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Ad Hoc Studies

Lebanese Government Decides to Disarm Hezbollah – Positions of Power Actors

On August 5, 2025, the Lebanese government instructed the army to prepare a plan to disarm all armed militias, including Hezbollah, by the end of the current year. Two days later, the government approved the principles submitted in a document by the American special envoy, Thomas Barrack, which included a timetable for disarmament. Ministers from Hezbollah and Amal left the meetings before they ended; The president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, and the prime minister, Nawaf Salam, noted after the government meetings that the state would implement the state's monopoly on weapons and ensure its sovereignty over its territory, despite the complexity of the task; Hezbollah made it clear that it would ignore the government's decisions and warned that no one could disarm the "resistance." The organization stated that it was not willing to discuss its weapons before state authorities took action to end the "Israeli aggression." Hezbollah and Amal were reportedly considering toppling the government in a vote of no confidence in the Lebanese Parliament; Hezbollah supporters held rallies in its strongholds across the country, while articles in Hezbollah-affiliated media accused Aoun and Salam of acting in the service of the United States and Saudi Arabia; Hezbollah's political opponents welcomed the government's decision to disarm the organization, calling it a "final decision" with which Hezbollah had to comply. They stressed that the weapons in Hezbollah's hands had only damaged Lebanon; Senior Iranian officials expressed support for Hezbollah and dismissed the decision to disarm it. In response, the Lebanese foreign ministry condemned Iran's meddling in internal Lebanese affairs, and politicians called for the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador; In ITIC assessment, the Lebanese government will continue to exert pressure on Hezbollah and try to continue dialoguing with it so that it obeys the government's decision and disarms, while the Lebanese army will continue to work with UNIFIL to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure in south Lebanon. However, Hezbollah will find it difficult to cooperate due to the combination of the uncompromising "resistance" ideology against Israel, the expectation of reconstruction funds from Iran, and the fear that its opponents will exploit its disarming to attack the Shi'ite community in Lebanon. As a result, it becomes increasingly likely that internal clashes will begin, which could deteriorate into armed confrontations and harm politicians leading the pro-disarmament line.
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Possible Iranian Terrorist Attacks Abroad Following the Israel-Iran War

Iran uses global terrorism to promote its national interests, including attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in response to actions attributed to Israel, such as the attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and the elimination of senior Iranian and "resistance axis" figures; Iranian terrorist activity is supervised and directed by the Qods Force of the Revolutionary Guards and the Ministry of Intelligence. To obscure direct Iranian involvement, for the most part the attacks are carried out by proxy organizations, especially Hezbollah, local operatives, and criminal organizations; Following the Israel-Iran War, June 13 to 24, 2025, during which Israel eliminated dozens of Iranian commanders and attacked nuclear facilities and other strategic Iranian capabilities, Iran may, as part of its response, attempt to attack Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide. The arrest of one suspect who planned an attack on Israelis in Cyprus and of another who photographed Jewish targets in Germany, both of whom operated under Qods Force direction, were early signs the threat was manifesting itself; In ITIC assessment, the unprecedented extent of the damage suffered by Iran, and its need to restore its image and create a balance of deterrence to keep Israel from taking further action, will increase Iran's motivation to attack Israeli and Jewish targets and assets around the world. As in the past, Iranian efforts to exact a price from Israel in the form of a showcase attack abroad can be expected to continue over time, using the wide range of capabilities, networks and facilities available to Iranian intelligence and security services in various countries, while Israel and friendly intelligence services continue to work against them.
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Iran’s Use of Surface-to-Surface Cluster Missiles as a Manifestation of State Terrorism

The Iranian regime has used terrorism against Israeli targets for many years to promote its interests, including deterrence and revenge. Its global terrorist attacks deliberately target civilians and it continuously supports a series of proxy terrorist organizations in the Middle East and provides them with weapons with which to attack the home front in Israel; The recent Israel-Iran War revealed an additional aspect of Iran's use of terrorism against Israel, involving the direct firing of surface-to-surface missiles at population centers. Iran deliberately targeted the home front despite its claim that the missiles allegedly targeted strategic installations and military bases; The most glaring example of Iranian surface-to-surface missile terrorism was the use of the Khorramshahr-4 missile, publicly unveiled in Iran in 2023, defined as a long-range strategic ballistic missile which carries approximately 80 small cluster bombs, which scatter indiscriminately and cause extensive damage. During the war, Iran conducted the missile’s first operational use, causing widespread damage; In ITIC assessment, the concept behind developing surface-to-surface missiles like the Khorramshahr-4 and launching them at Israeli territory was to cause maximum damage to civilians and serve as a tool of terrorism to sow fear and disrupt daily life. As such, the Khorramshahr-4 is another form of Iranian terrorism targeting civilian populations, setting a dangerous international precedent in the use of long-range cluster surface-to-surface missiles as a form of state terrorism.
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Oil Exports, an Important Component of Iran’s Funding for Terrorism

