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Al-Qaeda

Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) December 9 – 16 , 2024

The new transitional government in Syria, headed by Mohammad al-Bashir, began its activities after the transfer of powers from the last government of the al-Assad regime. Among its first decisions were the deployment of police forces in major cities and the prohibition of smoking and drinking alcohol; Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al-Shara continued to make conciliatory statements. He announced the dismantling of the security forces and the closure of prisons and emphasized the end of the Iranian presence in the country; The Turkish-backed rebel forces completed the takeover of Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Kurds expressed concern about the attacks against them and called for a meeting of all political forces in the country to formulate a unified vision; The IDF continued to operate against strategic weapons stockpiles and military infrastructure of the Syrian army throughout Syria and within the buffer zone in the Golan Heights. Ahmad al-Shara stressed that Israel’s actions could lead to escalation and that Syria has no intention of entering a new war; Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem expressed hope that the new regime in Damascus would not promote normalization with Israel and would continue to view it as an enemy; The US Secretary of State confirmed that the United States has maintained ties with HTS despite its designation as a terrorist organization. Russia has started reducing its forces in Syria and is seeking to secure an agreement to maintain its two major military bases in the country.  
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The Power Groups in Syria after the Fall of the Assad Regime

On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamist-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwest Syria. Other groups, sponsored by Turkey, initiated the Operation Dawn of Liberation in the Aleppo area, while another coalition of rebel organizations took control of southern Syria. On December 8, 2024, the rebels occupied Damascus and overthrew the Assad regime; The campaign was managed by three umbrella groups: the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army and the Southern Operations Room. Each was made up of organizations, units and political entities with ideological, religious and ethnic differences and varying interests; Also to be taken into account are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militia led by Kurdish forces and supported by the United States, whose objective is to strengthen Kurdish control in northern Syria and which is currently in conflict with the new power structures in Syria; The factions which have taken control in Syria have yet to issue official statements regarding Israel, even in light of IDF strikes on strategic facilities across Syria and the seizure of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights; Despite the cooperation of revolutionary forces in overthrowing Assad's regime and statements from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) about his desire to establish a government representing all Syrians, the large number of groups and conflicting interests are likely to lead to internal conflicts and exacerbate the chaos within Syria. However, if the parties learn from mistakes made in other parts of the Middle East after the overthrow of authoritarian regimes, such as Iraq and Libya, and manage to find an inclusive formula which meets the interests of the various groups and communities, in ITIC assessment, in the long term opportunities exist for stabilization in Syria.
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Al-Qaeda

Al-Qaeda is a global Islamic terrorist organization founded by Palestinian terrorist operative Abdullah Azzam in 1988. Al-Qaeda originated in Afghanistan as an underground movement that operated against the Soviet occupation. Since its establishment, Al-Qaeda operated under the leadership and funding of Osama bin Laden. Al-Qaeda was officially defined as an organized entity in 1988 by its founder and first leader, Osama bin Laden. Since being defined as an organized entity, Al-Qaeda has become a global Islamic terrorist organization operating in many arenas around the world. Ideologically, Al-Qaeda relies on the Salafi school of Islam, viewing jihad as the personal duty of every Muslim.

Al-Qaeda does not operate in a clear hierarchical framework, but rather as a confederation of terrorist organizations that carry out the organization’s ideology and tactics. Osama bin Laden served as a source of inspiration and guidance for carrying out terrorist activity. The organization also provides various types of assistance and support to terrorist organizations that advocate global jihad around the world.

Al-Qaeda was behind a series of showcase attacks against the United States, the most prominent of which was the attack on the World Trade Center in New York on September 11, 2001. Al-Qaeda’s activities also included harming the civilian population and damaging the holy sites of various religions. After a prolonged manhunt, Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed by US Army forces on May 2, 2011. He was replaced by his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian who was also one of the founders of Al-Qaeda.

In recent years, Al-Qaeda’s center of power in Afghanistan and Pakistan has grown weaker. At the same time, local networks affiliated with Al-Qaeda in various Muslim countries have grown stronger, including Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen; Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the Fateh al-Sham Front in Syria.