Ad Hoc Studies

Hezbollah’s Activity in Venezuela and How the Recent American Arrest of Maduro May Affect It

For decades Latin America has been an arena of significant activity for Hezbollah, based on a broad Shi'ite Lebanese diaspora residing in various countries across the continent. Venezuela, particularly under the socialist regime led by Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro, became an ally of Hezbollah and Iran because of their shared ideological and anti-American positions, and enabled the organization to turn the country into a logistical, financial and operational center; American sanctions and indictments exposed how Hezbollah operatives, at times with the assistance of senior figures in the Venezuelan regime, established money-laundering and drug-trafficking networks that helped finance the organization's terrorist activity. Hezbollah also brought thousands of operatives into Venezuela and established military training facilities which enabled it to promote terrorist activity against Western and Israeli targets in Latin America; In early January 2026, Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested in a raid carried out by American special forces and transferred for trial in the United States. The administration said it would control Venezuela for the foreseeable future and emphasized that it would no longer allow a Hezbollah and Iranian presence in the country; Hezbollah condemned the American operation in Venezuela, while in the opinion of Lebanese media outlets, the developments would have a negative effect on Hezbollah's funding routes and on its operational capabilities in Latin America; In ITIC assessment, the American action will be a blow to Hezbollah and curtail its freedom of action in Venezuela, adding to the series of unprecedented challenges with which Hezbollah has been dealing since the end of the war against Israel in November 2024. Closing sources of funding in Venezuela, which were based on drug trafficking and money laundering, will most likely exacerbate the organization's financial crisis as it seeks to reconstruct its military and civilian capabilities and is also required to respond to the demands of its supporters, who are waiting their homes, damaged in the war, to be rebuilt. Meanwhile, American control of Venezuela will most likely neutralize the terrorist facilities and networks established by Hezbollah and Iran in the country, thereby weakening their ability to use them for terrorist attacks in Latin America. Read more...

The Completion of the First Phase of Hezbollah’s Disarmament

On January 8, 2026, the commander of the Lebanese army, Rodolph Haykal, informed the Lebanese government that the first phase of the state's monopoly on weapons had been successfully implemented south of the Litani River except for areas under IDF control; The government ministers opposed to Hezbollah demanded a schedule for continuing disarmament, while Hezbollah and Amal ministers conditioned progress on halting Israeli "violations." The government instructed the army to prepare a plan for disarmament north of the Litani River, but no schedule was set; Hezbollah did not directly relate to the army's announcement, reiterating its position that Lebanon in general and the organization in particular had fully implemented the ceasefire agreement, and Israel had to honor its commitments; Lebanon's president, prime minister and parliament speaker welcomed the announcement, noting that the army had to be provided with the tools required for its missions. Prime Minister Salam said the role of the "resistance" had ended with Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000, and that today only the state and the army defended Lebanon; Hezbollah's political opponents were dissatisfied with the delay in disarming the organization, noting that made it difficult for the country to rehabilitate itself after the war. The Lebanese foreign minister met in Beirut with the Iranian foreign minister and made it clear to him that Hezbollah had to disarm in accordance with the government decision; Lebanon is apparently taking a time-out in implementing the state's monopoly on weapons. The first phase, south of the Litani River, is being represented as an achievement, but with no decision to move northward and an attempt to buy time with the argument that first Israel has to end its "violations" of the ceasefire agreement. In ITIC assessment, in the foreseeable future the army will expand its deployment in south Lebanon and make preparations for disarmament north of the Litani River, but without a binding schedule because of Hezbollah's lack of cooperation. In all probability, transitioning to the second phase will remain a declarative goal, dependent mainly on Israeli and international pressure and on an internal political consensus which has yet to ripen. Read more...

Jihad Activity under the al-Sharaa Regime in Syria, a Potential Threat to Israel

The overthrow of the Assad regime in December 2024 and the rise of the new government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) changed the map of Salafi-jihadist terrorism in Syria; Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (the strongest of the jihadist organizations which opposed the Assad regime) disbanded, along with its affiliated militias, which helped bring down the previous regime. Their operatives were integrated into the security forces of the new government, including foreign jihad fighters; A few jihad organizations which had cooperated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham opposed the pragmatic positions of the new government and refused to integrate into its ranks. The most prominent example is the Saraya Ansar al-Sunna, which attacked the security forces and Alawite civilians; The regime change in Syria and the absence of a governmental or security presence across large parts of the country provided ISIS with an opportunity to reorganize and establish itself in the Syrian desert in the east of the country and to expand its activity into populated areas near Damascus and the regions of Aleppo, Homs and southern Syria. However, Syria's joining the United States-led international coalition helped reduce the number of the organization's attacks during 2025. Despite the hostile positions of the Salafi-jihadist organizations still active in Syria toward Israel, they have not attacked IDF forces deployed in southern Syria or against Israeli territory. However, the detention of an ISIS operative in southern Syria indicated the potential threat; In ITIC assessment, the growing cooperation between the Syrian regime and the international coalition will make the situation on the ground harder for ISIS, even though the organization will continue its efforts to establish itself in areas where the regime's control remains weak, such as the Syrian desert, and to attack Syrian security forces and civilian localities. Other jihad organizations opposing the regime may also attempt to undermine the stability of the al-Sharaa government. Given that the extra-establishment jihadist elements are focused on the internal Syrian arena, their desire to harm IDF forces or Israeli territory is in all probability a lower priority, although they may try to build facilities in southern Syria that would enable them to threaten Israeli interests in the future. Read more...

