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Ad Hoc Studies

Hamas Activity to Restore Security Governance in the Gaza Strip after the Ceasefire

The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip which began on October 10, 2025, provided Hamas with an opportunity to deploy its security forces in areas evacuated by the IDF and to demonstrate governance, despite the severe damage they suffered during the war; The Hamas security forces focused on fighting local clans accused of collaboration with Israel or identified as power centers which might threaten the movement's position in the Strip. The security forces carried out raids and arrests, confiscated equipment, and executed "collaborators" in full view of local residents; Hamas violence received support from the "resistance" [terrorist] organizations in the Gaza Strip and the umbrella organizations of clans which disowned the "collaborators" among them, but provoked angry reactions from the Palestinian Authority and the United States. However, Hamas claimed that their activity was intended to prevent "anarchy and chaos," but reportedly agreed to stop public executions; In ITIC assessment, as long as there is no actual change in the control of the Gaza Strip as part of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, in which Hamas is supposed to relinquish power and disarm, the movement can be expected to continue using its security forces to attack any groups which might threaten it. The objective of using force, especially the executions, was to instill fear in the local population and ensure that Hamas retained influence even if it relinquished its governmental power centers. However, if fighting against Israel resumes, the militias and clans opposed to Hamas can be expected to take action to expand their areas of influence throughout the Strip.
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Instructions Given by Yahya al-Sinwar for the October 7, 2023 Attack and Massacre

After Operation Guardian of the Walls (or "The Sword of Jerusalem Battle," as Hamas calls it) in May 2021, the Hamas leadership, led by Yahya al-Sinwar, leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, began planning a campaign to realize the vision of "the destruction of Israel."; In addition to the Hamas leadership's strategic coordination with Iran and Hezbollah, al-Sinwar personally participated in planning the terrorist attack and massacre carried out by the organization's military wing; A document handwritten by al-Sinwar in August 2022, which was found by the IDF in the Gaza Strip, detailed his instructions, from the deceptions in the weeks before the invasion to the conduct of invasion itself, based on the understanding that the Israeli defense measures along the border would not be able to stop the waves of attacking terrorists; According to the document, al-Sinwar kept the plan secret from the other terrorist organizations operating in the Gaza Strip, intending to involve them only in subsequent waves after Hamas had secured control of Israeli territory; Al-Sinwar expressed his confidence that the Hamas offensive would lead to a multi-front campaign involving Israeli Arabs, Judea and Samaria, and east Jerusalem, as well as an invasion of Israel's north by Hezbollah; A central part of the document is dedicated to the psychology of the attack, with al-Sinwar's explicit instructions to document Hamas terrorist operatives indiscriminately slaughtering civilians, trampling soldiers' bodies, burning residential neighborhoods, and blowing up tanks. The documentation of the atrocities was intended not only for internal use but was planned as a psychological tool to shock and terrorize the Israeli public and send a message of power to "resistance" operatives in the region; The document shows al-Sinwar's control over all the details of the invasion as it was carried out during the early hours of the attack on October 7, 2023. In ITIC assessment, al-Sinwar was not content with a large-scale terrorist attack or with sending a message but aspired to a complete strategic change on the ground through prolonged physical control of command centers, communication hubs, and IDF bases to leverage Israel's initial confusion and establish a new reality before the IDF or the international community could respond.
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Reactions to the Wave of Recognition of a Palestinian State

About ten countries, including France, Britain, Canada and Australia, announced their recognition of a Palestinian state, bringing the number of countries recognizing "Palestine" to 159 of the 193 UN member states. The announcements came after the UN General Assembly adopted the "New York Declaration," which supports advancing the two-state solution as the basis for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; The Palestinian Authority welcomed the recognition and called for practical steps which would enable the establishment of the state of "Palestine." Hamas said that the recognition was the result of the October 7, 2023 attack and the organization would continue with armed "resistance." However, Palestinian Internet users doubted that the wave of diplomatic recognition would end the war in the Gaza Strip or improve the humanitarian situation; In the United States, the countries that recognized a Palestinian state were condemned, while in Italy and Germany it was called a premature step which would not advance negotiations to end the war and resolve the conflict. According to the Arab world, recognition gave Palestinians hope for realizing their rights; In ITIC assessment, adopting the New York Declaration and the additional recognition of a Palestinian state are a cognitive achievement for the Palestinians after the Palestinian issue had been pushed to the sidelines in recent years, and strengthen Hamas' arguments about the "historical importance" of the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack and massacre. However, the actual establishment of a Palestinian state is still in the distant future because of Israel's control of territory and resources, the weakness of the Palestinian Authority and its support for terrorism, in addition to the security situation in the Gaza Strip and Hamas' continued terrorist activity. American opposition to the recognition of a Palestinian state and its ability to veto a Security Council resolution to establish a Palestinian state leave the current move at the declarative level.
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The Anniversary of Nasrallah’s Death and the Challenges facing Hezbollah

