Ad Hoc Studies

Escalation and Thwarting of Terrorism in Northern Samaria

On the night of August 27-28, 2024, Israeli security forces launched counterterrorism operations in Jenin and its environs, in the Nur Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm, and the al-Far’a refugee camp in the Tubas area. The operation in Jenin continues (as of September 2, 2024), while the other two operations have been completed. An IDF soldier was killed and at least ten other members of the Israeli security forces were wounded; During the operation, the forces killed more than 25 terrorist operatives in airstrikes and exchanges of fire, including commanders of terrorist networks in Jenin and Tulkarm, detained wanted persons, located explosives laboratories and large quantities of weapons, and destroyed IEDs planted on traffic routes; Concurrently with the IDF operations, two terrorist attacks were carried out. Two car bombs driven by terrorists exploded in the Gush Etzion area, wounding three security personnel. Three policemen were shot dead in a shooting attack in the South Hebron Hills. A car bomb was found near the community of Ateret; During 2024, some processes and trends can be identified that contributed to the increase in terrorist activity in Judea and Samaria, especially in northern Samaria, which in the ITIC’s assessment are expected to continue even after the activity of the Israeli security forces: efforts by Hamas and Iran to encourage terrorist activity through incitement, directing terrorist attacks, and smuggling weapons and money; cooperation between armed terrorist networks belonging to various Palestinian organizations; increasing use of powerful IEDs for terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria and inside Israel; increase attempts to carry out shooting attacks targeting Israeli communities in the Seam Zone. Read more...

The Organizations Assisting Hezbollah in Combat Against Israel

On October 8, 2023, following the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre carried out the previous day, Hezbollah opened a front against Israel from Lebanon "in support of the Gaza Strip." Since the beginning of the fighting, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Amal, al-Jama'ah al-Islamiyya, the Lebanese Resistance Brigades and the Syrian Social-Nationalist Party have joined Hezbollah in the fighting, to a greater or lesser degree; Unlike Hezbollah, which has so far claimed responsibility for more than 2,200 attacks, the auxiliary organizations have claimed responsibility for "only" a few dozens. Most were rocket fire targeting military and civilian sites in northern Israel, along with attempts to penetrate the border and exchanges of fire with IDF forces; Although there are ideological and religious differences between Hezbollah and most of the other organizations, they have been cooperating since the days of the Israeli presence in south Lebanon and the Second Lebanon War; In ITIC assessment, the auxiliary organizations' operations are fully coordinated with Hezbollah, and sometimes the operate in concert. As long as the fighting between Israel and Lebanon is waged within the framework of the so-called "equations," Hezbollah can be expected to limit the organizations' activities. However, in the event of further escalation and an all-out war, Hezbollah will most likely loosen the reins and give them more freedom to attack Israeli territory, IDF forces and civilians. Read more...

Reactions to Hezbollah’s Attack in Retaliation for the Killing of Fuad Shukr

On August 25, 2024, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a combined rocket-UAV attack on military targets in Israel in retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr, the organization's military commander, in an Israeli targeted attack in Beirut on July 30, 2024. Hezbollah claimed the attack had achieved its goals. Earlier, a hundred Israeli Air Force fighter jets carried out a pre-emptive strike against thousands of Hezbollah rocket and missile launchers in south Lebanon which were aimed at northern and central Israel; Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah secretary general, claimed 340 rockets had been fired at IDF bases in northern Israel, after which a large number of UAVs were launched deep into Israeli territory, hitting an aerial defense base and an intelligence base. He added that if the results were not "satisfactory" Hezbollah "reserved the right" to carry out further attacks; Contrary to Nasrallah's claim, the aerial defense and intelligence bases were not attacked. Israel's aerial defense forces, the Israeli Air Force and the Israeli Navy intercepted most of the rocket and UAV launches. One IDF soldier was killed and two were injured by an interceptor explosion near a Navy ship. A woman was injured by shrapnel in Acre and extensive property damage was caused; Iran and the "resistance axis" organizations, including Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, praised Hezbollah for the attack on Israel; Social media users in Lebanon and the Arab world mocked Hezbollah's attack; Hezbollah made an effort to establish the false narrative that the IDF's preemptive attack was unsuccessful, did not cause significant damage to the organization, and claimed success in hitting important targets in Israel. That was because Hezbollah wanted to justify its activities to the citizens of Lebanon, hide the extent of the damage caused to the organization by the preemptive attack, and possibly because the extent of the damage had not yet been fully calculated; In ITIC assessment , after Hezbollah finishes retaliating for the death of Fuad Shukr, its attacks on the northern border will continue according to the organization's initial use of force and "equations," which includes proactive fire near the border and reactive fire further away with varying extent, depending on the strength and nature of the IDF's proactive activity. Read more...

