptian officials and with representatives of the Board of Peace regarding implementation of the ceasefire agreement; The United States imposed sanctions on four associations that helped fund Hamas' military wing under the guise of humanitarian activity. A suspect involved in a Hamas plot to attack Israeli and/or Jewish targets in Europe was arrested in Cyprus; Shots were fired at IDF forces in Samaria; there were no casualties. An Israeli civilian was stabbed and seriously wounded in Ramat Gan, suspected as a terrorist attack, and an Arab-Israeli was detained; The chairman of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, spoke to the Pope. Abbas said that once the war in Iran ended, an international peace conference should be convened to end the "Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories and Arab territories in Lebanon and Syria."
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (March 9-16, 2026)

IDF forces continued attacking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon from the air and eliminated terrorist commanders and operatives, including the commander of the Nasr Unit, as well as operatives linked to Iran and Palestinian terrorist organizations operating in Lebanon. The forces continued ground activity in south Lebanon to locate and destroy weapons and terrorist infrastructure and assets. Evacuation notices were issued in south Lebanon and in neighborhoods in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut; Hezbollah claimed responsibility for more than 180 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon using rockets, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, some of the attacks simultaneous with missile and UAV launches from Iran; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem claimed the conflict was "defensive" in response to Israeli "aggression" and part of the campaign by Israel and the United States against Iran. Qassem and other Hezbollah figures said they were prepared for a long conflict and would fight until they had achieved their objectives; The president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, is promoting an initiative to open direct negotiations with Israel to end the fighting and regulate the security situation on the border; The Lebanese government continued to place responsibility for the new crisis on Hezbollah and noted the obligation of the state's monopoly over weapons. The minister of information prohibited the National News Agency from referring to Hezbollah as "jihad fighters" or "resistance."; Lebanese authorities stated that at least 850 people had been killed since the beginning of the Israeli attacks and that nearly one million people had been displaced.
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (March 3-10, 2026)

According to reports, the talks on implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, including the issue of disarming Hamas, were frozen because of the war in Iran. A member of the technocrat committee for managing the Gaza Strip admitted they could not make progress under the existing circumstances; IDF forces continued activity within the Yellow Line in the Gaza Strip and destroyed five underground tunnels and rocket launchers aimed at the State of Israel; The Israeli Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories accused Hamas of seizing goods and raising prices despite the renewed entry of aid trucks into the Gaza Strip; Hamas exploited the delay in the activity of the technocrat committee and the new security forces to continue consolidating civilian governance and "security" in the Gaza Strip; The Palestinian Authority condemned the deaths of local residents during settler riots, while Hamas called for confrontations with the "settler gangs." 
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon (March 2-9, 2026)

On March 2, 2026, Hezbollah renewed its attacks on Israel in response to the Iran-Israel War which began on February 28, 2026. IDF forces attacked Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon and eliminated terrorist commanders and operatives, senior officials in Iran's Qods Force and commanders in Palestinian terrorist organizations operating in Lebanon. In addition, IDF forces seized additional terrain in south Lebanon and located and destroyed terrorist facilities and assets. Evacuation notices were issued for all residents of south Lebanon and for neighborhoods in Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut. Two IDF soldiers were killed in the fighting; Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 124 attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon, firing rockets and launching missiles and UAVs, including the first rockets fired at central Israel since the ceasefire of November 2024. The organization attacked the northern cities of Nahariya and Kiryat Shmona after issuing "evacuation notices" to residents. Hezbollah did not report the number of casualties in its ranks, however according to unofficial estimates more than 100 operatives were killed; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem claimed the new attacks were in response to Israel and American "aggression" to "violations" of the ceasefire agreement. He accused the Lebanese government of weakening the state, diminishing its standing and surrendering to external demands; The Lebanese leadership announced it would implement the ban on Hezbollah's military and security activity and said the organization was responsible for the new escalation. The government also ordered the expulsion of all Qods Force operatives from Lebanon and said Iranian citizens would require a visa to enter the country; The Lebanese army withdrew from positions in south Lebanon and erected checkpoints to prevent the passage of Hezbollah operatives and weapons south of the Litani River. It was reported that the military court released detained Hezbollah operatives following heavy pressure from the organization; Lebanese authorities reported that nearly 400 people had been killed since the beginning of the Israeli attacks and that more than half a million people had been displaced. The Lebanese prime minister said the state was committed to providing shelter for all the displaced.
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