Hezbollah held formal ceremonies to mark the anniversary of the pager attack and the deaths of secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor Hashem Safi al-Din, among others. The ceremonies exposed the challenges facing the organization, led by the demand it disarms, its status in Lebanon, continued Israeli attacks and economic and other internal difficulties; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem and others used the ceremonies as a platform to reiterate that the "resistance" would not disarm and threatened violence if disarmament were implemented by force. On the other hand, President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam reiterated their intention, with increasing American pressure, to achieve a state monopoly on weapons: Aoun was the more cautious of the two, fearing civil war; Hezbollah ignored the ban on projecting pictures of Nasrallah and Safi al-Din on the tourist site of the Raouche [Pigeon] Rock in Beirut, causing the tensions between the organization and Prime Minister Salam to resurface; Salam demanded the arrest of those responsible and threatened to resign; In ITIC assessment, the Lebanese state's inability to enforce its sovereignty over Hezbollah, despite the blows inflicted on the organization in the past two years, reflects the Lebanon's fundamental weakness and the difficulty of the international system to motivate the state's institutions to act. Hezbollah, on the other hand, maintains its military capabilities and has a wide enough circle of loyalists to allow it to challenge the decisions of the government of which it is a part and to use threats of force to achieve its goals. However, the continuing attempts to disarm Hezbollah and the continued Israeli enforcement of the ceasefire agreement may cause Hezbollah to use force in the domestic arena, or attempt to act against Israel as a "common Hezbollah and Lebanon enemy," despite its weakness and its restraint so far. 
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The Global Sumud (“Perseverance”) Flotilla to the Gaza Strip – Update (September 25, 2025)

The Global Sumud Flotilla, which was launched at the end of August 2025, continues its progress in the Mediterranean Sea with about 50 vessels and hundreds of activists with the aim of “breaking the siege on the Gaza Strip.”; The flotilla participants claimed that they had been subjected to a series of drone attacks and various attempts to disrupt the proper course of the voyage and prevent the vessels from reaching the Gaza Strip. As a result, Spain and Italy announced the dispatch of military ships to accompany the flotilla and assist in evacuation operations if necessary; Israel has made it clear that it will prevent the flotilla from entering the Gaza Strip due to the ongoing fighting. However, it has not claimed responsibility for the alleged attacks against the vessels. The Israeli proposal that the vessels dock in Ashkelon and that humanitarian aid be transferred to the Gaza Strip was rejected by the flotilla organizers; The organizers’ refusal to heed calls to halt the voyage to the Gaza Strip, together with the military escort provided to the flotilla’s vessels and Israel’s determination to prevent the ships from reaching their destination, are creating a complex situation that could lead to violent clashes in the coming days. In the ITIC's assessment, this development could play into the hands of the flotilla organizers and the Hamas movement, who view the flotilla as a propaganda tool intended to undermine Israel’s standing on the international stage.
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Israel Attacks the Hamas Leadership in Doha

September 9, 2025, Israel attacked a building in Doha, Qatar, where the Hamas negotiating team was thought to be holding a meeting, led by Khalil al-Hayya, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip. The results of the attack were inconclusive and it is still unclear who was harmed. Hamas reported that five of al-Hayya's close associates were killed, including his son and his chief of staff, but claimed there were no movement leadership casualties. However, so far no pictures have been released of some of the senior figures, including al-Hayya, and their condition is unknown; Hamas called the attack a "crime" and proof that Israel did not want to end the war or reach an agreement for the release of the hostages; Qatar called the attack "state terrorism" and threatened a harsh response, warning that it would reconsider its continued involvement as mediator in the negotiations for the release of the hostages and ending the war in the Gaza Strip. An Arab-Islamic emergency summit convened in Doha and condemned the attack, and called for a reexamination of relations with Israel without citing practical measures; The American president publicly criticized the attack, although he stressed the need to eliminate Hamas. Other Western countries also condemned Israel for violating Qatar's sovereignty; In ITIC assessment, in the short term, the attack shook the Qatari-Egyptian mediation channel and could delay the indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages. On the other hand, the added pressure on the Hamas leadership and its increased security might make them compromise on their demands. On the deterrent level, Israel demonstrated its ability and determination to act against senior Hamas figures even in places they considered "safe," thereby limiting their freedom of maneuver and forcing them to invest resources in securing their safety.
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