Hezbollah Issues Video of Its Imad 4 Underground Facility: Reactions and Implications

On August 16, 2024, Hezbollah released a video of "Imad 4," an underground facility for storing precision missiles and heavy rockets, claiming it missiles could hit any target in Israel, from the north to Eilat; Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets affiliated with Hezbollah stated the objective of the video was to inform Israel of Hezbollah's accurate long-range missile capabilities, the extent of the organization's fortified underground system, and to warn Israel not to start an all-out war; Lebanese opposition politicians, social activists and journalists criticized Hezbollah after the video was released, claiming it was mostly based on artificial intelligence and accusing Hezbollah of making all of Lebanon a target for the Israeli attacks; Revealing the facility underscored Hezbollah's perception of the importance of its tunnel system for storing weapons, protecting terrorist operatives, fighting and attacking Israel; In ITIC assessment, the video was released for purposes of psychological warfare to glorify its military capability and deter Israel from escalation and initiating an all-out war. Releasing the video during negotiations for a ceasefire in the war in the Gaza Strip may be regarded as part of Hezbollah's "support front" for Hamas and an attempt to put pressure on Israel to accept Hamas' demands. Read more...

Internal Lebanese criticism of Hezbollah in the wake of its escalation and the threat of war

Since Hezbollah began attacking Israel on October 8, 2023, there has been internal criticism in Lebanon of the organization's decision to fight against Israel, claiming it was "supporting" the Gaza Strip. The murder of 12 children and teenagers by a rocket fired by Hezbollah at Majdal Shams on July 27, 2024, and its threats to respond "strongly" to Israel's elimination of Fuad Shukr, its military commander, in Beirut on July 31, 2024, increased the Lebanese public's fear that the situation would deteriorate from border fighting in south Lebanon into an all-out war; Public criticism comes mainly from a handful of politicians and media figures, most of them Christians known to oppose Hezbollah. They accuse Hezbollah of acting contrary to the national interest and endangering the lives of the Lebanese by fighting an unnecessary war for the sake of Iran; More sharp criticism against Hezbollah appears on social networks, where posts call the organization "terrorist" and express public support for the death of Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah. Some public criticism has also appeared in the form of signs opposing the war, but no one accepted responsibility for them; Criticism of Hezbollah is also reflected in the reception received by the Shi'ites who fled the Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut in fear of Israeli attacks; Hassan Nasrallah warned it played into Israel's hands and called on those who did not support the organization "not to stab the 'resistance' in the back." Despite the response, apparently so far the criticism has not had a significant impact on the decisions Hezbollah makes. Read more...

The terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip exploit the civilian infrastructure for terrorist activities

On August 10, 2024, the Israeli Air Force attacked the headquarters of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the al-Tabi'in school complex in Gaza City. Despite false Hamas claims of intentional IDF attacks on civilians, the IDF spokesperson reported that Hamas had turned schools, where civilians took shelter, into command and control centers, sites for storing weapons and carrying out terrorist activities against IDF forces in the Gaza Strip and against the territory of the State of Israel; Since the beginning of the war on October 7, 2023, a substantial amount of evidence has accumulated about the use the terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip, especially Hamas, make of civilian facilities and the civilian population for the purpose of waging war; The ongoing fighting and the expansion of the IDF's activity to areas such as Rafah and Khan Yunis caused the terrorist organizations to forfeit military assets, and the use civilian facilities gained momentum, as did carrying out terrorist activity from within the population. The terrorist organizations use UNRWA facilities, shelters and humanitarian areas where displaced residents are located for terrorist activities; The strategy of constructing terrorist assets within the civilian space, which constitutes a war crime and a crime against humanity, enables the terrorist organizations to reduce damage to themselves, knowing they will have a kind of immunity from IDF operations, including counterterrorist activities, since insofar as is possible the IDF will not harm civilians or attack institutions such as hospitals, schools and civilian shelter areas. The strategy also enables the terrorist organizations to spread incitement and false propaganda as part of their regional and international battle for hearts and minds by representing Israel as attacking civilian institutions and innocent civilians. Read more...

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