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Hamas attempts to ignite Judea and Samaria (Updated November 22, 2023)

Since October 7, 2023, Hamas has been working to ignite Judea and Samaria to open another front that will engage Israel's security forces, part of the concept the "unity of the arenas". Senior Hamas terrorists, led by Saleh al-'Arouri, s, are again urging the residents of Judea, Samaria, east Jerusalem and Israeli Arabs to join the campaign, attack settlers, clash with Israeli security forces and carry out attacks, including inside Israeli territory. They called on the operatives of the Palestinian Authority's (PA) security apparatus to use their weapons to carry out terrorist attacks against Israel. Not wanting to open another front and to foil Hamas' plans, immediately after the war began, the Israeli security forces increased their counterterrorism activities in Judea, Samaria and east Jerusalem. Their actions are directed primarily against the Hamas terrorist infrastructure and its leadership. So far, the security forces have arrested about 1,850 wanted persons, about 1,100 of them Hamas operatives. The PA also understood the danger and the possibility it would lose control. Mahmoud Abbas instructed the Palestinian security forces to increase their activity in the Palestinian cities, warning that otherwise the situation could become chaotic. In practice, the public’s response to Hamas' calls has been limited. The increase in the Israeli security forces' counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria increase in the number of Palestinian deaths. The ministry of health in Ramallah reported that since the beginning of the war in Gaza, 217 Palestinians had been killed. In addition, since the beginning of the war there has been a significant increase in clashes between Jewish settlers and Palestinians. Despite the public's identification with Hamas, for now the situation on the ground is apparently under control and the mobilization of the Palestinian public in Judea and Samaria in favor of Hamas and the Gaza Strip is relatively limited.
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Operation Iron Swords The fighting on the Israel-Lebanon border

On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah opened another front against Israel from Lebanon. In recent weeks, Hezbollah has escalated its attacks. Since the beginning of the fighting, Israel has been subjected to 324 attacks from Lebanon, 309 carried out by Hezbollah and 15 by other terrorist organizations. The attacks mainly include the firing of anti-tank missiles, rockets and mortar shells. Recently, Hezbollah began using other weapons, such as heavy Barkan rockets and armed UAVs. Most of cities, towns and villages and IDF posts attacked are along the border or within a few kilometers of it. Since the beginning of the fighting, 86 Hezbollah terrorist operatives and 14 operatives from other terrorist organizations have been killed. Nine Israelis have been killed, six soldiers and three civilians. Hezbollah has rarely mentioned the concept of "the unity of the arenas,". In ITIC assessment, the basic premise of the concept was that Israel would stand alone in an all-out war against many fronts manipulated by Iran, a vision that has been partially realized. Nasrallah has emphasized that it is the Palestinians' war, and Hezbollah's activity against Israel is part of the "support front" of Iran and its various affiliates for Hamas. During the fighting Hezbollah is making an effort to learn how the IDF operates, gauge its capabilities and make adjustments for its current and future activities. At this stage, Hezbollah is operating "below the threshold of war". In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah will continue its activities at the current level with local escalations according to events. However, it is possible that as the IDF's fighting against Hamas progresses and intensifies, and Hezbollah senses a danger to Hamas' survival, it may consider significantly expanding the fighting against Israel, but only in coordination with Lebanese internal constraints and Iran's position.
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Findings of the IDF forces at a Palestinian Islamic Jihad outpost in the Gaza Strip

On November 16, 2023, after 12 hours of fighting, IDF forces captured an outpost of the commander of the northern area of the al-Quds Battalions, the military-terrorist wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the second largest organization in the Gaza Strip whose operatives participate in the fighting against the IDF. The outpost was used for training operatives of the organization's military-terrorist wing and at the same time as a factory for the manufacture of weapons.
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Iran, the war in Gaza, and the “convergence of the arenas”

In recent days, senior Iranian officials have renewed their threats to expand the war in the Gaza Strip to additional fronts if a ceasefire is not reached soon and Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip do not stop. At the same time, senior Iranian officials continue to claim that Iran’s proxy organizations in the region operate independently, make decisions based on their interests, and are not subject to instructions from Tehran. At this stage, Iran continues to act according to gradual escalation steps to prevent the opening of a full-scale front against Israel. Iran is doing so while avoiding involving Hezbollah in an all-out campaign, which is liable to exact a heavy price from the Lebanese organization and perhaps even from Iran itself. However, Iran seeks a continuation of gradual escalation, which will exact a price from Israel and the United States through attacks by its proxies in the region. So far, the pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq have been involved in dozens of attacks against American bases in Syria and Iraq. At the same time, the Houthis in Yemen have joined the campaign mainly by launching missiles and drones at Israel. At the same time, there is an ongoing escalation in the fighting between the IDF and Hezbollah, both quantitatively and in terms of the quality of Hezbollah’s attacks along the border with Israel.
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International activity against Hamas since the outbreak of Operation Iron Swords

Not only Israel, but the United States, the UK, the EU, Canada and Australia had designated Hamas as a terrorist organization even before Operation Iron Swords began on October 7, 2023. New Zealand and Paraguay designated only the Izz al-Din Qassam Brigades, Hamas’ military-terrorist wing, as a terrorist organization, while Japan designates Hamas as a terrorist organization only regarding freezing its assets. Since the beginning of the war, Switzerland announced its intention to designate Hamas as a terrorist organization. Since the beginning of the war, some countries have taken practical steps against Hamas. The United States imposed two rounds of sanctions on a currency exchange network which helped finance Hamas activities, on Iranian aid to Hamas, and on companies linked to Hamas' asset portfolio. Germany announced a complete ban on the activities of Hamas and its related organizations, and Japan imposed sanctions on a currency-exchange network that served Hamas.
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The price Gazans pay for criticizing Hamas

Since the beginning of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, and especially since the entry of IDF forces, the pressure on the civilian residents of the Gaza Strip has increased significantly. They are trying to cope with the price they have been forced to pay and to internalize the extent of the destruction caused by the IDF’s massive attacks. A significant part of the public was forced to leave their homes, either to shelters or to the south of the Gaza Strip, and the number of casualties increases daily. The majority of the public does not dare to openly criticize the Hamas leadership, it has recently become evident that the Gazans are slowly realizing that the Hamas leadership cares about itself and its image and does not care about the public’s situation or fate. Nevertheless, the continuation of the ground maneuver in the Gaza Strip, the high level of casualties, the heavy damage to the infrastructure, the exposure of the use of the population by Hamas and other organizations as human shields and the weakness of Hamas, may lead the public in the Gaza Strip to understand the price of losing the war, and criticism may gain momentum and even reach public expressions from authorized and influential sources.
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