Ad Hoc Studies

The Israel-Hezbollah War ended in November 2024, and since then Hezbollah has been reorganizing to repair the damage it suffered, including to the top leadership, and to adapt to Na'im Qassem as the new secretary general; Alongside reports of disputes and power struggles between the "pragmatic" figures led by Qassem, and the proponents of an extremist approach, senior organization figures claimed that Hezbollah had recovered and rebuilt the leadership structure, adapting it to the continued Israeli targeted killings as part of enforcement actions, and preparations for a new war; According to reports, at the beginning of February 2026, Hezbollah's leadership accepted the resignation of Wafiq Safa, who had headed the Coordination and Liaison Unit since 1987 and was considered close to Hassan Nasrallah and one of the most prominent and influential figures in the organization's top leadership. Media commentaries opined that he resigned because of his disputes with Qassem, but also noted that the move was part of the secretary general's efforts to reorganize Hezbollah's hierarchy by tightening his control over the organization's media, and political and "security" forces, while relying on figures loyal to himself and with lower media prominence, in order to reduce the risk of being targeted by Israel; In ITIC assessment, the termination of Wafiq Safa's role was intended to stabilize Hezbollah's leadership, reduce the vulnerability of senior figures and consolidate the secretary general's control after the profound shock undergone by the organization. However, concentrating authority in the secretary general's office and weakening veteran power centers may awake latent frictions and undermine internal balances. The success of the move will be partially measured by the organization's ability to preserve cohesion, prevent further intelligence leaks and redefine Hezbollah's relations with the Lebanese state without relinquishing its core principles. Read more...

For decades Latin America has been an arena of significant activity for Hezbollah, based on a broad Shi'ite Lebanese diaspora residing in various countries across the continent. Venezuela, particularly under the socialist regime led by Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro, became an ally of Hezbollah and Iran because of their shared ideological and anti-American positions, and enabled the organization to turn the country into a logistical, financial and operational center; American sanctions and indictments exposed how Hezbollah operatives, at times with the assistance of senior figures in the Venezuelan regime, established money-laundering and drug-trafficking networks that helped finance the organization's terrorist activity. Hezbollah also brought thousands of operatives into Venezuela and established military training facilities which enabled it to promote terrorist activity against Western and Israeli targets in Latin America; In early January 2026, Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested in a raid carried out by American special forces and transferred for trial in the United States. The administration said it would control Venezuela for the foreseeable future and emphasized that it would no longer allow a Hezbollah and Iranian presence in the country; Hezbollah condemned the American operation in Venezuela, while in the opinion of Lebanese media outlets, the developments would have a negative effect on Hezbollah's funding routes and on its operational capabilities in Latin America; In ITIC assessment, the American action will be a blow to Hezbollah and curtail its freedom of action in Venezuela, adding to the series of unprecedented challenges with which Hezbollah has been dealing since the end of the war against Israel in November 2024. Closing sources of funding in Venezuela, which were based on drug trafficking and money laundering, will most likely exacerbate the organization's financial crisis as it seeks to reconstruct its military and civilian capabilities and is also required to respond to the demands of its supporters, who are waiting their homes, damaged in the war, to be rebuilt. Meanwhile, American control of Venezuela will most likely neutralize the terrorist facilities and networks established by Hezbollah and Iran in the country, thereby weakening their ability to use them for terrorist attacks in Latin America. Read more...