For over four decades Iran has been considered the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism, with the regime in Tehran using the Qods Force of the Revolutionary Guards to directly support a range of proxy organizations operating against the United States, Israel and pro-Western Arab states across the Middle East. According to estimates, Iran provides hundreds of millions of dollars annually in financial assistance to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis in Yemen and the Shi'ite militias in Iraq; The Iranian regime’s main source of revenue is its energy sector, which generates about half the country’s export income. Iran’s security bodies receive state allocations of oil which they are expected to sell themselves, and the profits from the sales are used to fund their own operations and those of affiliated terrorist organizations; The United States has imposed sanctions on Iran with the objective of restricting its ability to sell oil on international markets. In an effort to circumvent the sanctions, Iran operates a complex network of intermediaries, front companies, and “shadow fleet“ of tankers; With the formation of the Trump administration at the beginning of 2025, the United States renewed its “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, which had been in effect during Trump’s first term between 2018 and 2020. In recent months, the United States has worked to tighten the sanctions while exposing dozens of entities involved in Iran’s illegal oil trade; At the same time, Iranian opposition elements have exposed dozens of companies, individuals and financial entities involved in Iran’s sanction-evasion operations. The exposures reflect the extensive scope of Iran’s illegal activities and provide a broad foundation for expanding the campaign against Tehran’s attempts to evade American sanctions; The aim of this report is to shed light on how the Iranian security bodies use the illegal oil trade to finance support for terrorist organizations across the Middle East, as well as the entities assisting them. It can be assumed that a focused application of sanctions targeting Iran’s ability to export oil could yield two achievements, namely increasing economic pressure on Iran as part of the “maximum pressure” strategy and directly undermining the financing the support and military buildup of the terrorist organizations loyal to the Tehran regime.
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“Resistance Axis” Reactions to the Israel-Iran Military Conflict

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a preemptive attack in Iran on dozens of military and security targets and sites of the nuclear program across Iran. More than 20 senior figures in the security leadership, military commanders and nuclear scientists were eliminated, including the commander of the armed forces and the commander of the Revolutionary Guards; Iran confirmed the deaths of the senior officials. Regime officials threatened that "the Zionist regime" would pay a "steep price," and the Revolutionary Guards launched Operation True Promise 3, attacking Israel with UAVs and ballistic missiles; Members of the "resistance axis" condemned Israel, accused it of "crossing red lines," and expressed solidarity with Iran;  According to reports, the Lebanese government conveyed a message to Hezbollah that it alone decided whether or not to go to war. A senior Hezbollah figure said the organization was satisfied with issuing a condemnation and did not plan to respond militarily against Israel; The Houthis claimed that they had attacked targets in Israel in coordination with the Iranians; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq condemned Israel for violating Iraqi airspace during the attacks on Iran and threatened to take action against American interests if the United States joined the fighting alongside Israel. It was reported that the Iraqi prime minister conveyed messages to the militia leaders that he would act against them if they intervened in the war; Iran built the military capabilities of the Hezbollah-led "resistance axis" as a deterrent against Israel and as part of its response capabilities in the event of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The responses of the organizations were limited to condemnations, indicating the "resistance axis" had been weakened by Israel during the fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon since October 7, 2023. In ITIC assessment, in light of the strategic changes in the Middle East, Hezbollah is currently restrained and the Lebanese government has, for now, successfully imposed its will on the organization. The Shi'ite militias in Iraq are also reluctant to intervene because of pressure from the Iraqi government. Therefore, at this stage, the "resistance axis" organizations, except the Houthis, will most likely not join the fighting. However, active American involvement alongside Israel could lead to an active response by the "resistance axis," especially in Iraq.
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The Armed Palestinian Terrorist Organizations in Lebanon

 The Palestinian terrorist organizations have maintained an armed presence in the Lebanese refugee camps for decades without intervention by the authorities. Because of the Palestinians' involvement in the Lebanese civil war in the 1970s and reluctance to take action against the Palestinian "struggle," the authorities did nothing about the Palestinian weapons in Lebanon.
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