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Escalation of the Confrontation Between Israel and the Houthis Background and Significance

On July 19, 2024, an Iranian-made UAV launched in Yemen by the Houthis exploded in Tel Aviv, killing one civilian and injuring eight others; In response, on July 20, 2024, the Israeli Air Force attacked several targets in the area of the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of al-Hudaydah, in northwest Yemen. According to reports, at least six people were killed and more than 80 injured; On July 21, 2024, the Houthis announced the launch of ballistic missiles at Eilat. the IDF reported intercepting a missile before it entered Israeli territory; The leader of the Houthi movement said the UAV attack marked the beginning of the "fifth phase" in the "conflict" with Israel. Senior Houthi officials claimed that the Israeli attack on al-Hudaydah was a "crime" committed against "civilian facilities" which would not keep the Houthis from "supporting" the Gaza Strip; Palestinian terrorist organizations and organizations affiliated with the Iranian-led "resistance axis" praised the; In ITIC assessment, the Houthis fully intend to react directly against Israel, possibly leading to further escalation in the confrontation. Iran, whose influence on the Houthis is limited, seems to have no particular interest in expanding the conflict.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (July 15 – 22 , 2024)

During the past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 44 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel, including towns and villages which had not previously been attacked. The Lebanese Companies for Resistance to the Israeli Occupation and Hamas-Lebanon also claimed responsibility for attacks on military targets. Two IDF soldiers were wounded in the attacks, there was significant damage to property; Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley, including the commander of a unit of the Radwan Force; Hezbollah announced that seven operatives had been killed in the attacks. The IDF also eliminated a senior terrorist operative who belonged to al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya and Hamas-Lebanon; Hezbollah and the "resistance axis" continued preparing for the possibility of a war; Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah secretary general, threatened to attack new cities, towns and villages in Israel in response to harm to Lebanese civilians, and promised Hezbollah would restore the settlements in south Lebanon; Syria: A Syrian businessman close to the regime and the "resistance axis" was killed in an attack attributed to Israel.
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Spotlight on Iran (July 10 – 17, 2024)

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking with Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, stressed that his government would place the Palestinian issue at the top of his list of priorities and would work to stop the war in the Gaza Strip; Qods Force commander visited several countries in the region and met with commanders and senior members of the “resistance front” to emphasize Iran’s continued support for the pro-Iranian axis; Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri warned that if Israel tried to expand the war to other arenas, it would cause itself further damage and benefit the “resistance"; The Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed joint responsibility for launching drones at a ship in the Mediterranean. In addition, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for three attacks of its own against targets in Israel. There has been no confirmation of the claims from other sources; The Houthis reported attacks against civilian vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The US Central Command confirmed two of the attacks, one of them against an Israeli-owned ship. There were no casualties, but damage was caused. In addition, the Houthis claimed responsibility for launching drones at Eilat. There has been no verification of the claim from other sources.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (July 9 – 16, 2024)

This past week IDF activity focused on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, while IDF forces completed their activity in the Shejaiya neighborhood of Gaza City. The forces also operated at UNRWA headquarters in Gaza, where they found large quantities of weapons. The IDF attacked a compound near displaced persons in Khan Yunis from the air, where Muhammed Deif, the commander of Hamas' military wing was hiding. The likelihood that Deif was also killed is increasing. The Palestinian organizations continue firing rockets at the cities, towns and villages surrounding the Gaza Strip; Senior Hamas figures said the movement wanted to continue negotiations despite the attack on Khan Yunis, and blamed Israel for impeding progress; Senior Fatah figures accused Hamas of responsibility for killing civilians in the Israeli attack on Khan Yunis. It was agreed that talks between the representatives of the two movements would resume in China; Four IDF soldiers were injured in a vehicle ramming attack at the Nir Zvi Junction, carried out by a resident of east Jerusalem. Three Israelis were injured in a shooting attack in Samaria. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria; The PA prime minister and senior PLO figures met in Ramallah with the new British foreign minister.
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Hezbollah’s Policy for the Use of Force against Israel

On October 8, 2023, a day after the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah joined the fighting, opening another front on Israel's northern border. Its objective was to demonstrate solidarity with and to "support" Hamas in its war against Israel and to oblige Israel to invest combat and other resources on the northern border at the expense of fighting in the Gaza Strip; Hezbollah's policy of using force is based on its so-called "deterrent equation" of proactive attacks, attacks in response to IDF offensive activity, attacks on important Israeli targets and increasing the range of attack in response to Israeli attacks on the organization's sensitive targets; During the fighting, Hezbollah adjusted the "equation" with gradual escalation when it felt Israeli attacks had become disproportionate, usually during an escalation in the war in the Gaza Strip or following the elimination of senior Hezbollah commanders. The escalation included the use of more advanced weapons, the larger barrages of rocket launches and longer-range attacks; Meanwhile, Hezbollah is trying to preserve its "deterrent equation" even in the face of expanding the conflict should Israel initiate a ground operation in south Lebanon and to the point of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (July 2 – 9 , 2024)

This past week IDF activity focused on the Shejaiya neighborhood in Gaza City and Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. IDF forces began operations in southwest Gaza and attacked Hamas terrorist facilities located in UNRWA school compounds. Four IDF soldiers were killed this week. The Palestinian organizations continued firing rockets at the cities, towns and villages surrounding Gaza; Hamas conveyed its response to the proposal for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages. Senior Hamas figures stated that the movement had shown "flexibility" and accused Israel of trying to sabotage the negotiations; The situation in the Gaza Strip and the treatment of the residents led to criticism of Hamas; Senior Hamas figures held meetings to coordinate with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and with senior figures of the "resistance front" and other Palestinian organizations; Hamas expressed opposition to the presence of foreign forces to administer the Strip; An IDF soldier stabbed to death by an Israeli Arab in a shopping mall in Karmiel. An Israeli civilian was injured in a vehicle ramming attack in Asael and an Israeli civilian was shot and wounded in an attack near Nablus. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria; Mahmoud Abbas spoke with the new British prime minister and called on him to recognize a Palestinian state.
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