Ad Hoc Studies

The Global Sumud (“Perseverance”) Flotilla in the Service of Hamas

The Global Sumud Flotilla set sail from Barcelona with the objective of “breaking the blockade on the Gaza Strip,” expected to be the largest since Israel imposed the naval blockade on the Gaza Strip in 2007. Among the participants are Hamas supporters who expressed support for the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack and massacre. Read more...

Is South Syria a Terrorist Threat to Israel? The Islamic Resistance Front in Syria, a Test Case

During the Syrian Civil War, which broke out in 2011, the area of south Syria became an arena for the activity of Salafi-jihadist terrorist organizations in addition to Hezbollah and the Iranian Qods Force, which sought to establish another front against Israel based on local operatives and Shi'ite militias; The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 led to the removal of most of the Iranian-backed elements from the Syrian Golan area and to the takeover of south Syria by the rebel forces and the IDF, but new groups began to appear in the area seeking to attack IDF forces stationed in the Syrian Golan and to push them back beyond the border. As a result, the IDF increased its activity to find weapons in south Syria, carried out targeted killings and detained terrorist operatives in the area, some of them belonging to the Qods Force and Hamas; At the beginning of 2025, an organization calling itself the Islamic Resistance Front in Syria – Men of Heroism began publishing statements attacking the Israeli presence in Syrian territory and issuing claims of responsibility for military actions targeting IDF forces in south Syria. Despite doubts about its existence and actual support on the ground, the Resistance Front claimed it was organized and structured, cooperating and allied with other groups whose declared goal was to expel the "occupiers" from Syrian soil; The Resistance Front also claimed it did not depend on other organizations and was not subordinate to other states, but declared its affiliation with the "resistance axis" and complete support for Iran, Hezbollah and the Palestinian terrorist organizations; In ITIC assessment, the Resistance Front may be an attempt by Iran and Hezbollah to reactivate the network they constructed under the Assad regime to attack IDF forces operating in south Syria or inside Israel, and thereby provoke an Israeli military response against the security forces of the al-Shara regime, which would further destabilize Syria. However, despite its prominent presence on social media and the abundance of statements issued in its name, there is still no conclusive evidence that the Resistance Front in fact exists or that it possesses significant military capabilities. Its claims of cooperation and alliances with other organizations in Syria have also not yet materialized. Read more...

Iranian Backing for the Houthis during the Gaza Strip War: the Seizure of the Al-Sharwa as a Test Case

Iran began transferring large-scale arms shipments to the Houthis in 2009, with the amounts increasing after the Houthi takeover of Sanaa and the coalition established to act against the Houthis led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2014–2015. From Iran's perspective, backing the Houthis enables the Islamic Republic to gain a foothold in the strategic Red Sea region on Saudi Arabia's border and helps strengthen the "resistance axis" against Israel; Since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, five attempts to smuggle weapons and other military equipment to the Houthis, allegedly sent by Iran, have been foiled. The contraband items included components for ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, UAVs, radar devices, and advanced systems for communications, control and signal jamming; On June 27, 2025, Yemeni forces opposed to the Houthis seized the vessel al-Sharwa, which carried more than 750 tons of weapons and military equipment disguised as civilian goods, including hundreds of cruise missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ship missiles, advanced warheads, and hundreds of UAV engines, along with instruction manuals in Persian; Recorded confessions of the ship's seven crew members revealed the existence of a broad Iran-Houthi smuggling network which began operating in 2013 and spans countries from the Middle East to Africa. The confessions exposed the smuggling routes from Iran to the Houthis and the identities of senior Houthis involved in operating the network who are in contact with the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah; Iranian officials denied that Tehran transferred munitions to the Houthis and claimed it was American propaganda intended to divert attention from [alleged] "Zionist crimes"; In ITIC assessment the seizure of the weapons and the exposure of the Iran-Houthi smuggling network indicate Iranian efforts to back the Houthis and suggest there were many other shipments which were not intercepted and did reach the Houthis. Despite the seizure of the al-Sharwa, it can be assumed that Iran and the Houthis will continue their efforts to smuggle weapons through routes that bypass American and Allied monitoring and control measures in the Red Sea. In addition, the use of boats which do not require complex mechanical systems for unloading enables the Houthis to continue their smuggling activities despite Israel's damage to their seaports. Read more...

