Ad Hoc Studies

Hamas Promotes a “Victory” Narrative for Gaza Strip War

The announcement of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, even before it went into effect on January 19, 2025, provided Hamas with an opportunity to start promoting a "victory" narrative over Israel in the aza Strip War, which they refer to as Operation al-Aqsa Flood, which began with the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023; Official statements from Hamas and its senior figures, amplified by the movement's official and affiliated media outlets, as well as during public "release ceremonies" for Israeli hostages, aimed to promote the narrative that Israel had failed to achieve its objectives against the "resistance" and the "steadfastness" of the Gazans; Hamas' media made extensive use of statements from Israeli political, military and media figures, which in their perspective reinforced the message of Israel's "failure" to achieve the war's objectives; In ITIC assessment, Hamas will continue highlighting Israel's failure to achieve its objectives and promoting the "victory" narrative as long as the ceasefire agreement is maintained, in order to soften public criticism in Gaza of the extensive devastation in the Strip. If the agreement transitions to the second phase, which is expected to include further Israeli withdrawals from Gaza and the release of more prisoners who committed particularly serious crimes, Hamas will intensify its "victory" propaganda to increase its power in Gaza and maintain its position in the Palestinian arena, even if it is forced to relinquish actual control over the Gaza Strip. Read more...

Al-Jazeera Program about the October 7, 2023, Terrorist Attack and Massacre

On January 24, 2025, al-Jazeera TV aired a special episode of the investigative program "What Is Hidden Is Greater." It focused on the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023 [the so-called "Operation al-Aqsa Flood"] from the perspective of Hamas' military wing; The program aired previously-unseen footage of Muhammed Deif, the commander of Hamas' military wing, and Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip; The program promoted Hamas's false narrative that the attack was intended only to harm Israeli military personnel and abduct soldiers and officers while not harming children and the elderly; In ITIC assessment, the program was broadcast to reinforce the "victory" narrative Hamas has been promoting since the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect and to justify the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre as a "legitimate military action." Al-Sinwar in the Rafah was shown in the combat zone to establish the narrative of the "fighter leader" who was on the front lines until his death, not hiding in tunnels. The details the programs revealed about al-Sinwar and Deif provided further evidence of the close connection between Hamas and Qatar's al-Jazeera network, as did its correspondents' exposure as operatives in the Hamas military-terrorist wing and its exclusive permission to cover the release of Israeli hostages. Read more...

The atmosphere among Palestinians who returned to the northern Gaza Strip

Opening access to northern Gaza, as part of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, led to euphoria among the returnees, who did not hide their happiness and felt a sense of participation in the "victory" narrative promoted by Hamas. However, encountering the widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure in northern Gaza led to frustration and anger, and thousands of displaced Gazans returned to the south of the Strip; Some of the criticism was directed at Hamas, with accusations that the movement was not addressing the urgent needs of the residents and was instead focusing on hostage "liberation ceremonies". Nevertheless, criticism remains limited due to fears of a violent response from Hamas, which was quick to demonstrate power and governance as the ceasefire went into effect; In ITIC assessment, uncertainty regarding the timetable for Gaza's reconstruction, particularly in the north, will most likely increase frustration and many may return to the displaced persons camps in the south, where basic services exist and there is a steady supply of humanitarian aid. In addition, given President Trump's proposal to temporarily or permanently relocate the residents of the Strip, the destruction may increase willingness, especially among the younger generation, to consider leaving for abroad in hopes of building their future. In ITIC assessment, Hamas will suppress critical voices by force. However, given public frustration, the extensive destruction in Gaza will make it difficult for Hamas to sustain its "victory" narrative over time without presenting solutions, and may seek to shift responsibility, for instance to the committee for managing the Strip which Egypt is trying to promote, while striving to maintain its military strength. Read more...

The issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in light of President Trump’s proposal

On January 25, 2025, after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect, U.S, President Trump proposed the temporary or permanent relocation of all Gazans in light of the extensive destruction and to facilitate reconstruction. The proposal sparked condemnations from the Palestinians, Iran and Arab states, which accused it of being a "forced displacement" in violation of international law; The proposal reignited the issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in general and of young people in particular, known even before the Gaza Strip War. Unofficial data indicated that approximately 300,000 young people had left the Strip since Hamas took control in 2007, primarily due to the economic situation and lack of hope for the future; The Hamas leadership sought to downplay emigration, calling any reference to it a Palestinian Authority smear campaign, but a document found by the IDF in Gaza written by the Khan Yunis Brigade of Hamas' military wing indicated concerns over the departure of young people, who constituted a significant part of the movement’s fighting force; In ITIC assessment, the Palestinians and Arab states will continue to present a united front against the plan in an attempt to eliminate it in its early stages. However, even if the plan is not implemented, the opening of the Rafah Crossing and others at the end of the war could lead to a significant wave of emigration from Gaza because of the widespread destruction and uncertainty about the future. Such a scenario would pose a significant challenge to Hamas, which would do everything in its power to prevent the emigration of young people, which could weaken its political and military stranglehold on the Gazan public. Read more...

Documents captured show how Hamas uses information published by an Israeli research center

IDF forces in the Gaza Strip captured thousands of Hamas documents, including those relating to the routes Iran used to smuggle weapons to its proxies in the "resistance axis." One of the documents described the smuggling routes for weapons, technological information and money from Iran to Lebanon and Syria, in order to examine the measures taken by Israel and the United States to prevent the smuggling; An examination of the data showed that a significant portion of the information in the captured document, including the maps, was based on and copied from publications by the Alma Center, an Israeli research institute. It is noted that the captured document contained less information than the original document; Documents published by Israeli research institutes are used by Hamas to understand to what extent its capabilities and those of the "resistance axis" are exposed, and it is entirely possible that on occasion the information is presented as Hamas insights without references to the original source. The author of the document in question pretended to have written it, presenting information as if he had acquired it himself, apparently to make it seem as though he were an authority. Read more...

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