Potential Terrorist Threats to Israeli and Jewish Interests in Australia

On December 14, 2025, two Muslim terrorists, who according to assessments by the Australian authorities had been inspired by ISIS, shot participants at a Hanukkah event at Bondi Beach in Sydney. Fifteen people were killed; The attack was the culmination of a wave of antisemitism which has been directed at the Jewish community in Australia since the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre in Israel on October 7, 2023; The October 7 attack was followed by large demonstrations led by pro-Palestinian organizations and fueled a discourse of hatred and anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement, with broad support from the Muslim community in Australia. At protest demonstrations support was voiced for Hamas, despite its being designated a terrorist organization in Australia, alongside calls for the destruction of Israel; Australian authorities identified Iran as responsible for several antisemitic attacks, following which the Iranian ambassador was expelled and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was declared a terrorism-supporting entity; As the attack in Sydney revealed, figures associated with extreme Islamist worldviews, including Muslim preachers against whom no legal measures have been taken by the authorities, also play a prominent role; The expanding circle of threats against Israeli and Jewish interests in Australia poses a significant challenge for the country's authorities, who are attempting to balance the need to combat antisemitic incitement and the threats it fuels with the need to preserve liberal values, especially freedom of expression, religion and assembly for pro-Palestinian organizations protesting Israeli activity in the Gaza Strip. In ITIC assessment, as long as the authorities do not take concrete action against the promotion of antisemitic incitement, Hamas, Iran and global jihad organizations will find fertile ground in Australia for recruiting operatives who will turn antisemitic and anti-Israeli rhetoric into acts of violence like the Bondi Beach attack. Read more...

The Doctrine of Dr. Mahmoud al-Zahar, Hamas’ “Expert on Jewish Affairs”

Antisemitism has been at the core of Hamas' ideology since its establishment in 1988, reflected both in the Hamas Charter (1988) and in the movement's education system; One of the leading representatives of Hamas' antisemitism is Dr. Mahmoud al-Zahar, one of the movement's founders and its senior spokesmen, who is Hamas' self-styled "expert on Jewish affairs." Over the years, he has referred to the Jews in his writings and statements using antisemitic motifs to justify the need to expel the Jews from "Palestine."; The book Hatred of the Jews – A Historical Legacy, which al-Zahar published in 2020 and copies of which were found by IDF forces during the war in the Gaza Strip, summarizes the core elements of his antisemitic doctrine. He described the Jews as a base, greedy, immoral, cruel, corrupt and treacherous, using blood libels and conspiracies based on The Protocols of the Elders of Zion; Al-Zahar also justified the Holocaust, while claiming that close ties existed between Nazi Germany and the "Zionists," stemming from their "identical interests."; Since Hamas is aware that making antisemitic remarks harms it in the international arena, the movement seeks to downplay its views when dealing with foreigners, especially Western foreigners. A document the IDF brought back from the Gaza Strip had instructions for the "Palestinian spokesperson in the world," one of which was a prohibition against the use of anti-Jewish expressions and an emphasis on the struggle against the "Zionist occupier" and not against Judaism or the Jews; Despite the attempt to market a different face to the international community, the doctrine presented by Mahmoud al-Zahar over the years, and published only in Arabic, is evidence of the Hamas leadership's antisemitism. It dehumanizes Jews and provided inspiration for the atrocities committed during the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023. Read more...

How Hamas perceived Israel’s rounds of deterrence, according to a document found in the Gaza Strip

A document prepared by the center for military and strategic studies of Hamas' military wing, dated September 9, 2023, which was brought back from the Gaza Strip by the IDF during the war, analyzed Israeli policy regarding the rounds of fighting in the Gaza Strip since Hamas seized control in 2006; According to the document, for many years Israel relied on a strategy of preemptive strike, but the strengthening of the "resistance" movements led by Hamas and Hezbollah, which could obstruct Israeli capabilities, led Israel to shift to short rounds of fighting of limited intensity; In the assessment of the document's authors, since Israel failed to achieve its objectives in Operation Cast Lead, foremost of which was overthrowing Hamas rule, it moved to presenting vague objectives alongside a focus on managing the conflict and preserving deterrence, with the objective of weakening Hamas without defeating it; Operation Guardian of the Walls in May 2021 is defined as a formative event in which Hamas deviated from the pattern of the previous rounds by linking the Gaza Strip to events in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria and by rousing Israeli Arabs to "resistance."; In the authors' assessment, Israel did not abandon the idea of a preemptive strike, particularly given the failure of Operation Guardian of the Walls, but was not in a position to build a new equation of deterrence. Therefore, it focused on conflict management, risk management and neutralizing threats. Accordingly, the recommendation to the Hamas leadership was to prepare for a new opening strike which would trigger another round of fighting, but also to initiate an unexpected confrontation that would break the recurring pattern and make Israel's leadership uncertain; In ITIC assessment, the study is part of the effort by Hamas' intelligence apparatuses to provide the movement's top decision-makers with a full strategic understanding of Israel's perception and conduct, at a time when they were in the final stages of planning the decisive attack against Israel. The picture emerging from the study, according to which Israel is not interested in overthrowing Hamas rule and is focused on limited rounds with known outcomes, together with the recommendation by the document's authors to act in an unexpected manner, confirmed al-Sinwar and Deif's confidence that the attack and massacre would be successful, and which were carried out on October 7, 2023, less than a month after the document was written. Read more...

Previous years bulletins

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009