Lebanese Government Decides to Disarm Hezbollah – Positions of Power Actors

On August 5, 2025, the Lebanese government instructed the army to prepare a plan to disarm all armed militias, including Hezbollah, by the end of the current year. Two days later, the government approved the principles submitted in a document by the American special envoy, Thomas Barrack, which included a timetable for disarmament. Ministers from Hezbollah and Amal left the meetings before they ended; The president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, and the prime minister, Nawaf Salam, noted after the government meetings that the state would implement the state's monopoly on weapons and ensure its sovereignty over its territory, despite the complexity of the task; Hezbollah made it clear that it would ignore the government's decisions and warned that no one could disarm the "resistance." The organization stated that it was not willing to discuss its weapons before state authorities took action to end the "Israeli aggression." Hezbollah and Amal were reportedly considering toppling the government in a vote of no confidence in the Lebanese Parliament; Hezbollah supporters held rallies in its strongholds across the country, while articles in Hezbollah-affiliated media accused Aoun and Salam of acting in the service of the United States and Saudi Arabia; Hezbollah's political opponents welcomed the government's decision to disarm the organization, calling it a "final decision" with which Hezbollah had to comply. They stressed that the weapons in Hezbollah's hands had only damaged Lebanon; Senior Iranian officials expressed support for Hezbollah and dismissed the decision to disarm it. In response, the Lebanese foreign ministry condemned Iran's meddling in internal Lebanese affairs, and politicians called for the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador; In ITIC assessment, the Lebanese government will continue to exert pressure on Hezbollah and try to continue dialoguing with it so that it obeys the government's decision and disarms, while the Lebanese army will continue to work with UNIFIL to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure in south Lebanon. However, Hezbollah will find it difficult to cooperate due to the combination of the uncompromising "resistance" ideology against Israel, the expectation of reconstruction funds from Iran, and the fear that its opponents will exploit its disarming to attack the Shi'ite community in Lebanon. As a result, it becomes increasingly likely that internal clashes will begin, which could deteriorate into armed confrontations and harm politicians leading the pro-disarmament line. Read more...

Possible Iranian Terrorist Attacks Abroad Following the Israel-Iran War

Iran uses global terrorism to promote its national interests, including attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in response to actions attributed to Israel, such as the attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and the elimination of senior Iranian and "resistance axis" figures; Iranian terrorist activity is supervised and directed by the Qods Force of the Revolutionary Guards and the Ministry of Intelligence. To obscure direct Iranian involvement, for the most part the attacks are carried out by proxy organizations, especially Hezbollah, local operatives, and criminal organizations; Following the Israel-Iran War, June 13 to 24, 2025, during which Israel eliminated dozens of Iranian commanders and attacked nuclear facilities and other strategic Iranian capabilities, Iran may, as part of its response, attempt to attack Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide. The arrest of one suspect who planned an attack on Israelis in Cyprus and of another who photographed Jewish targets in Germany, both of whom operated under Qods Force direction, were early signs the threat was manifesting itself; In ITIC assessment, the unprecedented extent of the damage suffered by Iran, and its need to restore its image and create a balance of deterrence to keep Israel from taking further action, will increase Iran's motivation to attack Israeli and Jewish targets and assets around the world. As in the past, Iranian efforts to exact a price from Israel in the form of a showcase attack abroad can be expected to continue over time, using the wide range of capabilities, networks and facilities available to Iranian intelligence and security services in various countries, while Israel and friendly intelligence services continue to work against them. Read more...

Iran’s Use of Surface-to-Surface Cluster Missiles as a Manifestation of State Terrorism

The Iranian regime has used terrorism against Israeli targets for many years to promote its interests, including deterrence and revenge. Its global terrorist attacks deliberately target civilians and it continuously supports a series of proxy terrorist organizations in the Middle East and provides them with weapons with which to attack the home front in Israel; The recent Israel-Iran War revealed an additional aspect of Iran's use of terrorism against Israel, involving the direct firing of surface-to-surface missiles at population centers. Iran deliberately targeted the home front despite its claim that the missiles allegedly targeted strategic installations and military bases; The most glaring example of Iranian surface-to-surface missile terrorism was the use of the Khorramshahr-4 missile, publicly unveiled in Iran in 2023, defined as a long-range strategic ballistic missile which carries approximately 80 small cluster bombs, which scatter indiscriminately and cause extensive damage. During the war, Iran conducted the missile’s first operational use, causing widespread damage; In ITIC assessment, the concept behind developing surface-to-surface missiles like the Khorramshahr-4 and launching them at Israeli territory was to cause maximum damage to civilians and serve as a tool of terrorism to sow fear and disrupt daily life. As such, the Khorramshahr-4 is another form of Iranian terrorism targeting civilian populations, setting a dangerous international precedent in the use of long-range cluster surface-to-surface missiles as a form of state terrorism. Read more...

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